Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Recent heavy rain in the Southeast, a pattern-changing storm system moving through the north later this week, and patches of dryness in China and Australia are the weather factors driving the markets Tuesday.

SHOWERY IN THE MIDWEST

An upper-low in the Southeast is spreading showers across much of the Midwest over the next several days. Then a system will move through Thursday and Friday with scattered showers and thunderstorms. It should leave behind a front near the Ohio River that should remain active Friday into Saturday. Overall, much of the region is looking at least at chances for rainfall, which are needed more in the northwest than elsewhere. Another system should roll through early next week with more rainfall potential that would be beneficial as well.

BETTER RAIN CHANCES FOR NEBRASKA

A larger system will move across the Northern Plains midweek and could bring showers to the Central and Southern Plains. Nebraska has a good chance of seeing some much-needed rainfall. A better system should move through this weekend into early next week though. That has a much better chance at more widespread showers, which would include Nebraska again. Southern areas will not mind a break in the rainfall, but Nebraska certainly needs the moisture. This pattern is better for that.

RAIN CHANCES RETURN FOR DRYING NORTHERN PLAINS

Some streaks of showers continue in the Northern Plains on Tuesday, and it remains breezy. But a larger system will move through with more widespread and potentially moderate to heavy rainfall for Wednesday and Thursday. Showers may linger over eastern areas on Friday. This should be a good shot to get some needed rain after many have finished planting already. However, colder temperatures should follow the system into next week and may cause some patchy frost in some areas. There should be more chances for rain that follow this weekend and next week as well. If the rain disappoints, then we could see drought returning.

DELTA CONTINUES TO BE VERY WET

Scattered showers left the Delta on Monday, and a short dry stretch is expected. A front will settle into the area on Friday that could bring showers through the weekend as well as some severe weather. Breaks have not been very long between showers, which has left the region very wet and is likely causing some issues, including flooding on the Lower Mississippi River that has been very slow to fall.

HEAVY RAIN FORECAST FOR EASTERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES

Some limited showers and breezy winds continue in the Canadian Prairies on Tuesday. This week will be more chaotic as several impulses bring scattered showers through the region throughout the week and may be heavy in the east later this week. It is possible that some snow mixes in over Manitoba late this week as well. Temperatures will be trending colder throughout the week and frosts may return by the weekend in some areas. The weather pattern looks to stay active next week with multiple chances for precipitation as well. That could slow down the planting progress, which is already ahead of schedule, but would be helpful to build some moisture in for the newly planted crops.

DRIER AGAIN IN BRAZIL

With the wet season over, Brazil relies on fronts coming up from Argentina to supply southern areas with some rainfall, which would be favorable for winter wheat planting and establishment. Corn will largely draw upon built up soil moisture from the wet season to fill kernels. A front may move into southern areas early next week with some showers.

GERMANY TOO DRY

A low in the Atlantic continues showers across France and the UK through Wednesday, and Spain through Thursday, being beneficial for most areas. Another system will drop showers through eastern areas later this week and could stick around for several days if it gets cutoff from the jet stream. Germany is now being left between systems and fronts and is trending drier and could use some rain.

MORE RAIN FOR BLACK SEA REGION

Bands of showers continue to move through the Black Sea region this week as the weather pattern tries to reverse the drought in the region. It is a slow process, however. Though some areas have been a little left out, the pattern has been much more favorable for getting some needed precipitation. It is also coming with colder air, which may produce patchy frost in some areas across the north and west throughout the week. This pattern may last through next week as well.

LITTLE RAINFALL FOR AUSTRALIA

Despite some spotty showers in eastern Australia later this week, the forecast continues to call for below-normal rainfall and largely above-normal temperatures, which will continue to be stressful for wheat and canola establishment.

LIMITED RAINFALL OPPORTUNITIES IN CHINA

Drier conditions in central portions of China are stressing wheat and canola that are in reproductive to filling stages. It may also stress some corn and soybean areas that have just been planted as well. A couple of fronts will come through over the next two weeks, but with limited precipitation. Northern areas, largely corn and soybean areas, are in better shape with more seasonable temperatures. But they will be on a much cooler streak later this week into next week. Frosts are generally not forecast but could be possible as the event nears.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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