Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Daily rain chances across the U.S. are causing planting delays but soil moisture improvements especially for wheat, continued showers in Brazil, and patches of dryness in Europe, the Blacks Sea, and Australia are the weather factors driving the markets Thursday.

PERIODS OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH MIDWEST

Recent heavy rainfall in parts of the Midwest have eased drought and increased soil moisture, but also are causing limitations to planting. Multiple systems and fronts will move through the region to close out April and start May in a busy overall pattern that could continue these planting concerns. However, the region will also see some dry days between systems and could be enough time to get out and do some work for those that aren't too wet.

DAILY RAIN IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Showers and thunderstorms were heavy in some areas of the Central and Southern Plains on Wednesday that have been dry. Several more days of widespread showers and thunderstorms are forecast into next week that will likely bring more rainfall to needed areas, but also with potential for severe weather and delays to planting.

SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS

A system will move through the Northern Plains with showers across the south Thursday. More widespread showers should return over the weekend with another system moving through into Monday. Rainfall amounts will maintain overall decent topsoil moisture for most of the region and could be heavy enough this weekend to reduce some of the drought. Cooler temperatures have been in place most of the week, but should increase over the weekend before falling briefly behind the system early next week. Temperatures will be on the rise afterward in early May. Soil temperatures should be increasing regardless, allowing for some more planting to get done in areas that aren't so chilly or wet.

FRONT STALLED IN THE DELTA

A front is stalled in the Delta, bringing periods of showers through at least Friday and probably through the weekend. Some areas remain too wet for much planting and the rain moving through this week will not be helpful. The Mississippi River remains in flood stage along most of the path through the region, though water levels are starting to fall across the north. The rainfall this week could stall that progress in some areas.

WET SEASON EXTENDED IN BRAZIL

Scattered showers have been moving through much of central Brazil over the last week, favorable for maintaining soil moisture for safrinha corn in most areas. A front will pass through Thursday and Friday with more widespread showers, and another should go through late this weekend into next week, extending the wet season while corn finishes pollination and begins the fill period. After a scare of dry conditions for April, much of the region has received near or above normal rainfall, favorable for the corn.

LIMITED RAIN FOR ARGENTINA

Drier conditions have favored the continued harvest in Argentina. A couple of fronts will move through over the next few days, but showers again look limited and mostly favorable for fieldwork. The country would prefer for rainfall to come at least somewhat regularly to maintain soil moisture for winter wheat, which will start to be planted in May.

WET PATTERN FOR EUROPE MISSING POLAND

Scattered showers have been moving through Europe fairly regularly over the last week and continue this week as well. That has favored winter wheat development, but also produced some delays to planting. However, most areas now have good soil moisture outside of the northeast, which needs more rain. Rainfall this week has been largely missing those drier areas in the northeast and the pattern should be quieter and warmer next week with a system returning showers to western areas later next week. Poland especially could have more concerning weather conditions, at least for the time being.

LIMITED SHOWERS FOR BLACK SEA REGION

Conditions have been good for planting, but not for plant growth in the Black Sea region. Limited showers have been moving through this week, but a front moving through this weekend will usher in some cooler temperatures and more dry conditions for next week. Overall, it's still poor weather conditions for wheat growth, and better for corn planting.

LIMITED SHOWERS FOR AUSTRALIA

Many areas in Australia are still dry and need more rain despite some recent showers. A front brought through some areas of showers to the west on Wednesday, moving through with patchy showers to the east to close out the week. But more areas will be missed than hit and will need more rain for wheat and canola planting and establishment. Western areas have been more favorable with periodic rainfall, but that may be slowing down.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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