DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There is trough in the Plains with another in the Gulf of Alaska. The Plains trough will travel east, being replaced by a ridge around midweek. The ridge west and trough east pattern should be familiar through the end of the month.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

The trough in the Gulf of Alaska will send some disturbances over the ridge and into the eastern trough later this week and weekend. But probably take a short break before sending more through later next week.

The U.S. and European models are relatively similar in the upper levels, but not on details at the surface. I will use a blend but favor the European.

A system will move into the Plains over the weekend and then move east through the Corn Belt early next week. Showers may continue across the south for a few days later. We should see another disturbance moving through northern areas later next week and weekend. Temperatures will generally be warm west of the Rockies and cooler east.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH SUN...108 AT RIO GRANDE VILLAGE, TX

LOW SUN...20 AT STEHEKIN, WA

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT SUNDAY...CARIBOU, ME 1.79 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6- TO 10-DAY PERIOD:

There is trough in the Plains with another in the Gulf of Alaska. The Plains trough will travel east, being replaced by a ridge around midweek. The ridge west and trough east pattern should be familiar through the end of the month.

The trough in the Gulf of Alaska will send some disturbances over the ridge and into the eastern trough later this week and weekend. But probably take a short break before sending more through later next week.

The U.S. and European models are relatively similar in the upper levels, but not on details at the surface. I will use a blend but favor the European.

A system will move into the Plains over the weekend and then move east through the Corn Belt early next week. Showers may continue across the south for a few days later. We should see another disturbance moving through northern areas later next week and weekend. Temperatures will generally be warm west of the Rockies and cooler east.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A system moved back into the region over the weekend and produced scattered showers, which will continue through probably Wednesday. Heavier rainfall over the last week may have slowed planting progress and some patchy frost was noted over the weekend as well. But the rainfall will be good for early growth. Temperatures are cold this week and we may see some more patchy frost, but damage should be limited. Temperatures should flip warmer after Memorial Day.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers erupted across much of the region on Sunday, producing areas of heavy rain and severe weather that continues through early Tuesday before the system pushes off to the east. Many areas will welcome the rain, especially in Nebraska that has been so dry, but wheat areas in the southwest will see very little and have trended drier, which may be concerning for filling wheat.

Additional disturbances will bring showers through at various points this week and a more concentrated batch of heavier thunderstorms may be possible this weekend into early next week, but models are trying to decide where.

Temperatures remain milder, with slower growth for plants, but less stress to areas that remain drier as well.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A major severe weather event rolled through on Friday with widespread damage and even some areas of blowing dust. Another storm system will roll through with areas of heavy rain and thunderstorms through Thursday. Southern stretches could see more severe weather occurring with this system. The widespread rainfall should be beneficial for most areas, though some areas across the south are still a little too wet and this will not help that situation. Temperatures will be much colder than normal for most areas this entire week, which could make for some patchy frost under the right conditions. However, that is unlikely to occur or be widespread if it does.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (CORN/SOYBEANS/COTTON/TRANSPORTATION): A front brought areas of showers and thunderstorms over the weekend as well as some severe weather. Another system will push a front through on Tuesday with more showers and potential severe weather. More rain is expected with another front this weekend and next week. There have only been limited dry days across the region all spring, which has built in a lot of soil moisture, but also caused ponding and flooding for extended periods as well. Though there may be a better stretch of drier weather later this week, temperatures will be much cooler as well, causing drainage of water to be slower.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (WHEAT/CANOLA): A system ended showers over the east on Friday, but another brought in more to the west and south on Sunday. This system will keep showers going across western areas into Wednesday and more showers may be possible in Alberta to end the week. Recent rainfall may have slowed the rapid pace of planting, but should have improved soil moisture for a lot of areas. Those that missed out in western Saskatchewan are forecast to see some decent rainfall this week to help out. Overall, conditions are still largely favorable across the region, though temperatures remain cool for most of this week and may lead to some patchy areas of frost.

BRAZIL (CORN/WINTER WHEAT): A front brought showers into far southern areas of the Brazil this weekend and will bounce around there throughout the week, offering some more potential rainfall. That is coming mostly for the state of Rio Grande do Sul, a winter wheat state that would enjoy some rain for establishment. Showers may make it into Parana and help filling corn in some limited fashion. Otherwise, the country stays drier, forcing safrinha corn to use up the remaining subsoil moisture.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): A front brought deluges of rain to central portions of the country over the weekend, with significant flooding and damage occurring there. Many of these areas are still in the midst of harvest and could have seen some hits to quality and production. The front may remain active with scattered showers across the north this week. Outside of the flooding, overall rainfall has been beneficial for winter wheat planting and establishment.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): A low spinning in the east brought widespread showers, including some pockets of heavier rain to parched areas in and around Poland. Though temperatures were also cooler, the rainfall has been overall beneficial and even spread into eastern Germany. That system will continue showers through Tuesday across the east. Another system moving into Spain on Sunday will move across the Mediterranean with scattered showers this week and we could see more systems moving through northern areas later this week, weekend, and into next week as well. Drier conditions over the last few months have been worrisome for some in France, Germany, and the UK, but multiple chances are starting to show up to bring needed precipitation. They need to hurry for winter crops though, which are getting into reproductive stages of growth.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Streaks of scattered showers continued across the region over the weekend and an upper-low in eastern Europe will keep showers going through at least Wednesday. A wetter pattern over the last couple of weeks has been beneficial, but rainfall deficits are still very large in many areas. Though we could see another round of showers across late this week and weekend, the pattern is starting to turn a little drier, especially for southwestern Russia, which may impact winter wheat and emerging corn.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Some showers developed across the east coast over the weekend, but the majority of the wheat belt was dry. That largely continues this week as well though some showers may sneak into the west on Thursday, then into the east on Friday into the weekend. Large-scale dryness and drought continue to develop over some important areas of the country's wheat belt, however, unfavorable for winter wheat and canola establishment.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/CORN/SOYBEANS): Despite some recent rain, drier conditions in central portions of China are stressing wheat and canola that are in reproductive to filling stages. It may also stress some corn and soybean areas that have just been planted as well. A couple of fronts will come through to end the month, but are forecast to produce limited precipitation. Northern corn and soybean areas are in better shape with soil moisture, but have also been very cold, which has likely slowed planting progress. Showers here are also forecast to be more isolated for the rest of the month.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers. Temperatures falling below normal.

East: Scattered showers. Temperatures falling below normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated to scattered showers through Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday.

Isolated to scattered showers Friday. Temperatures below normal north and above normal south Monday, near to below normal Tuesday, below normal Wednesday-Friday.

East: Isolated to scattered showers through Friday. Temperatures near to below normal Monday-Tuesday, below normal Wednesday-Friday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday. Temperatures below normal Saturday-Tuesday, near to below normal Wednesday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers Monday into Tuesday. Isolated showers Wednesday-Thursday. Isolated to scattered showers Friday. Temperatures below normal west and above normal east Monday, near to below normal Tuesday-Friday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Wednesday.

Temperatures near to below normal Saturday-Wednesday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Scattered showers south. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Friday. Temperatures above normal Monday-Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday-Friday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Friday. Temperatures above normal through Friday.

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