DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There is a low in the Northeast with a cutoff low in the Southern Plains. A ridge continues across the North-Central U.S. The Southern Plains low continues to very slowly move eastward underneath the ridge for the next several days, getting stuck in the Southeast through a good portion of next week as well.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

Another trough will move into the West next week and battle the ridge across the middle of the continent. It should win to some degree, changing the pattern to perhaps a more active one for the second half of May.

The U.S. and European models are relatively similar. I will use a blend but favor the GFS.

Showers are likely to continue through at least the first half of next week in the Southeast with the upper-level trough hanging around. As that leaves, it could spread showers north into the Midwest and across the East Coast midweek.

Another system is likely to move into the Plains in the middle of next week with scattered showers that should move across the northern tier of the country for the end of next week.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH TUE...102 AT RIO GRANDE VILLAGE, TX AND FAITH RANCH, TX

LOW TUE...18 AT RED LODGE, MT

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT TUESDAY...SAN ANGELO, TX 3.19 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6- TO 10-DAY PERIOD:

There is a low in the Northeast with a cutoff low in the Southern Plains. A ridge continues across the North-Central U.S. The Southern Plains low continues to very slowly move eastward underneath the ridge for the next several days, getting stuck in the Southeast through a good portion of next week as well. Another trough will move into the West next week and battle the ridge across the middle of the continent. It should win to some degree, changing the pattern to perhaps a more active one for the second half of May.

The U.S. and European models are relatively similar. I will use a blend but favor the GFS.

Showers are likely to continue through at least the first half of next week in the Southeast with the upper-level trough hanging around. As that leaves, it could spread showers north into the Midwest and across the East Coast midweek. Another system is likely to move into the Plains in the middle of next week with scattered showers that should move across the northern tier of the country for the end of next week.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Chances for showers are limited until the middle of next week, making for good planting progress. A changing pattern could bring through some more decent rainfall. Though drought reduction has occurred recently, a drier stretch may start turning the tables if the pattern doesn't get wetter next week.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): An upper-level low continues to produce waves of showers and thunderstorms from Kansas southward through Thursday. The rain will help lessen the drought in parts of the region like western Kansas, but also made for severe weather and flooding in Oklahoma and Texas. Much of Nebraska will remain drier though, which continues to see drought building. A drier stretch is likely to develop later this week that should last through a good portion of next week as well. A system will develop midweek, but probably produce showers north of the region. There should be better chances next weekend, but that could be a very long stretch of dryness to stress wheat and early corn and soybean development.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A cutoff low-pressure center system is leaving eastern portions of the region. Another cutoff low-pressure center may bring some showers into far southern stretches of the region for Wednesday and Thursday. Otherwise, the region should be much drier, promoting lots of fieldwork. The low may bring back showers into parts of the region next week as it leaves. But overall, conditions should be improving for more planting progress and early growth. If this dry stretch lasts too long though, we may see dryness becoming an issue. The weather pattern is expected to change and become more active later next week, but that does not necessarily mean widespread rainfall. Any areas that get missed could see drought expanding.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (CORN/SOYBEANS/COTTON/TRANSPORTATION): Scattered showers and heavy rain moved through on Tuesday and more periods of showers continue through at least Friday. Flooding developed again and will keep water levels on the Lower Mississippi River awfully high. Some showers may stick around into early next week, but drier conditions are generally forecast for next week to help drain wet soils.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (WHEAT/CANOLA): Overall dry conditions the rest of the week continue to promote good planting conditions. With overall good soil moisture in most of the region, the season is starting off in good shape. A system will move into the region Sunday and Monday with chances for widespread showers that will continue into much of next week, disrupting planting, but favorable for maintaining soil moisture.

BRAZIL (CORN/WINTER WHEAT): With the wet season over, Brazil relies on fronts coming up from Argentina to supply southern areas with some rainfall, which would be favorable for winter wheat planting and establishment. Corn will largely draw upon built up soil moisture from the wet season to fill kernels. Some showers will be possible across the far southern state of Rio Grande do Sul the next couple of days. But the best chance will be a front bringing heavy rainfall to southern areas Friday, then waning as it moves north this weekend.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Several fronts are moving through this week with scattered showers. That may disrupt fieldwork a bit, but would improve soil moisture for wheat, which should start getting planted here shortly.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Showers continue across the south, especially the southeast, for the rest of the week. A small system will spread showers north into France and the UK this weekend, which will be helpful for winter wheat. Some areas across the northeast could use a drink of water, but fieldwork should be advancing rather quickly as well. A few showers will move through Poland this weekend, but more is needed.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Several disturbances continue to move along a stalled front into next week, producing widespread and much-needed rainfall for drier areas in the south and east. It is much colder in the northwest behind that front, but not enough to produce damaging frosts for too many areas. The colder air will be spreading southward this weekend, slowing crop growth.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Very little precipitation is forecast for the next two weeks, which could start to be an issue for winter wheat and canola establishment. Drought in some areas of South Australia are expanding eastward and could develop elsewhere as well.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/CORN/SOYBEANS): Several systems are forecast to move through the region through next week and models have been increasing the rainfall potential for the North China Plain for Thursday and Friday. But the potential for showers after that is spotty and mostly light. That could start to hurt heading to filling wheat and emergent corn and soybeans.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal north and below normal south.

East: Scattered showers east. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated showers south Wednesday-Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday, above normal north and below normal south Friday-Sunday.

East: Isolated to scattered showers through Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday-Saturday, near normal Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Monday. Isolated showers Tuesday-Friday. Temperatures above normal Monday-Friday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers and heavy rain south. Temperatures near to above normal north and below normal south.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Friday. Mostly dry Saturday-Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal north and below normal south through Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Monday. Isolated showers Tuesday-Friday. Temperatures above normal north and below normal south Monday, near to above normal Tuesday-Friday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers south through Friday, north Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday. Temperatures above normal through Friday, near normal Saturday-Sunday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Friday. Isolated showers south Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday Temperatures above normal through Sunday.

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