Ag Weather Forum
North-Central US Faces Dramatic Temperature Drop and Weekend Frost Threat
It has been an early taste of summer in the North-Central United States and eastern Canadian Prairies during the last several days. Highs in the upper 80s and 90s Fahrenheit have been widespread, and a couple of spots have hit the century mark.
This area of the continent usually sees large swings in temperatures during the spring, and a burst of heat is not out of the ordinary in May. But neither will the drastic swing back later this week. Heat continues on May 13, and for some areas again on May 14. But a large system in the Pacific Northwest is going to change those temperatures dramatically during the next few days.
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The system will move into the Northern Plains on May 14, then wrap up quickly across the Upper Midwest for May 15 into May 16. For some spots from the Dakotas up into Manitoba, high temperatures will drop 40-50 degrees Fahrenheit behind the system, going from mid- to upper-90s down to upper 40s and 50s by May 16-17. Morning lows, which had been summerlike in the 60s to even lower 70s, may drop down into the lower- to mid-30s, threatening frosts during the weekend and possibly early next week.
To go along with the drastic change in temperatures, the system will bring breezy winds and some areas of heavy rain. Models are picking out the eastern Dakotas, much of agricultural Manitoba, and western Minnesota with 1 to 3 inches of rainfall for the event, which should generally last much of May 15-16. The harsh drop in temperatures may allow for some mixing of snow as the precipitation winds down over Manitoba on May 16. Parts of Nebraska, Iowa and Wisconsin may be in for patches of heavy rain as well. This region needs rainfall after this very hot and dry stretch of weather.
Farther east in the Midwest, scattered thunderstorms are forecast and may be severe on May 15-16. Heavy rain may fall here as well.
This system will change the weather pattern, likely for the rest of May. By eliminating the heat, the storm system sets up a more active weather pattern through the country, whereby additional storm systems will move through. This could be a favorable change for Nebraska, which has seen very little precipitation this spring and has some of the worst drought east of the Rockies outside of southwestern Texas.
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John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com
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