DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There is a cutoff low in the eastern Midwest with another in the Southwest. A ridge has formed over the top of them in the North-Central U.S. The Midwest trough will move out Wednesday, but the Southwest trough will very slowly move eastward underneath the ridge, likely getting stuck in the Southeast through a good portion of next week as well.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

Another trough will move into the West next week and battle the ridge across the middle of the continent.

The U.S. and European models are relatively similar. I will use a blend but favor the GFS.

Showers are likely to continue this weekend and at least portions of next week in the Southeast with the upper-level trough hanging around. Another system is likely to move into the Plains in the middle of next week with scattered showers.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH MON...103 AT RIO GRANDE VILLAGE, TX

LOW MON...18 AT MORAN, WY

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT MONDAY...AUSTIN, TX 1.91 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6- TO 10-DAY PERIOD:

There is a cutoff low in the eastern Midwest with another in the Southwest. A ridge has formed over the top of them in the North-Central U.S. The Midwest trough will move out Wednesday, but the Southwest trough will very slowly move eastward underneath the ridge, likely getting stuck in the Southeast through a good portion of next week as well. Another trough will move into the West next week and battle the ridge across the middle of the continent.

The U.S. and European models are relatively similar. I will use a blend but favor the GFS.

Showers are likely to continue this weekend and at least portions of next week in the Southeast with the upper-level trough hanging around. Another system is likely to move into the Plains in the middle of next week with scattered showers.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A front is moving through with scattered showers on Tuesday. Chances for showers are limited afterward until maybe the middle of next week. Though drought reduction has occurred recently, a drier stretch may start turning the tables if the pattern doesn't get wetter next week.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): An upper-level low moved into the region Sunday night and continues to produce waves of showers and thunderstorms from Kansas southward through Thursday. The rain will help lessen the drought in parts of the region, but could make for more severe weather and flooding for Oklahoma and Texas. Much of Nebraska will remain drier though, which continues to see drought building.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A cutoff low-pressure center system continues over eastern portions of the region with showers Tuesday, leaving early on Wednesday. Another cutoff low-pressure center may bring some showers into far southern stretches of the region for Wednesday and Thursday.

Otherwise, the region should be much drier, promoting lots of fieldwork. The chances for precipitation later this week and beyond are more limited, but will still be possible. But overall, conditions should be improving for more planting progress and early growth. If this dry stretch lasts too long, then we may see dryness becoming an issue.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (CORN/SOYBEANS/COTTON/TRANSPORTATION): Scattered showers and heavy rain fell over the weekend across the south and another upper-level low will bring through periods of showers through at least Friday, which may include more areas of heavy rain. Flooding may pop back up across the region and keep water levels on the Lower Mississippi River awfully high again this week. Drier conditions are forecast for next week to help drain wet soils.

BRAZIL (CORN/WINTER WHEAT): With the wet season over, Brazil relies on fronts coming up from Argentina to supply southern areas with some rainfall, which would be favorable for winter wheat planting and establishment. Corn will largely draw upon built up soil moisture from the wet season to fill kernels.

Some showers will be possible across the far southern state of Rio Grande do Sul this week with a couple of Argentine fronts. But the best chance will be a front sweeping northward Friday through the weekend to get some showers into the country.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Overall, it was drier over the weekend.

That was favorable for additional corn and soybean harvest, as well as winter wheat planting. Several fronts are forecast to move through this week with scattered showers. That may disrupt harvest a bit, but would improve soil moisture for wheat, which should start getting planted here shortly.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): A system in the west and a front in the east combined to produce widespread showers across much of the continent this past weekend. Showers will continue across the south, especially the southeast, throughout much of the week as well. Some areas across the north could use a drink of water, but fieldwork should be advancing rather quickly as well.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): A front moved into the region over the weekend and brought showers to the northwest. Several disturbances are forecast to move along the front this week and probably next week as well, producing widespread and much-needed rainfall for drier areas in the south and east. It is much colder in the northwest behind that front, but not enough to produce damaging frosts for too many areas. Northwestern Russia and Belarus stand the best chances for that, but wheat is much further behind developmentally there.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): It was largely dry over the weekend, though some coastal areas in the east saw showers. Very little precipitation is forecast for the next two weeks, which could start to be an issue for winter wheat and canola establishment.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/CORN/SOYBEANS): Some patchy areas of rain developed over the weekend, but mostly for areas that are not concerned much about soil moisture. Areas on the North China Plain have been much drier and are in need of some rainfall. Several systems are forecast to move through the region through next week, but the potential for showers is spotty and mostly light.

That could start to hurt heading to filling wheat and emergent corn and soybeans.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal north and below normal south.

East: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast:

West: Mostly dry Tuesday. Isolated showers south Wednesday-Thursday. Spotty showers Friday-Saturday. Temperatures above normal north and below normal south Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday, above normal north and below normal south Friday-Saturday.

East: Isolated to scattered showers through Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Saturday. Temperatures near normal Tuesday-Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday-Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Sunday-Tuesday. Isolated showers Wednesday-Thursday. Temperatures near to above normal Sunday, above normal Monday-Thursday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers south. Temperatures near to above normal north and below normal south.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Friday. Mostly dry Saturday.

Temperatures near to above normal north and below normal south through Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Sunday-Tuesday. Isolated showers Wednesday-Thursday. Temperatures above normal north and below normal south Sunday-Monday, near to above normal Tuesday-Thursday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers south through Friday, north Saturday.

Temperatures above normal through Saturday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Friday. Isolated showers south Saturday.

Temperatures above normal through Saturday.

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