DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There is a general ridge across much of the U.S. with disturbances along the Canadian border, one moving into the West, and more out in the Pacific. These features and additional troughs and ridges will move through the country rather easily for the rest of the month.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

The busier pattern will continue into early May with no stagnant features and multiple troughs and ridges moving through the country. We may see a ridge set up across the North-Central next weekend, though.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar with the overall pattern, though they disagree about some of the details with each system moving through.

I will use a blend but favor the European.

A system in the Plains will push east early next week. There is some potential for the southern end of the front to get stuck in the Plains, which would likely form another system that moves northeast through the country around the middle of next week. Temperatures are likely to fall behind the early week system, but with generally near or above normal temperatures that should last through next week.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH TUE...103 AT RIO GRANDE VILLAGE, TX

LOW TUE...6 AT PETER SINKS, UT

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT TUESDAY...BATON ROUGE, LA 2.49 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6- TO 10-DAY PERIOD:

There is a general ridge across much of the U.S. with disturbances along the Canadian border, one moving into the West, and more out in the Pacific. The pattern will be rather progressive going into early May with troughs and ridges easily moving through North America. This is a generally busy pattern for the country.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar with the overall pattern, though they disagree about some of the details with each system moving through.

I will use a blend but favor the European.

A system in the Plains will push east early next week. There is some potential for the southern end of the front to get stuck in the Plains, which would likely form another system that moves northeast through the country around the middle of next week. Temperatures are likely to fall behind the early week system, but with generally near or above normal temperatures that should last through next week.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Limited showers continue for a couple of days before another system clears out the showers on Thursday. More widespread showers should return over the weekend with another system moving through. Rainfall amounts will maintain overall decent topsoil moisture for most of the region and could be heavy enough this weekend to reduce some of the drought. Cooler temperatures will be in place most of the week, but should increase over the weekend before falling briefly behind the system early next week. Soil temperatures should be increasing regardless, allowing for some more planting to get done in areas that aren't so chilly or wet.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): The southwestern Plains, and especially western Kansas, have been rather dry lately. That would be concerning, but multiple fronts and systems are forecast to move through the region going into early May, which may bring some of these drier areas some needed rainfall. If they get missed too often, winter wheat conditions will continue to fall. The multiple rounds may also limit spring planting in some areas as well.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Recent heavy rainfall in parts of the region have eased drought and increased soil moisture, but also are causing limitations to planting. Multiple systems and fronts will move through the region to close out April and start May in a busy overall pattern that could continue these planting concerns. However, the region will also see some dry days between systems and could be enough time to get out and do some work for those that aren't too wet.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (CORN/SOYBEANS/COTTON/TRANSPORTATION): A front is stalled in the region, bringing periods of showers through at least Friday and probably through the weekend. Some areas remain too wet for much planting and the rain moving through this week will not be helpful. The Mississippi River remains in flood stage along most of the path through the region, though water levels are starting to fall across the north. The rainfall this week could stall that progress in some areas.

BRAZIL (CORN): Scattered showers have been moving through much of central Brazil over the last week, favorable for maintaining soil moisture for safrinha corn in most areas. Showers have been limited early this week, but should pick up in intensity and coverage as a front goes by Thursday and Friday. Another should go through late this weekend into next week, extending the wet season while corn finishes pollination and begins the fill period. After a scare of dry conditions for April, much of the region has received near or above normal rainfall, favorable for the corn.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Drier conditions have favored the continued harvest. A couple of fronts will move through this week, but showers again look limited and mostly favorable for fieldwork. The country would prefer for rainfall to come at least somewhat regularly to maintain soil moisture for winter wheat, which will start to be planted in May.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Scattered showers have been moving through Europe fairly regularly over the last week and continue this week as well. That has favored winter wheat development, but also produced some delays to planting.

However, most areas now have good soil moisture outside of the northeast, which needs more rain. Rainfall this week will largely miss those drier areas in the northeast and the pattern should be quieter and milder next week. Poland especially could have more concerning weather conditions, at least for the time being.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Conditions have been good for planting, but not for plant growth. Limited showers will continue to move through this week, but a front moving through this weekend will usher in some cooler temperatures and more dry conditions for next week. Overall, it's still poor weather conditions for wheat growth.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Many areas are still dry and need more rain despite some recent showers. A front will bring through some areas of showers the rest of the week, but more areas will be missed than hit and will need more rain for wheat and canola planting and establishment. Western areas have been more favorable with periodic rainfall.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Isolated showers. Temperatures above normal.

East: Isolated showers northwest. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated to scattered showers through Friday. Mostly dry Saturday.

Isolated showers Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal through Sunday.

East: Isolated to scattered showers through Friday. Mostly dry Saturday-Sunday.

Temperatures above normal through Friday, near normal Saturday-Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Monday-Friday. Temperatures above normal Monday-Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday-Friday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Sunday. Temperatures above normal Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday-Saturday, above normal Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Monday-Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Temperatures above normal Monday, near to above normal Tuesday, near to below normal Wednesday-Thursday, near to above normal Friday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Wednesday. Scattered showers north Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Saturday. Scattered showers Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal through Sunday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal through Sunday.

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