DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge east of the Rockies with a trough in Canada and another in the West. There is another ridge off the West Coast. The Canadian trough will send a couple of pieces of energy eastward across the border region this week while the western trough sinks into the Southwest. This trough will push eastward through the U.S. later this week. The far western ridge will move into the West late this week and sort of settle across middle of the continent this weekend into next week.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

Another trough will follow the ridge into the West this weekend, but probably cut underneath the ridge across the South next week, albeit very slowly.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar with the overall pattern, though they disagree about some of the details with each system moving through.

I will use a blend but favor the European.

A new system will move into the Plains over the weekend and very slowly move eastward through the U.S. next week. Above-normal temperatures will be favored across the North-Central with more seasonable temperatures elsewhere going into next week, depending on how quickly the system pushes through the country next week.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH SUN...98 AT EAGLE PASS, TX

LOW SUN...25 AT MANISTIQUE, MI

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT SUNDAY...FORT SMITH, AR 1.12 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6- TO 10-DAY PERIOD:

There is a ridge east of the Rockies with a trough in Canada and another in the West. There is another ridge off the West Coast. The Canadian trough will send a couple of pieces of energy eastward across the border region this week while the western trough sinks into the Southwest. This trough will push eastward through the U.S. later this week. The far western ridge will move into the West late this week and sort of settle across middle of the continent this weekend into next week. Another trough will follow it into the West, but probably cut underneath the ridge across the South next week, albeit very slowly.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar with the overall pattern, though they disagree about some of the details with each system moving through.

I will use a blend but favor the European.

A new system will move into the Plains over the weekend and very slowly move eastward through the U.S. next week. Above-normal temperatures will be favored across the North-Central with more seasonable temperatures elsewhere going into next week, depending on how quickly the system pushes through the country next week.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Some isolated showers moved into the region over the weekend, but were more explosive later Sunday. That continues Monday, creating some areas of heavy rain and possible severe weather. Another system will move into the region this weekend, likely bringing more scattered showers into next week. The current and forecast rainfall could improve drought in some areas, but also cause wet conditions and delays to planting.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers moved through over the weekend and continue on Monday with a system moving through. The system will cause a front to get stalled across the south, where showers and thunderstorms will continue into Thursday and some additional showers may be possible across southern areas on Friday. More rainfall is forecast with another system moving into the region over the weekend. The rainfall is helping to ease drought conditions and build soil moisture, but may be causing some delays to planting. Producers likely welcome the rain, even if it causes some delays.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Some showers moved through over the weekend, but many areas stayed dry, allowing some to dry out enough to get some fieldwork in. A significant storm system will move through Monday and Tuesday, with widespread showers and severe weather. The front will continue showers through parts of the region through Friday, especially across the wetter south. Some additional showers will be possible next week as an upper-level trough slowly moves eastward through the region. Western areas are likely to be wetter than eastern areas, which may get a chance to dry out and get some fieldwork in.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (CORN/SOYBEANS/COTTON/TRANSPORTATION): Scattered showers went through over the weekend, and many areas remain pretty wet, causing difficult fieldwork conditions. The Mississippi River is still flooded south of Memphis, causing some travel restrictions. A front will move into the region on Tuesday and linger for much of the week, causing periods of showers and thunderstorms that may turn out to be severe and create some heavy rain to exacerbate the wet conditions.

BRAZIL (CORN/WINTER WHEAT): Scattered showers moved through over the weekend, maintaining soil moisture for corn that is going from pollination into grain fill. The front will move north and out of the primary growing areas by midweek, but continue rainfall for northern areas into the weekend. Another front may move through late in the week with some additional showers. The barrage of fronts over the last few weeks has kept soil moisture favorable for corn but also for winter wheat planting that will start up in May.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Limited showers went through some southern areas over the weekend, but should not have disrupted the continued corn and soybean harvest. Very little rainfall is forecast this week, which should continue to be favorable for fieldwork. Some areas are getting a bit too dry for winter wheat planting that will start up in May.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Scattered showers went through over the weekend, but missed the northeast again, which has become much drier. The front half of the week will be dry, but western areas will see a system slowly move in and a front will sag south over eastern areas late this week. Eastern areas are favored to see rainfall continuing next week as well, which could help to moisten up some drier areas.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): A front moved through over the weekend with some limited showers and colder temperatures. Temperatures will waffle a bit this week, but drier conditions are not going to be very favorable. A front will move through this weekend into early next week that may bring more widespread showers. Soil moisture continues to be very limited across much of the region and more moisture is needed soon for developing wheat and emerging corn.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Scattered showers moved through New South Wales over the weekend, which was needed for some drier spots where winter wheat and canola are being planted. But many areas around the country are still dry and in need of some rain. Showers will be limited across the country this week, favoring western and eastern coastal areas later this week and weekend.

More inland areas will need the rain, however.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

East: Scattered showers. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated to scattered showers through Friday. Temperatures above normal Monday, near to above normal Tuesday-Thursday, near to below normal Friday.

East: Isolated to scattered showers through Friday. Temperatures above normal Monday-Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday-Friday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Saturday. Isolated to scattered showers Sunday-Wednesday, especially west. Temperatures near to above normal west and near to below normal east Saturday, above normal Sunday-Wednesday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Friday. Temperatures above normal Monday, falling Tuesday, near normal Wednesday-Friday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Wednesday.

Temperatures near to above normal Saturday-Wednesday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Thursday. Isolated showers Friday. Temperatures near to below normal through Thursday, near normal Friday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers Monday, north Tuesday-Friday.

Temperatures near to above normal through Friday.

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