Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Continued areas of heavy rain and severe weather across the South, fantastic planting conditions in the North, and patches of dryness in China and Australia are the weather factors driving the markets Wednesday.

MUCH DRIER FOR MIDWEST

A cutoff low-pressure center system is leaving eastern portions of the Midwest on Wednesday. Another cutoff low-pressure center may bring some showers into far southern stretches of the region for Wednesday and Thursday. Otherwise, the region should be much drier, promoting lots of fieldwork. The southern low may bring back showers into parts of the region next week as it leaves. But overall, conditions should be improving for more planting progress and early growth. If this dry stretch lasts too long though, we may see dryness becoming an issue. The weather pattern is expected to change and become more active later next week, but that does not necessarily mean widespread rainfall. Any areas that get missed could see drought expanding.

SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE FOR SOUTHERN PLAINS

An upper-level low continues to produce waves of showers and thunderstorms from Kansas southward through Thursday. The rain will help lessen the drought in parts of the region like western Kansas, but also made for severe weather and flooding in Oklahoma and Texas. Much of Nebraska will remain drier though, which continues to see drought building. A drier stretch is likely to develop later this week that should last through a good portion of next week as well. A system will develop midweek, but probably produce showers north of the region. There should be better chances next weekend, but that could be a very long stretch of dryness to stress wheat and early corn and soybean development.

DRIER IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS

Chances for showers are limited in the Northern Plains until the middle of next week, making for good planting progress. A changing pattern could bring through some more decent rainfall. Though drought reduction has occurred recently, a drier stretch may start turning the tables if the pattern doesn't get wetter next week.

MORE RAIN FOR THE WET DELTA

Scattered showers and heavy rain moved through the Delta on Tuesday and more periods of showers continue through at least Friday. Flooding developed again and will keep water levels on the Lower Mississippi River awfully high. Some showers may stick around into early next week, but drier conditions are generally forecast for next week to help drain wet soils.

GOOD PLANTING CONDITIONS FOR CANADIAN PRAIRIES

Overall dry conditions for the rest of the week continue to promote good planting conditions in the Canadian Prairies. With overall good soil moisture in most of the region, the season is starting off in good shape. A system will move into the region Sunday and Monday with chances for widespread showers that will continue into much of next week, disrupting planting, but favorable for maintaining soil moisture.

LIMITED SHOWERS FOR BRAZIL

With the wet season over, Brazil relies on fronts coming up from Argentina to supply southern areas with some rainfall, which would be favorable for winter wheat planting and establishment. Corn will largely draw upon built up soil moisture from the wet season to fill kernels. Some showers will be possible across the far southern state of Rio Grande do Sul the next couple of days. But the best chance will be a front bringing heavy rainfall to southern areas Friday, then waning as it moves north this weekend.

SHOWERS RETURNING TO ARGENTINA

Several fronts are moving through Argentina this week with scattered showers. That may disrupt fieldwork a bit, but would improve soil moisture for wheat, which should start getting planted here shortly.

RAIN MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN EUROPE

Showers continue across southern Europe, especially the southeast, for the rest of the week. A small system will spread showers north into France and the UK this weekend, which will be helpful for winter wheat. Some areas across the northeast could use a drink of water, but fieldwork should be advancing rather quickly as well. A few showers will move through Poland this weekend, but more is needed.

WIDESPREAD RAIN FOR BLACK SEA REGION

Several disturbances continue to move along a stalled front into next week, producing widespread and much-needed rainfall for drier areas in the southern and eastern Black Sea region. It is much colder in the northwest behind that front, but not enough to produce damaging frosts for too many areas. The colder air will be spreading southward this weekend, slowing crop growth.

LITTLE RAINFALL FOR AUSTRALIA

Very little precipitation is forecast for Australia for the next two weeks, which could start to be an issue for winter wheat and canola establishment. Drought in some areas of South Australia are expanding eastward and could develop elsewhere as well.

LIMITED RAINFALL OPPORTUNITIES IN CHINA

Several systems are forecast to move through China through next week and models have been increasing the rainfall potential for the North China Plain for Thursday and Friday. But the potential for showers after that is spotty and mostly light. That could start to hurt heading to filling wheat and emergent corn and soybeans.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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