Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Continued areas of heavy rain and severe weather across the South, fantastic planting conditions in the North, and patches of dryness in China and Australia are the weather factors driving the markets Thursday.

MUCH DRIER FOR MIDWEST

A cutoff low-pressure center is bringing a few showers into far southern stretches of the Midwest on Thursday. Otherwise, the region continues to be much drier, promoting lots of fieldwork. The low may bring back showers into parts of the region next week as it leaves. But overall, conditions should be improving for more planting progress and early growth. If this dry stretch lasts too long though, we may see dryness becoming an issue. The weather pattern is expected to change and become more active later next week, but that does not necessarily mean widespread rainfall. Any areas that get missed could see drought expanding.

SHOWERS WANING IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

An upper-level low continues to produce patches of showers and thunderstorms from Kansas southward Thursday and maybe Friday. The recent rain has helped to lessen the drought in parts of the region like western Kansas, but also made for severe weather and flooding in Oklahoma and Texas. Much of Nebraska has missed out, which continues to see drought building. A drier stretch is likely to develop that should last through a good portion of next week as well. A system will develop midweek, but probably produce showers north of the region. There should be better chances next weekend, but that could be a very long stretch of dryness to stress wheat and early corn and soybean development.

DRIER IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS

Chances for showers are limited in the Northern Plains until the middle of next week, making for good planting progress. A changing pattern could bring through some more decent rainfall, but that is not guaranteed. Though drought reduction has occurred recently, a drier stretch may start turning the tables if the pattern doesn't get wetter next week.

MORE RAIN FOR THE WET DELTA

Periods of showers continue through at least Friday but probably stick around through Monday as an upper-level low drifts around the Delta. Flooding developed again and will keep water levels on the Lower Mississippi River awfully high. Drier conditions are generally forecast for next week to help drain wet soils.

GOOD PLANTING CONDITIONS FOR CANADIAN PRAIRIES, SHOWERS NEXT WEEK

Overall dry conditions this week have promoted good planting conditions for much of the Canadian Prairies. With overall good soil moisture in most areas too, the season is starting off in good shape. A system will move into the region Sunday and Monday with chances for widespread showers that will continue into much of next week, disrupting planting, but favorable for maintaining soil moisture.

LIMITED SHOWERS FOR SOUTHERN BRAZIL

With the wet season over, Brazil relies on fronts coming up from Argentina to supply southern areas with some rainfall, which would be favorable for winter wheat planting and establishment. Corn will largely draw upon built up soil moisture from the wet season to fill kernels. Some showers are developing across the far southern state of Rio Grande do Sul with the best chances for more widespread showers as a front brings heavy rainfall to southern areas Friday, with waning showers as it moves north this weekend.

SCATTERED SHOWERS IN ARGENTINA

Several fronts are moving through Argentina this week with scattered showers. That may disrupt fieldwork a bit, but would improve soil moisture for wheat, which should start getting planted here shortly.

RAIN MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN, WESTERN EUROPE

Showers have been falling across southern Europe this week, providing plenty of water for developing crops, but disrupting fieldwork in some areas. A small system will spread showers north into France and the UK this weekend, which will be helpful for winter wheat there. Some areas across the northeast could use a drink of water, but fieldwork should be advancing rather quickly as well. A few showers will move through Poland this weekend, but more is needed, and the outlook is not favorable.

WIDESPREAD RAIN FOR BLACK SEA REGION

Several disturbances continue to move along a stalled front into next week, producing widespread and much-needed rainfall for drier areas in the southern and eastern Black Sea region. It is much colder in the northwest behind that front, but not enough to produce damaging frosts for too many areas. The colder air will be spreading southward this weekend, slowing crop growth.

LITTLE RAINFALL FOR AUSTRALIA

Very little precipitation is forecast in Australia for the next two weeks, which could start to be an issue for winter wheat and canola establishment. Drought in some areas of South Australia are expanding eastward and could develop elsewhere as well.

LIMITED RAINFALL OPPORTUNITIES IN CHINA

Several systems are forecast to move through China through next week and there should be some good rain for parts of the North China Plain for Thursday and Friday. But the potential for showers after that is spotty and mostly light. That could start to hurt heading to filling wheat and emergent corn and soybeans.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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