DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There is a general ridge across much of the U.S. with disturbances along the Canadian border, in the West, and more out in the Pacific. These features and additional troughs and ridges will move through the country rather easily through next week.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

A ridge will likely set up across the North-Central next weekend, though disturbances may move around it through mid-May.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar with the overall pattern, though they disagree about some of the details with each system moving through.

I will use a blend but favor the European.

A system will move east through the Midwest early next week. The southern end of its cold front may get stuck in the Plains, which would likely form another system that moves northeast through the country mid-late next week.

Temperatures are likely to fall behind the early week system, but with generally near or above normal temperatures that should last through next week.

Warmer temperatures should build in the Plains next weekend underneath the expanding ridge.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH WED...97 AT DEATH VALLEY, CA

LOW WED...15 AT BURGESS JUNCTION, WY AND RICHEL LODGE, MT

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT WEDNESDAY...SAN ANGELO, TX 1.12 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6- TO 10-DAY PERIOD:

There is a general ridge across much of the U.S. with disturbances along the Canadian border, in the West, and more out in the Pacific. The pattern continues to be rather progressive going into early May with troughs and ridges easily moving through North America. A ridge will move into the West late next week and will be hard to remove from the Central U.S. the following week.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar with the overall pattern, though they disagree about some of the details with each system moving through.

I will use a blend but favor the European.

A system will move east through the Midwest early next week. The southern end of its cold front may get stuck in the Plains, which would likely form another system that moves northeast through the country mid-late next week.

Temperatures are likely to fall behind the early week system, but with generally near or above normal temperatures that should last through next week.

Warmer temperatures should build in the Plains next weekend underneath the expanding ridge.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A system will move through with showers across the south Thursday. More widespread showers should return over the weekend with another system moving through into Monday. Rainfall amounts will maintain overall decent topsoil moisture for most of the region and could be heavy enough this weekend to reduce some of the drought. Cooler temperatures have been in place most of the week, but should increase over the weekend before falling briefly behind the system early next week. Temperatures will be on the rise afterward in early May. Soil temperatures should be increasing regardless, allowing for some more planting to get done in areas that aren't so chilly or wet.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Showers and thunderstorms were heavy in some areas that have been dry on Wednesday. Several more days of widespread showers and thunderstorms are forecast into next week that will likely bring more rainfall to needed areas, but also with potential for severe weather and delays to planting.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Recent heavy rainfall in parts of the region have eased drought and increased soil moisture, but also are causing limitations to planting. Multiple systems and fronts will move through the region to close out April and start May in a busy overall pattern that could continue these planting concerns. However, the region will also see some dry days between systems and could be enough time to get out and do some work for those that aren't too wet.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (CORN/SOYBEANS/COTTON/TRANSPORTATION): A front is stalled in the region, bringing periods of showers through at least Friday and probably through the weekend. Some areas remain too wet for much planting and the rain moving through this week will not be helpful. The Mississippi River remains in flood stage along most of the path through the region, though water levels are starting to fall across the north. The rainfall this week could stall that progress in some areas.

BRAZIL (CORN): Scattered showers have been moving through much of central Brazil over the last week, favorable for maintaining soil moisture for safrinha corn in most areas. A front will pass through Thursday and Friday with more widespread showers and another should go through late this weekend into next week, extending the wet season while corn finishes pollination and begins the fill period. After a scare of dry conditions for April, much of the region has received near or above normal rainfall, favorable for the corn.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Drier conditions have favored the continued harvest. A couple of fronts will move through over the next few days, but showers again look limited and mostly favorable for fieldwork. The country would prefer for rainfall to come at least somewhat regularly to maintain soil moisture for winter wheat, which will start to be planted in May.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Scattered showers have been moving through Europe fairly regularly over the last week and continue this week as well. That has favored winter wheat development, but also produced some delays to planting.

However, most areas now have good soil moisture outside of the northeast, which needs more rain. Rainfall this week has been largely missing those drier areas in the northeast and the pattern should be quieter and warmer next week with a system returning showers to western areas later next week. Poland especially could have more concerning weather conditions, at least for the time being.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Conditions have been good for planting, but not for plant growth in the region. Limited showers have been moving through this week, but a front moving through this weekend will usher in some cooler temperatures and more dry conditions for next week. Overall, it's still poor weather conditions for wheat growth, and better for corn planting.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Many areas are still dry and need more rain despite some recent showers. A front brought through some areas of showers to the west on Wednesday, moving through with patchy showers to the east to close out the week. But more areas will be missed than hit and will need more rain for wheat and canola planting and establishment. Western areas have been more favorable with periodic rainfall, but that may be slowing down.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Isolated showers. Temperatures above normal.

East: Isolated showers northwest. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated to scattered showers through Friday. Mostly dry Saturday.

Isolated to scattered showers Sunday-Monday. Temperatures near to above normal through Saturday, above normal Sunday-Monday.

East: Isolated to scattered showers through Friday. Mostly dry Saturday-Monday.

Temperatures above normal through Friday, near normal Saturday-Sunday, above normal Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Saturday. Temperatures above normal Tuesday, near normal Wednesday-Saturday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Monday. Temperatures near to above normal through Saturday, above normal Sunday-Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday, near to below normal Wednesday-Thursday, near to above normal Friday-Saturday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers north Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Saturday.

Scattered showers Sunday, north Monday. Temperatures near to above normal through Sunday, near to below normal Monday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Monday. Temperatures near to above normal through Monday.

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