Canadian Prairies Weather Outlook

Some folks have already gotten started, but May is the primary seeding period for those in the Canadian Prairies. Usually, coming off of winter brings some problems for the region. Either too much snow, not enough, too wet, or too cold can be a nuisance for those looking to start seeding on their farms. However, this season is starting off mostly on a good note.

Northern edges of the Prairies had lingering snow in April, but had overall drier and warmer conditions during the month, allowing the snow to melt and soak into the soils without making conditions too wet. Farther south, a more active weather pattern in April brought some needed rainfall, and a touch of snow in spots, to keep soil moisture in good shape. According to maps from Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, there are portions of eastern Alberta and western Saskatchewan that have above-normal soil moisture, which may include some pits of wetter conditions. But overall, the moisture is a good boost for early growth once the seed is in the ground.

Farther east, across eastern Saskatchewan and western Manitoba, it is a little on the dry side but nothing that screams significant drought. Drought analyzed by the North American Drought Monitor at the end of March showed very little drought scattered through the region after a pretty good winter. And rainfall during April was enough to keep conditions from getting worse in most spots.

You can find more information from both sources here: https://www.agr.gc.ca/… and here: https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/….

As long as the forecast does not get particularly hot and dry or cold and wet, conditions should continue to be overall favorable for seeding in May. Well, so far, so good. During the next seven days, a front will move through this weekend into early next week, May 4-6, with scattered showers. Forecast amounts are expected to be light and spotty, but some potential for thunderstorms could increase amounts over 10 millimeters (0.4 inches). A stripe from southwest to northeast portions of Saskatchewan is favored and could benefit some of the drier areas in the east.

Another front likely moves through late next week, but models are not producing much precipitation with that one. The precipitation outlook for the rest of May sees fronts regularly pushing through, which promotes relatively frequent precipitation chances, but nothing that would soak the region with too much water. Though these fronts may bring a couple of days of wind and cooler weather, the overall trend should be for above-normal temperatures this month. That reduces the risk of heavy snowfall and frosts, though does not eliminate them.

If conditions can continue through the summer, producers here may have a banner year. Unfortunately, that is not DTN's forecast. A hotter and drier summer may turn what looked like a good spring crop into a dismal summer one. Timely rains can certainly help in that drier pattern though. And much of the region should have a well-stocked soil column's-worth of water to draw from.

To find more international weather conditions and your local forecast from DTN, head over to https://www.dtnpf.com/…

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

(c) Copyright 2025 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.