DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There is a general ridge across much of the U.S. with disturbances embedded within it. There is a bigger trough off the West Coast and more up by Alaska.

The pattern continues to be rather progressive going into early May with troughs and ridges easily moving through North America.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

A ridge will move into the West late next week and will be hard to remove from the Central U.S. the following week. Disturbances should still flow around the ridge, keeping the pattern somewhat active.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar with the overall pattern, though they disagree about some of the details with each system moving through.

I will use a blend but favor the European.

A system will form along a stalled boundary across the Southern Plains and head into the Midwest for mid-late next week with scattered showers. Some showers may continue in the Plains through the weekend. Temperatures may briefly fall behind the system, but should rise across the Plains for later next week and weekend, particularly across the north.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH THU...92 ACROSS MULTIPLE PLACES IN CALIFORNIA, ARIZONA, TEXAS, AND FLORIDA

LOW THU...9 AT VERDI, CA

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT THURSDAY...OMAHA, NE 2.20 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

There is a general ridge across much of the U.S. with disturbances embedded within it. There is a bigger trough off the West Coast and more up by Alaska.

The pattern continues to be rather progressive going into early May with troughs and ridges easily moving through North America. A ridge will move into the West late next week and will be hard to remove from the Central U.S. the following week. Disturbances should still flow around the ridge, keeping the pattern somewhat active.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar with the overall pattern, though they disagree about some of the details with each system moving through.

I will use a blend but favor the European.

A system will form along a stalled boundary across the Southern Plains and head into the Midwest for mid-late next week with scattered showers. Some showers may continue in the Plains through the weekend. Temperatures may briefly fall behind the system, but should rise across the Plains for later next week and weekend, particularly across the north.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A system brought showers to the south Thursday, which were moderate in some spots. More widespread showers should return over the weekend with another system moving through into Monday.

Rainfall amounts will maintain overall decent topsoil moisture for most of the region and could be heavy enough to reduce some of the drought. Cooler temperatures have been in place most of the week, but should increase over the weekend before falling briefly behind the system early next week. Temperatures will be on the rise afterward in early May. Soil temperatures should be increasing regardless, allowing for some more planting to get done in areas that aren't so chilly or wet.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Showers and thunderstorms have been widespread this week, producing pockets of heavy rain and severe weather, including for western Kansas, which has been very dry lately. Several more days of widespread showers and thunderstorms are forecast into next week that will likely bring more rainfall to needed areas, but also with potential for severe weather and delays to planting.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Recent heavy rainfall in parts of the region have eased drought and increased soil moisture, but also are causing limitations to planting. Multiple systems and fronts will continue to move through the region to close out April and start May in a busy overall pattern that could continue these planting concerns. A system on Monday and Tuesday may produce widespread severe weather. However, the region will also see some dry days between systems and could be enough time to get out and do some work for those that aren't too wet. The pattern should begin to quiet down to some degree after next week.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (CORN/SOYBEANS/COTTON/TRANSPORTATION): A front remains stalled in the region, bringing periods of showers Friday and probably through the weekend as well. Some areas remain too wet for much planting and the rain moving through this week has not been helpful. The Mississippi River remains in flood stage along most of the path through the region, though water levels are falling across the north. The rainfall this week could stall that progress in some areas, especially for those in the south.

BRAZIL (CORN): Scattered showers have been moving through much of central Brazil over the last week, favorable for maintaining soil moisture for safrinha corn in most areas. A front is passing through Friday and Saturday with more widespread showers and another should go through late this weekend into next week, extending the wet season while corn finishes pollination and begins the fill period. After a scare of dry conditions for April, much of the region has received near or above normal rainfall, favorable for the corn.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Drier conditions have favored the continued harvest. A front will bring some showers through Friday and Saturday, but showers again look limited and mostly favorable for fieldwork. The country would prefer for rainfall to come at least somewhat regularly to maintain soil moisture for winter wheat, which will start to be planted in May.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Scattered showers have been moving through Europe fairly regularly over the last two weeks. That has favored winter wheat development, but also produced some delays to planting. However, most areas now have good soil moisture outside of the northeast, which needs more rain and only saw pockets of moderate rain on Thursday. The pattern should be quieter and warmer next week with a system returning showers to western areas later next week. Poland especially could have more concerning weather conditions, at least for the time being.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Conditions have been good for planting, but not for plant growth in the region. Limited showers have been moving through this week, but a front moving through this weekend will usher in some cooler temperatures and more dry conditions for next week. Overall, it's still poor weather conditions for wheat growth, and better for corn planting.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Many areas are still dry and need more rain despite some recent showers. A front brought through some areas of showers to the west on Wednesday, and is moving through with patchy showers to the east to close out the week. But more areas will be missed than hit and will need more rain for wheat and canola planting and establishment. Western areas have been more favorable with periodic rainfall, but that may be slowing down.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers. Temperatures above normal.

East: Isolated showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated to scattered showers Friday. Mostly dry Saturday. Scattered showers Sunday-Tuesday. Temperatures near to above normal through Saturday, above normal Sunday-Tuesday.

East: Isolated to scattered showers Friday. Mostly dry Saturday-Monday.

Scattered showers Tuesday. Temperatures above normal Friday, near normal Saturday-Sunday, above normal Monday-Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday-Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Sunday. Temperatures near normal Wednesday-Saturday, near to above normal Sunday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Tuesday. Temperatures near to above normal through Saturday, above normal Sunday-Monday, near to above normal Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday-Sunday.

Temperatures near to below normal Wednesday-Thursday, near to above normal Friday-Sunday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Scattered showers north. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Friday-Saturday. Scattered showers Sunday. Mostly dry Monday-Tuesday. Temperatures near to above normal through Sunday, near to below normal Monday-Tuesday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Tuesday. Temperatures near to above normal through Tuesday.

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