DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There is a trough in the East, one off the California coast and another digging into western Canada. The troughs will be active, moving through North America quite easily through this weekend.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

Next week, the pattern may get a little more stagnant with a trough in West and a ridge in the East. That is usually an active pattern for the middle of the country.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar with the overall pattern, though they disagree about some of the details with each system moving through.

I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A system should go from the Southern Plains into the Midwest this weekend into early next week with widespread rain and thunderstorms. Another is likely for the middle of next week. Temperatures should generally be below normal in the Northwest and above normal in the South and East with these overall upper-air features being a little stagnant.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH MON...107 AT RIO GRANDE VILLAGE, TX

LOW MON...4 BELOW ZERO AT PETER SINKS, UT

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT MONDAY...SAULT STE MARIE, MI 0.74 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6- TO 10-DAY PERIOD:

There is a trough in the East, one off the California coast, and another digging into western Canada. The troughs will be active, moving through North America quite easily through this weekend. Next week, the pattern may get a little more stagnant with a trough in West and a ridge in the East. That is usually an active pattern for the middle of the country.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar with the overall pattern, though they disagree about some of the details with each system moving through.

I will use a blend but favor the European.

A system should go from the Southern Plains into the Midwest this weekend into early next week with widespread rain and thunderstorms. Another is likely for the middle of next week. Temperatures should generally be below normal in the Northwest and above normal in the South and East with these overall upper-air features being a little stagnant.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Though the weather pattern has been active and soil moisture has improved in a lot of areas, long-term drought still remains across much of the region and will not go away easily. Another system moving through later this week could bring some showers, but there is one that should move through over the weekend or early next week that has a chance for at least eastern areas to receive needed rainfall. While temperatures are riding a roller coaster this week, they should trend below normal next week, which may delay the rising of soil temperatures and planting.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): It was largely dry over the weekend, favorable for planting. But with temperatures like summer across the south, it has not been favorable for developing winter wheat. The region should start to get more active again later this week and this weekend with a couple of systems moving through. Southwestern areas that have been somewhat drier lately need to see more rain and they may get it with a system that comes through this weekend, which is targeting this area with moderate to heavy rain and thunderstorms. The pattern next week also looks favorable for bringing more rain chances through the region.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A system will continue to work through eastern areas on Tuesday. Another system later this week should bring more widespread rain chances and the threat for severe thunderstorms. More systems are forecast for the late weekend and next week, keeping the region very active. Wet areas across the south are going to have many chances for bringing more water through, delaying planting and drowning winter wheat.

Limited areas of drought across the northwest will have opportunity for further reduction. Temperatures will continue to swing with systems moving through.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (CORN/SOYBEANS/COTTON/TRANSPORTATION): The past few days have been on the drier side, allowing for better conditions to drain excessive water out of soils. Flooding along the Mississippi will take a lot of time to be reduced. A more active weather pattern this weekend and next week could create further flood conditions and limit potential for fieldwork, causing delays and potential damage.

BRAZIL (CORN): A front moved into the south over the weekend, bringing some much-needed heavier rain. Additional fronts moving up from Argentina should be supplying continued rainfall through next week. If these fronts produce what is being forecast, that should benefit pollinating corn. If they under-produce, then the below-normal soil moisture will be called upon to provide needed moisture too early and that could damage the corn.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): A front will continue to bring periods of moderate rain to central Argentina on Tuesday. Another front will move through late this week. The country will likely get drier next week. Both corn and soybeans continue to mature across the country and would prefer drier weather to harvest so some delays may occur through the middle of this week. Next week's weather should allow for more harvest progress.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): More moisture is still needed for winter wheat in the northwest. Several systems will move through over the next two weeks which should provide some beneficial rainfall for much of the continent. Temperatures will generally be above normal through this active period, with the exception of Spain and Portugal, which will be closer to average. The warmer temperatures favor developing winter wheat as well as rising soil temperatures for spring planting. However, the wetter forecast could make planting a slow process.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Above normal temperatures are expected to expand through this week and next week. A system in far southwest Russia will continue to bring showers into the Caucasus on Tuesday. Systems regularly moving through Europe will lose a lot of their moisture as they move into Ukraine and western Russia, providing only limited and spotty showers through early next week. The lower precipitation forecast is not favorable for much of eastern Ukraine and southwestern Russia that are still trying to recover from long-term drought.

AUSTRALIA (COTTON/SORGHUM/WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Soils have more moisture for winter wheat and canola planting after recent rains in western areas.

Northeastern areas have seen some drier weather after heavy rain, creating mostly favorable conditions as well. The southeast has been much drier and is in need of some rain. These areas should get some rainfall near the coast later this weekend. But northeastern areas may start to get too dry again with little rainfall in the forecast for the rest of the month.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Isolated showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

East: Isolated showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast:

West: Mostly dry Tuesday. Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday-Saturday.

Temperatures near to below normal Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday, above normal Thursday-Friday, near to below normal Saturday.

East: Isolated showers Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday. Isolated to scattered showers Thursday-Saturday. Temperatures near to below normal Tuesday-Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday, above normal Friday, near to above normal Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Sunday-Thursday.

Temperatures near to below normal north and above normal south Sunday, near to above normal Monday-Tuesday, near to below normal northwest and above normal southeast Wednesday-Thursday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures near to below normal northwest and above normal southeast.

Forecast: Mostly dry Tuesday. Isolated showers Wednesday-Friday. Scattered showers Saturday. Temperatures near normal Tuesday, above normal Wednesday-Thursday, falling Friday, near to below normal Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Sunday. Mostly dry Monday.

Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Thursday. Temperatures near to below normal Sunday, near to above normal Monday-Tuesday, near to below normal Wednesday-Thursday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers north Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday-Thursday.

Isolated showers Friday-Saturday. Temperatures near normal through Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday-Friday, near normal Saturday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Isolated to scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal through Saturday.

(c) Copyright 2025 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.