DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the East with a trough in Canada and another in the Central. There is another ridge on the West Coast with a trough out in the Pacific. The western ridge will move east into the Central over the weekend and largely get stuck there through next week. The Central trough will get cutoff from the jet stream and meander through the East this weekend and next week.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

The Pacific trough will do something similar, which will move into the Southwest this weekend and get cutoff, slowly moving east next week and weekend.

The U.S. and European models are relatively similar. I will use a blend but favor the European.

A system will move into the Plains on Sunday or Monday and very slowly move eastward through the southern U.S. next week with periods of showers. Showers may hang on over the eastern Midwest into next week, but more especially along the East Coast. Above-normal temperatures will be favored across the North with more seasonable or even slightly cool temperatures across the South.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH WED...100 DEGREES AT EAGLE PASS, TX

LOW WED...20 DEGREES AT GUNNISON, CO

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT WEDNESDAY...WICHITA FALLS, TX 3.32 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6- TO 10-DAY PERIOD:

There is a ridge in the East with a trough in Canada and another in the Central. There is another ridge on the West Coast with a trough out in the Pacific. The western ridge will move east into the Central over the weekend and largely get stuck there through next week. The Central trough will get cutoff from the jet stream and meander through the East this weekend and next week. A similar situation will occur with the Pacific trough, which will move into the Southwest this weekend and get cutoff, slowly moving east next week and weekend.

The U.S. and European models are relatively similar. I will use a blend but favor the European.

A system will move into the Plains on Sunday and very slowly move eastward through the southern U.S. next week with periods of showers. Showers may hang on over the eastern Midwest into next week, but more especially along the East Coast through much of next week as well. Above-normal temperatures will be favored across the North with more seasonable or even slightly cool temperatures across the South.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Widespread showers and heavy rain fell across a good portion of the region earlier this week. Additional light and spotty showers continue into Friday. Another system will move into the region on Sunday, likely bringing more scattered showers into Tuesday. The current and forecast rainfall should improve drought, but also cause wet conditions and some delays to planting.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Heavy rain has been falling across the south this week due to a stalled front, which has improved drought where it existed, but also caused areas of flooding and severe weather. Another front brings more showers Thursday and Friday with scattered showers with more threats for heavy rain and severe weather across the south. A slow-moving system will move into the Plains with showers starting on Sunday and continue periods of showers for most of next week. That should improve the drought situation in some areas, but cause more flooding. Most of Kansas and Nebraska will welcome any rain that falls, though Nebraska may not see all that much despite the several days of chances.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A system brought heavy rain and severe weather earlier this week and a system is riding up through the region with more rain for Thursday. Yet another front and system will move through on Friday, but the latest forecasts have this system becoming cutoff and meandering through eastern areas into next week. Showers should be limited after Sunday, but could continue for some areas, holding up planting intentions a bit and turning a dry forecast into a wet one. Western areas may see showers later next week with another low meandering through.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (CORN/SOYBEANS/COTTON/TRANSPORTATION): The Mississippi River is still flooded south of Memphis, causing some travel restrictions. A front remains stalled in the region with periods of showers through Saturday, causing some heavy rain to exacerbate the wet conditions in the region. A slow-moving low-pressure system will move into the region in the middle of next week with more unnecessary rainfall.

BRAZIL (CORN/WINTER WHEAT): A front continues showers over northern areas into the weekend, but the country is drying out. This should be considered the end of the wet season, generally on time this year. The barrage of fronts over the last few weeks has kept soil moisture favorable for pollinating to filling corn but also for winter wheat planting that will start up in May. Additional fronts may move into southern areas next week to continue building moisture for wheat.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Overall drier conditions have been favorable for corn and soybean harvest lately. Very little rainfall is forecast this week, with some showers over northern areas on Friday, which should continue to be favorable for fieldwork. Some areas are getting a bit too dry for winter wheat planting that will start up in May, but fronts moving through next week could provide some better moisture.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Much of this week has been dry, but western areas will see a system slowly move in and a front will sag south over eastern areas on Friday, combining for widespread precipitation for the weekend. Eastern areas may see rainfall continuing next week as well, which could help to moisten up some drier areas in the northeast.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Temperatures continue to waffle a bit, but drier conditions this week have not been favorable. A front will move through this weekend into early next week that may bring showers, but models have been backing off on that potential recently, especially for southwestern Russia.

Soil moisture continues to be very limited across much of the region and more moisture is needed soon for developing wheat and emerging corn.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Many areas around the country are still dry and in need of some rain, though portions of the west and New South Wales have gotten some rain recently. Showers continue to be limited for the first half of May, an overall unfavorable pattern for winter crop establishment.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/CORN/SOYBEANS): Primary wheat and canola areas in central China have been drier this spring, unfavorable as those crops quickly develop in warmer temperatures. Very little precipitation is forecast either there or farther north in the corn and soybean areas, which is not good for crops in the ground, but better for spring planting. The longer range forecast continues to call for limited showers through the first half of May for the North China Plain and Northeast, even with periodic showers.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers. Temperatures near normal.

East: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated to scattered showers through Friday, south Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday-Monday. Temperatures near to above normal Thursday, near to below normal Friday-Monday.

East: Isolated to scattered showers through Monday. Temperatures near to above normal through Friday, near to below normal Saturday-Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated showers Tuesday-Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday-Saturday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers and heavy rain south. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Friday. Mostly dry Saturday.

Isolated showers Sunday. Scattered showers Monday. Temperatures near to below normal through Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Saturday.

Temperatures near to below normal Tuesday-Saturday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Monday. Temperatures near to below normal Thursday, near normal Friday, near to above normal Saturday-Sunday, above normal Monday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Isolated showers north. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers north through Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday-Monday.

Temperatures near to above normal through Saturday, above normal Sunday-Monday.

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