Ag Weather Forum

It has been a much more active weather pattern for the Plains than forecasts were projecting a few months ago. Some areas of Texas and Oklahoma have had substantial rainfall events, including the one that is occurring April 30. The Northern Plains, and especially South Dakota, just saw a major rainfall event that has likely reduced deficits there as well.

However, around the edges and through the middle of the Plains, rains have been missing, or less frequent and light, and drought has been sneakily increasing across western Kansas and been maintained across most of Nebraska. As DTN Ag Meteorologist Emeritus Bryce Anderson describes here, https://www.dtnpf.com/…, they are the only spots in the Corn Belt dealing with drought early this season. So, they still need some more rainfall.

Showers will continue across portions of the Plains through May 2, before the weather pattern changes. But it should mean additional heavy rainfall for the southern half of the region. An upper-level ridge of high pressure will act as a block to the weather pattern after settling into the Central United States and southern Canada next week, around and after May 4.

However, that ridge will be just far enough to the north to allow systems to move underneath it. An upper-level trough of low pressure will move into the Southwest U.S. this weekend, becoming cut off from the jet stream. When that occurs, these lows have a tendency to wander slowly. They can also have a mind of their own and forecasts can vary. Meteorologists use ensemble forecasts, or averages of models, to paint a better picture of what will happen when there is a lot of uncertainty.

Ensembles may dilute the extremes, but they have a tendency to pick out the areas most likely to see a rainfall event. In this case, we're talking about rain -- and multiple days of it. The low is forecast to slowly meander eastward across the southern U.S. next week. Models vary on the intensity and timing, thus the use of ensembles. But generally, we should see the low move into the Southeast U.S. by next weekend, May 10-11. That gives the Southern Plains multiple days of consistent rainfall that could start May 4 or May 5, and last through May 10. That is a full five to six days of rainfall on top of the amounts that have just occurred this week. We have already seen flooding across Oklahoma and north Texas with the heavy rainfall this week. This could add substantially more.

How much rainfall is tough to say; it will be determined by thunderstorm development and the speed of that upper low. But a trustworthy ensemble, the European ECMWF model, showcases potential for 2 to 4 inches from western Kansas to central Texas, easing drought in some areas, and flooding others. Thunderstorms will undoubtedly mean some areas receive more than that and others much less, but the potential is there.

But with the ridge to the north, the amounts quickly fall, getting into drier Nebraska, which could still end up with more than an inch of rain in some areas, but less likely to have that be widespread and heavy enough to reduce the ongoing drought. And while northern areas like the Dakotas and Montana saw needed rain earlier this week, they are not expected to receive very much rainfall out of this system.

To find more weather conditions and your local forecast from DTN, head over to https://www.dtnpf.com/…

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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