DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the East with a trough in Canada and another in the Southwest. There is another ridge off the West Coast. The Canadian trough will send a couple of pieces of energy eastward across the border region this week while the Southwestern trough moves eastward later this week. The far western ridge will move into the West late this week and sort of settle across middle of the continent this weekend into next week.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

Another trough will follow the ridge into the West this weekend, but probably cut underneath the ridge across the South next week, albeit very slowly.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar with the overall pattern, though they disagree about some of the details with each system moving through, especially with how to treat next week's low. I will use a blend but favor the European.

A system will move into the Plains over the weekend and very slowly move eastward through the U.S. next week with some degree of showers. Above-normal temperatures will be favored across the North-Central with more seasonable temperatures elsewhere.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH MON...108 AT RIO GRANDE VILLAGE, TX

LOW MON...8 AT PETER SINKS, UT

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT MONDAY...RAPID CITY, SD 2.12 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6- TO 10-DAY PERIOD:

There is a ridge in the East with a trough in Canada and another in the Southwest. There is another ridge off the West Coast. The Canadian trough will send a couple of pieces of energy eastward across the border region this week while the Southwestern trough moves eastward later this week. The far western ridge will move into the West late this week and sort of settle across middle of the continent this weekend into next week. Another trough will follow it into the West, but probably cut underneath the ridge across the South next week, albeit very slowly.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar with the overall pattern, though they disagree about some of the details with each system moving through, especially with how to treat next week's low. I will use a blend but favor the European.

A system will move into the Plains over the weekend and very slowly move eastward through the U.S. next week with some degree of showers. Above-normal temperatures will be favored across the North-Central with more seasonable temperatures elsewhere.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Widespread showers and heavy rain fell across a good portion of the region over the last couple of days.

Additional light and spotty showers are forecast for the next couple of days.

Another system will move into the region this weekend, likely bringing more scattered showers into next week. The current and forecast rainfall should improve drought, but also cause wet conditions and some delays to planting.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A front is stalled across the south, where showers and thunderstorms will continue into Thursday and some additional showers may be possible on Friday with another front sweeping it out. More rainfall is forecast with another system moving into the region over the weekend with a system that will be slowly moving eastward next week. The rainfall is helping to ease drought conditions and build soil moisture, but may be causing some flooding and delays to planting.

Producers likely welcome the rain, even if it causes some delays.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A system brought heavy rain and some severe weather to the west on Monday. The front to the system will continue showers through parts of the region through Friday, especially across the wetter south. Some additional showers will be possible next week as an upper-level trough slowly moves eastward through the region. Western areas are likely to be wetter than eastern areas, which may get a chance to dry out and get some fieldwork in.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (CORN/SOYBEANS/COTTON/TRANSPORTATION): The Mississippi River is still flooded south of Memphis, causing some travel restrictions. A front will move into the region on Tuesday and linger with periods of showers through Friday, causing some heavy rain to exacerbate the wet conditions in the region.

BRAZIL (CORN/WINTER WHEAT): A front brought scattered showers over the weekend, maintaining soil moisture for corn that is going from pollination into grain fill. The front will move north and out of the primary growing areas by Wednesday, but continue rainfall for northern areas into the weekend. This should be considered the end of the wet season, generally on time this year.

The barrage of fronts over the last few weeks has kept soil moisture favorable for corn but also for winter wheat planting that will start up in May.

Additional fronts may move into southern areas next week to continue building moisture for wheat.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Limited showers went through some southern areas over the weekend, but should not have disrupted the continued corn and soybean harvest. Very little rainfall is forecast this week, with some showers over northern areas on Friday, which should continue to be favorable for fieldwork. Some areas are getting a bit too dry for winter wheat planting that will start up in May but fronts moving through next week could provide some better moisture.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Much of the week is dry, but western areas will see a system slowly move in and a front will sag south over eastern areas late this week. Eastern areas may see rainfall continuing next week as well, which could help to moisten up some drier areas in the northeast.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): A front moved through over the weekend with some limited showers and colder temperatures. Temperatures will waffle a bit this week, but drier conditions are not going to be very favorable. A front will move through this weekend into early next week that may bring more widespread showers. Soil moisture continues to be very limited across much of the region and more moisture is needed soon for developing wheat and emerging corn.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Scattered showers moved through New South Wales over the weekend, which was needed for some drier spots where winter wheat and canola are being planted. But many areas around the country are still dry and in need of some rain. Showers will be limited across the country this week, favoring western and eastern coastal areas later this week and weekend.

More inland areas will need the rain, but early May appears to be pretty dry.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers. Temperatures above normal.

East: Scattered showers northwest. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated to scattered showers through Friday. Mostly dry Saturday.

Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday-Thursday, near to below normal Friday-Saturday.

East: Isolated to scattered showers through Friday. Mostly dry Saturday.

Temperatures above normal Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday-Friday, near to below normal Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Sunday. Isolated to scattered showers Monday-Thursday, especially west. Temperatures near to above normal Sunday, above normal Monday-Thursday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Saturday. Temperatures falling Tuesday, near to below normal Wednesday-Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Sunday-Thursday.

Temperatures near to below normal south and above normal north Sunday-Thursday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Thursday. Isolated showers Friday. Temperatures near to below normal through Thursday, near normal Friday, near to above normal Saturday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers north through Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal through Saturday.

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