DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There is a cutoff low in the South-Central U.S. with a ridge across the North-Central U.S. There is another trough in the Gulf of Alaska. The South-Central low will stall in the Southeast into next week, leaving around the middle of next week.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

The Alaskan trough will move into the West next week and battle the ridge across the middle of the continent. It should win to some degree, changing the pattern to a more active and milder one for the second half of May.

The U.S. and European models are relatively similar. I will use a blend but favor the European.

Showers are likely to expand from the Southeast north into the Midwest and across the East Coast midweek as an upper-level low finally leaves. Another system is likely to move into the Plains in the middle of next week with scattered showers that should move across the northern tier of the country for the end of next week. We are likely to see another system develop in the Plains next weekend as well.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH THU...103 AT DEATH VALLEY, CA

LOW THU...16 AT PETER SINKS, UT AND COVINGTON, MI

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT THURSDAY...ASHEVILLE, NC 2.72 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6- TO 10-DAY PERIOD:

There is a cutoff low in the South-Central U.S. with a ridge across the North-Central U.S. There is another trough in the Gulf of Alaska. The South-Central low will stall in the Southeast into next week, leaving around the middle of next week. The Alaskan trough will move into the West next week and battle the ridge across the middle of the continent. It should win to some degree, changing the pattern to a more active and milder one for the second half of May.

The U.S. and European models are relatively similar. I will use a blend but favor the European.

Showers are likely to expand from the Southeast north into the Midwest and across the East Coast midweek as an upper-level low finally leaves. Another system is likely to move into the Plains in the middle of next week with scattered showers that should move across the northern tier of the country for the end of next week. We are likely to see another system develop in the Plains next weekend as well.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Chances for showers are limited until the middle of next week, making for good planting progress. A changing pattern could bring through some more decent rainfall, but that is not guaranteed. Though drought reduction has occurred recently, a drier stretch may start turning the tables if the pattern doesn't get wetter next week.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): An upper-level low produced waves of showers and thunderstorms from Kansas southward this week. The rain has helped to lessen the drought in parts of the region like western Kansas, but also made for severe weather and flooding in Oklahoma and Texas. Much of Nebraska missed out, which continues to see drought building.

With showers largely gone, a drier stretch should last through a good portion of next week as well. A system will develop midweek, but probably produce showers north of the region. There should be better chances next weekend, but that could be a very long stretch of dryness to stress wheat and early corn and soybean development.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A cutoff low-pressure center brought some showers into far southern stretches of the region on Wednesday and Thursday. Otherwise, the region continues to be much drier, promoting lots of fieldwork. The low may bring back showers into parts of the region next week as it leaves. But overall, conditions should be improving for more planting progress and early growth. If this dry stretch lasts too long though, we may see dryness becoming an issue. The weather pattern is expected to change and become more active later next week, but that does not necessarily mean widespread rainfall. Any areas that get missed could see drought expanding.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (CORN/SOYBEANS/COTTON/TRANSPORTATION): Periods of showers continue into Monday as an upper-level low drifts around the region.

Flooding developed again and will keep water levels on the Lower Mississippi River awfully high. Drier conditions are generally forecast for next week to help drain wet soils.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (WHEAT/CANOLA): Overall dry conditions this week have promoted good planting conditions for much of the region. With overall good soil moisture in most areas too, the season is starting off in good shape. A system will move into the region Sunday and Monday with chances for widespread showers that will continue into much of next week, disrupting planting, but favorable for maintaining good soil moisture.

BRAZIL (CORN/WINTER WHEAT): With the wet season over, Brazil relies on fronts coming up from Argentina to supply southern areas with some rainfall, which would be favorable for winter wheat planting and establishment. Corn will largely draw upon built up soil moisture from the wet season to fill kernels.

Some heavy rain fell over the far southern state of Rio Grande do Sul on Thursday. Rain there will wane as it lifts north with a front over the weekend.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Several fronts have moved through this week with scattered showers. That may have disrupted fieldwork a bit, but may have improved soil moisture for wheat, which should start getting planted here shortly. Much of next week will be much drier, though another front should come through late next week and weekend.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Showers have been falling across the south this week, providing plenty of water for developing crops, but disrupting fieldwork in some areas. A small system is now spreading showers north into France and the UK, which continues this weekend and will be helpful for winter wheat there. Some areas across the northeast could use a drink of water, but fieldwork should be advancing rather quickly as well. A few showers will move through Poland this weekend, but more is needed and the outlook is not favorable.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Several disturbances continue to move along a stalled front through next week, producing widespread and much-needed rainfall for drier areas in the south and east. It is much colder in the northwest behind that front, but not enough to produce damaging frosts for too many areas. The colder air will be spreading southward this weekend, slowing crop growth.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Very little precipitation is forecast for the next ten days, which could start to be an issue for winter wheat and canola establishment. Drought in some areas of South Australia are expanding eastward and could develop elsewhere as well.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/CORN/SOYBEANS): Several systems are forecast to move through the region through next week. But while there was some good rain for the North China Plain for Thursday into Friday, many areas were left out or only saw light rain. The showers next week should be mostly light. That could start to hurt heading to filling wheat and emergent corn and soybeans.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Isolated showers south. Temperatures near to above normal.

East: Isolated showers south. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast:

West: Mostly dry through Sunday. Isolated showers south Monday-Tuesday.

Temperatures above normal north and near to below normal south Friday-Saturday, near to well above normal Sunday-Tuesday.

East: Mostly dry through Sunday. Isolated showers Monday-Tuesday. Temperatures near to below normal through Saturday, near normal Sunday, above normal Monday-Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated showers Wednesday-Sunday. Temperatures above to well above normal Wednesday-Saturday, near to above normal Sunday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures near to above normal north and below normal south.

Forecast: Isolated showers Friday. Mostly dry Saturday-Tuesday. Temperatures near to above normal north and below normal south through Monday, near to above normal Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated showers Wednesday-Friday. Scattered showers Saturday-Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal Wednesday-Sunday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Heavy rain south. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers Friday, north Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday-Tuesday.

Temperatures above normal Friday, near normal Saturday-Monday, above normal Tuesday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Friday. Isolated showers south Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday-Tuesday. Temperatures above normal through Tuesday.

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