Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A pattern-changing storm system moving through the north after good planting progress, dryness returning to the southwestern Plains, and patches of dryness in China and Australia are the weather factors driving the markets Thursday.

STORMS ROLLING THROUGH THE MIDWEST

An upper-low has been spreading showers across much of the Midwest this week. That ends Thursday, but a system will move through Thursday and Friday with scattered showers and thunderstorms. It should leave behind a front near the Ohio River that should remain active Friday into Saturday. Both periods will include severe storms. Overall, much of the region is looking at least at chances for rainfall, which are needed more in the northwest than elsewhere. Another system should roll through early-mid next week with more rainfall potential as part of a more active and milder pattern to end the month.

HEAVY RAIN FOR NEBRASKA, SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR REST OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

A larger system moving across the Northern Plains brought some heavy thunderstorms to parts of Nebraska on Wednesday that continues for Thursday, which was sorely needed, but did not cover the whole state where drought has been growing. A better system should move through Sunday into early next week with a much better chance at more widespread showers across the region, which would include Nebraska again. Southern areas will not mind a break in the rainfall, but it could start to dry out if next week's system misses. Those in the southwest are less likely to see precipitation and a return to dryness may occur.

HEAVY RAIN, MASSIVE DROP IN TEMPERATURE FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

A large system is moving through the Northern Plains with moderate to heavy rainfall through Friday across the Dakotas. This should be a good shot to get some needed rain after many have finished planting already. However, colder temperatures should follow the system into next week and may cause some patchy frost in some areas. There should be more chances for rain that follow this weekend and next week as well.

DELTA CONTINUES TO BE WET

A front will settle into the Delta on Friday that could bring showers through the weekend as well as some severe weather. Breaks have not been very long between showers, which has left the region very wet and is likely causing some issues, including flooding on the Lower Mississippi River that has been very slow to fall. Several disturbances moving through next week could bring additional showers, but an overall drying trend is expected next week.

HEAVY RAIN FOR EASTERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES

A system is wrapping up in the Northern Plains, but will continue scattered showers in the eastern Canadian Prairies through Friday. Temperatures are trending colder, and frosts may return by the weekend in some areas. The weather pattern looks to stay active next week with multiple chances for scattered showers as well. That could slow down the planting progress, which is already ahead of schedule, but would be helpful to build some moisture in for the newly planted crops.

DRIER IN BRAZIL

With the wet season over, Brazil relies on fronts coming up from Argentina to supply southern areas with some rainfall, which would be favorable for winter wheat planting and establishment. Corn will largely draw upon built up soil moisture from the wet season to fill kernels. A front will move into southern areas early next week with some showers.

GERMANY TOO DRY

A low in the Atlantic continues showers across Spain on Thursday and has been beneficial for western Europe over the last several days. Another system is dropping showers through eastern areas and continues them into next week. Another low or two could move through southern portions of the continent next week with scattered showers. Germany is now being left between systems and fronts and is trending drier and could use some rain.

MORE RAIN FOR BLACK SEA REGION

Bands of showers continue to move through the Black Sea region as the weather pattern tries to reverse the drought in the region. It is a slow process, however. Though some areas have been a little left out, the pattern has been much more favorable for getting some needed precipitation. It is also coming with colder air, which may produce patchy frost in some areas across the north and west. This pattern should last through next week as well.

LITTLE RAINFALL FOR AUSTRALIA

Despite some streaky showers in eastern Australia through Friday, the forecast continues to call for below-normal rainfall for most of the wheat belt, which will continue to be stressful for wheat and canola establishment.

LIMITED RAINFALL OPPORTUNITIES IN CHINA

Despite some recent rain, drier conditions in central portions of China are stressing wheat and canola that are in reproductive to filling stages. It may also stress some corn and soybean areas that have just been planted as well. A couple of fronts will come through over the next two weeks, but with limited precipitation. Northern areas, largely corn and soybean areas, are in better shape. But they will be on a much cooler streak into next week. Frosts are generally not forecast, but could be possible in some locations.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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