DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

Two troughs are merging together across the West with a ridge moving into the East. By this weekend, the merged troughs may once again split. One trough is expected to move through southern Canada while the second trough lifts northeast from the Southern Plains into the Great Lakes.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

Next week, the pattern may get a little more stagnant with a trough in West and a ridge in the East. That is usually an active pattern for the middle of the country.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar with the overall pattern, though they disagree about some of the details with each system moving through.

I will use a blend but favor the European.

Some pieces from next week's western trough will try to break off and push east while making their way through the ridge. The center of the country could see multiple rounds of showers and storms next week and temperatures are favored to be above normal in the Southern Plains into the Eastern Midwest.

Temperatures in the Northern Plains could remain below average.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH WED...103 AT RIO GRANDE VILLAGE, TX

LOW WED...8 AT PETER SINKS, UT

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT WEDNESDAY...CARIBOU, ME 0.31 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6- TO 10-DAY PERIOD:

Two troughs are merging together across the West with a ridge moving into the East. By this weekend, the merged troughs may once again split. One trough is expected to move through southern Canada while the second trough lifts northeast from the Southern Plains into the Great Lakes. Next week, the pattern may get a little more stagnant with a trough in West and a ridge in the East.

That is usually an active pattern for the middle of the country.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar with the overall pattern, though they disagree about some of the details with each system moving through.

I will use a blend but favor the European.

Some pieces from next week's western trough will try to break off and push east while making their way through the ridge. The center of the country could see multiple rounds of showers and storms next week and temperatures are favored to be above normal in the Southern Plains into the Eastern Midwest.

Temperatures in the Northern Plains could remain below average.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Though the weather pattern has been active and soil moisture has improved in a lot of areas, long-term drought still remains across much of the region and will not go away easily. A system will move through on Thursday, providing some showers, but next week could favor better chances for multiple rounds of showers. Temperatures are expected to fall on Thursday and this will be the start of a more extended period of cooler temperatures which may delay the rising of soil temperatures and planting.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): The conditions for planting have been favorable, but with temperatures like summer across the south, it has not been favorable for developing winter wheat. The region should start to get more active again later this week and this weekend with a couple of systems moving through. Southwestern areas that have been somewhat drier lately need to see more rain and they may get it with a system that comes through this weekend, which is targeting this area with moderate to heavy rain and thunderstorms. The pattern next week also looks favorable for bringing more rain chances through the region, but temperatures could remain on the warmer side in southern areas.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Some planting and fieldwork progress took place earlier this week with drier weather. A system on Thursday and Friday should bring more widespread rain chances and the threat for severe thunderstorms. More systems are forecast for the late weekend and next week, keeping the region very active. Wet areas across the south are going to have many chances for bringing more water through, delaying planting and drowning winter wheat. Limited areas of drought across the northwest will have opportunity for further reduction. Temperatures will start to drop across the northwest late this week but remain above average in the east into early next week.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (CORN/SOYBEANS/COTTON/TRANSPORTATION): The past few days have been on the drier side, allowing for better conditions to drain excessive water out of soils. Flooding along the Mississippi will take a lot of time to be reduced. A more active weather pattern this weekend and next week could create further flood conditions and limit potential for fieldwork, causing delays and potential damage.

BRAZIL (CORN): Precipitation moving north from Argentina will be on the lighter side through this weekend. Below-normal soil moisture will be called upon to provide needed moisture too early and this could damage the corn. Showers could continue to remain sparse early next week until a system from Paraguay or northern Argentina works east to provide more moderate showers to southern Brazil by the middle of next week.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): A front continues to move through central and northern areas on Thursday. The country will likely get drier this weekend into early next week with chances returning later in the week. Both corn and soybeans continue to mature across the country and would prefer drier weather to harvest so some delays may occur through the end of the week. Next week's weather should allow for more harvest progress as showers could be more spotty.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Multiple waves of moisture moving into western Europe are favorable for winter wheat in the northwest. Several systems will move through over the next week which should provide some beneficial rainfall for much of the continent. Temperatures will generally be above normal through this active period, with the exception of Spain and Portugal, which will be closer to average. The warmer temperatures favor developing winter wheat as well as rising soil temperatures for spring planting. However, the wetter forecast could make planting a slow process.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Above normal temperatures are expected to continue into next week. The Caucasus have received some beneficial rainfall over the past few days, but it was confined to a smaller area. Systems regularly moving through Europe will lose a lot of their moisture as they move into Ukraine and western Russia, providing only limited and spotty showers through early next week. The lower precipitation forecast is not favorable for much of eastern Ukraine and southwestern Russia that are still trying to recover from long-term drought.

AUSTRALIA (COTTON/SORGHUM/WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Soils have more moisture for winter wheat and canola planting after another round of rain moved through western areas during the middle of the week. Northeastern areas have been mostly dry this week, but they may start to get too dry with little rainfall in the forecast through the rest of the month. The southeast has been much drier and is in need of some rain, which is likely later this weekend into early next week.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Isolated showers late. Temperatures near to above normal.

East: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated to scattered showers Thursday-Monday. Temperatures above normal Thursday, falling on Friday, near to below normal Saturday-Monday.

East: Isolated to scattered showers Thursday-Monday. Temperatures near to above normal Thursday, above normal Friday, near to above normal Saturday-Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Saturday.

Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday-Saturday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Isolated showers north. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers Thursday-Sunday. Mostly dry Monday.

Temperatures above to well above normal Thursday, falling Friday, near to below normal Saturday-Sunday, near normal Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Saturday.

Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday-Saturday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Thursday. Isolated showers Friday-Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday-Monday. Temperatures near to above normal Thursday-Friday, near to below normal Saturday-Monday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Isolated to scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Monday. Temperatures near to above normal through Monday.

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