DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There is a cutoff low moving off the East Coast with a trough in the Plains.

The Plains trough will clear the continent over the weekend, though another will move into the West this weekend and then eastward next week.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

Eventually, a ridge will form in the West later next week and a perpetual trough will stay active over the East. Systems will generally flow over the top of the ridge and into the East to end the month.

The U.S. and European models are relatively similar. I will use a blend but favor the European.

A system will move into the Central Plains early next week and move east with widespread showers for much of the Corn Belt. Additional disturbances may continue pockets and periods of showers for the rest of the week for the middle of the country. Temperatures will be much cooler across the North, but warmer across the South. Some cooler air may make it down into the South late next week or weekend.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH WED...112 AT RIO GRANDE VILLAGE, TX

LOW WED...16 AT LUND, NV

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT WEDNESDAY...GREENSBORO, SC 2.00 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6- TO 10-DAY PERIOD:

There is a cutoff low moving off the East Coast with a trough in the Plains. The Plains trough will clear the continent over the weekend, though another will move into the West this weekend and then eastward next week. Eventually, a ridge will form in the West later next week and a perpetual trough will stay active over the East. Systems will generally flow over the top of the ridge and into the East to end the month.

The U.S. and European models are relatively similar. I will use a blend but favor the European.

A system will move into the Central Plains early next week and move east with widespread showers for much of the Corn Belt. Additional disturbances may continue pockets and periods of showers for the rest of the week for the middle of the country. Temperatures will be much cooler across the North, but warmer across the South. Some cooler air may make it down into the South late next week or weekend.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A larger system is moving through with moderate to heavy rainfall through Friday across the Dakotas. This should be a good shot to get some needed rain after many have finished planting already. However, colder temperatures should follow the system into next week, and may cause some patchy frost in some areas. There should be more chances for rain that follow this weekend and next week as well.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A larger system moving across the Northern Plains brought some heavy thunderstorms to parts of Nebraska on Wednesday that continues for Thursday, which was sorely needed, but did not cover the whole state. A better system should move through Sunday into early next week with a much better chance at more widespread showers across the region, which would include Nebraska again. Southern areas will not mind a break in the rainfall but it could start to dry out if next week's system misses. Those in the southwest are less likely to see precipitation and a return to dryness may occur.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): An upper-low has been spreading showers across much of the region this week. That ends Thursday, but a system will move through Thursday and Friday with scattered showers and thunderstorms.

It should leave behind a front near the Ohio River that should remain active Friday into Saturday. Overall, much of the region is looking at least at chances for rainfall, which are needed more in the northwest than elsewhere.

Another system should roll through early-mid next week with more rainfall potential as part of a more active and milder pattern to end the month.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (CORN/SOYBEANS/COTTON/TRANSPORTATION): A front will settle into the area on Friday that could bring showers through the weekend as well as some severe weather. Breaks have not been very long between showers, which has left the region very wet and is likely causing some issues, including flooding on the Lower Mississippi River that has been very slow to fall. Several disturbances moving through next week could bring additional showers, but an overall drying trend is expected next week.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (WHEAT/CANOLA): A system is wrapping up in the Northern Plains, but will continue scattered showers in the East through Friday.

Temperatures are trending colder and frosts may return by the weekend in some areas. The weather pattern looks to stay active next week with multiple chances for scattered showers as well. That could slow down the planting progress, which is already ahead of schedule, but would be helpful to build some moisture in for the newly planted crops.

BRAZIL (CORN/WINTER WHEAT): With the wet season over, Brazil relies on fronts coming up from Argentina to supply southern areas with some rainfall, which would be favorable for winter wheat planting and establishment. Corn will largely draw upon built up soil moisture from the wet season to fill kernels. A front will move into southern areas early next week with some showers.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Good harvest conditions have been in place for a while now for corn and soybeans, as well as early planting for winter wheat. A complicated front will waffle over the country through the weekend and bring scattered showers. More showers are possible next week, which would be helpful for winter wheat establishment.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): A low in the Atlantic continues showers across Spain on Thursday and has been beneficial for eastern areas over the last several days. Another system is dropping showers through eastern areas and continues into next week. Another low or two could move through southern portions of the continent next week with scattered showers. Germany is now being left between systems and fronts and is trending drier and could use some rain.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Bands of showers continue to move through the region as the weather pattern tries to reverse the drought in the region. It is a slow process, however. Though some areas have been a little left out, the pattern has been much more favorable for getting some needed precipitation. It is also coming with colder air, which may produce patchy frost in some areas across the north and west. This pattern should last through next week as well.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Despite some streaky showers in the east through Friday, the forecast continues to call for below-normal rainfall for most of the wheat belt, which will continue to be stressful for wheat and canola establishment.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/CORN/SOYBEANS): Despite some recent rain, drier conditions in central portions of China are stressing wheat and canola that are in reproductive to filling stages. It may also stress some corn and soybean areas that have just been planted as well. A couple of fronts will come through over the next two weeks, but with limited precipitation. Northern areas, largely corn and soybean areas, are in better shape. But they will be on a much cooler streak into next week. Frosts are generally not forecast, but could be possible in some locations.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Mostly dry. Temperatures above to well above normal.

East: Isolated showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated to scattered showers through Friday, mostly north. Mostly dry Saturday-Sunday. Scattered showers Monday. Temperatures above to well above normal Thursday, near to above normal Friday, below normal north and above normal south Saturday-Monday.

East: Isolated to scattered showers through Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday.

Isolated to scattered showers Monday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Friday, near to above normal Saturday, near normal Sunday, near to below normal Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Saturday. Temperatures below normal north and near to above normal south Tuesday, near to below normal Wednesday-Saturday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers north. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers north Thursday. Isolated to scattered showers southeast Friday-Saturday. Scattered showers Sunday-Monday. Temperatures near to below normal west and above normal east Thursday-Friday, near to below normal north and near to above normal south Saturday-Monday.

6- to 10- day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Saturday.

Temperatures near to below normal Tuesday-Thursday, near normal Friday-Saturday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Saturday. Scattered showers south Sunday.

Temperatures above normal through Sunday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Sunday. Temperatures above normal through Sunday.

(c) Copyright 2025 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.