Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Continued areas of heavy rain and severe weather across the Central U.S., a change to a wetter forecast in the eastern Midwest, and patches of dryness in Europe, the Blacks Sea, China, and Australia are the weather factors driving the markets Thursday.

RAIN LINGERING FOR EASTERN MIDWEST

A system brought heavy rain and severe weather to the Midwest earlier this week and a system is riding up through the region with more rain for Thursday. Yet another front and system will move through on Friday, but the latest forecasts have this system becoming cutoff and meandering through eastern areas into next week. Showers should be limited after Sunday, but could continue for some areas, holding up planting intentions a bit and turning a dry forecast into a wet one. Western areas may see showers later next week with another low meandering through.

MORE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN FOR SOUTHERN PLAINS

Heavy rain has been falling across the Southern Plains this week due to a stalled front, which has improved drought where it existed, but also caused areas of flooding and severe weather. Another front brings more showers Thursday and Friday with scattered showers and more threats for heavy rain and severe weather across the south. A slow-moving system will move into the Plains with showers starting on Sunday and continue periods of showers for most of next week. That should improve the drought situation in some areas, but cause more flooding. Most of Kansas and Nebraska will welcome any rain that falls, though Nebraska may not see all that much despite the several days of chances.

WIDESPREAD DROUGHT REDUCTION IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS

Widespread showers and heavy rain fell across a good portion of the Northern Plains earlier this week. Additional light and spotty showers continue into Friday. Another system will move into the region on Sunday, likely bringing more scattered showers into Tuesday. The current and forecast rainfall are improving drought, but could also cause wet conditions and some delays to planting.

MORE RAIN FOR THE WET DELTA

The Mississippi River is still flooded south of Memphis, causing some travel restrictions. A front remains stalled in the Delta with periods of showers through Saturday, causing some heavy rain to exacerbate the wet conditions in the region. A slow-moving low-pressure system will move into the region in the middle of next week with more unnecessary rainfall.

WET SEASON OVER IN BRAZIL

A front continues with showers over northern Brazil into the weekend, but the country is drying out. This should be considered the end of the wet season, generally on time this year. The barrage of fronts over the last few weeks has kept soil moisture favorable for pollinating to filling corn but also for winter wheat planting that will start up in May. Additional fronts may move into southern areas next week to continue building moisture for wheat.

SHOWERS RETURN TO ARGENTINA NEXT WEEK

Overall drier conditions have been favorable for corn and soybean harvest lately in Argentina. Very little rainfall is forecast this week, with some showers over northern areas on Friday, which should continue to be favorable for fieldwork. Some areas are getting a bit too dry for winter wheat planting that will start up in May, but fronts moving through next week could provide some better moisture.

MORE RAIN COMING FOR EUROPE

Much of this week has been dry in Europe, but western areas will see a system slowly move in and a front will sag south over eastern areas on Friday, combining for widespread precipitation for the weekend. Eastern areas may see rainfall continuing next week as well, which could help to moisten up some drier areas in the northeast.

LIMITED SHOWERS FOR BLACK SEA REGION

Temperatures continue to waffle a bit in the Black Sea region, but drier conditions this week have not been favorable. A front will move through this weekend into early next week that may bring showers, but models have been backing off on that potential recently, especially for southwestern Russia. Soil moisture continues to be very limited across much of the region and more moisture is needed soon for developing wheat and emerging corn.

LITTLE RAINFALL FOR AUSTRALIA

Many areas around Australia are still dry and in need of some rain, though portions of the west and New South Wales have gotten some rain recently. Showers continue to be limited for the first half of May, an overall unfavorable pattern for winter crop establishment.

FEW RAINFALL OPPORTUNITIES IN CHINA

Primary wheat and canola areas in central China have been drier this spring, unfavorable as those crops quickly develop in warmer temperatures. Very little precipitation is forecast either there or farther north in the corn and soybean areas, which is not good for crops in the ground, but better for spring planting. The longer-range forecast continues to call for limited showers through the first half of May for the North China Plain and Northeast, even with periodic showers.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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