Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Continued areas of heavy rain and severe weather across the south and patches of dryness in Europe, the Blacks Sea, China, and Australia are the weather factors driving the markets Friday.

RAIN LINGERING FOR EASTERN MIDWEST

Multiple features have combined to create widespread showers across the Midwest this week, causing some severe weather and overly wet soils that may limit planting in some areas. An upper-level low will get cut off in the region and stick around through the middle of next week, producing areas of showers for those east of the Mississippi River. Another upper-level low will move across southern areas with showers next week and could bring some showers up into the region as well. That is not likely to have much of an impact, however, and overall drier conditions should favor planting and other fieldwork, especially for those in the northwest.

MORE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN FOR SOUTHERN PLAINS

Heavy rain has been falling across the Southern Plains this week due to multiple features, which has improved drought where it existed, but also caused areas of flooding and severe weather. More rain and severe weather continue across the south on Friday. A slow-moving system will move into the Plains with showers starting on Monday and continue periods of showers for most of next week. That should improve the drought situation in some areas, but cause more flooding. Most of Kansas and Nebraska will welcome any rain that falls, though Nebraska may not see all that much despite the several days of chances.

DROUGHT REDUCTION IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS

Widespread showers and heavy rain fell across a good portion of the Northern Plains earlier this week. Additional light and spotty showers have followed the heavy rain this week. Another system will move into the region on Sunday, likely bringing more scattered showers into Tuesday. Drought has been reduced from the recent rainfall and soil moisture has improved as planters start rolling through the region.

MORE RAIN FOR THE WET DELTA

The Mississippi River is still flooded south of Memphis, causing some travel restrictions. A front remains stalled in the Delta with periods of showers through Saturday, causing some heavy rain to exacerbate the wet conditions in the region. A slow-moving low-pressure system will move into the region in the middle of next week with more unnecessary rainfall that could be heavy at times.

WET SEASON OVER IN BRAZIL

A front continues with showers over northern Brazil into the weekend, but the country is drying out. This should be considered the end of the wet season, generally on time this year. The barrage of fronts over the last few weeks has kept soil moisture favorable for pollinating to filling corn but also for winter wheat planting that will start up in over the next couple of weeks. Additional fronts may move into southern areas next week to continue building moisture for wheat.

SHOWERS RETURN TO ARGENTINA NEXT WEEK

Overall drier conditions have been favorable for corn and soybean harvest in Argentina lately. Some showers will develop over northern areas on Friday, but conditions continue to be favorable for fieldwork. Some areas are getting a bit too dry for winter wheat planting that will start up in over the next couple of weeks, but fronts moving through next week should provide some better moisture.

MORE RAIN COMING FOR EUROPE

Much of this week has been dry in Europe, but western areas are seeing a system slowly move in and a front will sag south over eastern areas on Friday, combining for widespread precipitation for the weekend. Eastern areas should see rainfall continuing next week as well, which may help to moisten up some drier areas in the northeast. Another upper-level low may continue showers across the southwest next week as well.

LIMITED SHOWERS FOR BLACK SEA REGION

Temperatures continue to waffle a bit, but drier conditions this week have not been favorable for winter wheat in the Black Sea region. A front will move into the region this weekend into early next week and several pulses of storm systems will move along it, bringing some showers, but could be streaky. Southwestern Russia is least likely to see good rainfall from the pattern. Soil moisture continues to be very limited across much of the region and more moisture is needed soon for developing wheat and emerging corn.

LITTLE RAINFALL FOR AUSTRALIA

Many areas around Australia are still dry and in need of some rain, though portions of the west and New South Wales have gotten some rain recently. Showers continue to be limited for the first half of May, an overall unfavorable pattern for winter crop establishment.

LIMITED RAINFALL OPPORTUNITIES IN CHINA

Primary wheat and canola areas in central China have been drier this spring, unfavorable as those crops quickly develop in warmer temperatures. Very little precipitation is forecast either there or farther north in the corn and soybean areas, which is not good for crops in the ground, but better for spring planting. The longer-range forecast continues to call for limited showers through the first half of May for the North China Plain and Northeast, even with periodic showers.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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