Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Overly wet conditions in the Mid-South and Midwest, rain chances for the southwestern Plains, and a questionable rainfall forecast in Brazil are the weather factors driving the markets Monday.

MIDWEST GETTING ACTIVE AGAIN THIS WEEK

A system moved into the Midwest over the weekend with some limited areas of showers. The system will continue to bring some rain chances through Tuesday before exiting. Another system later this week should bring more widespread rain chances. More systems are forecast for the late weekend and next week, keeping the region very active. Wet areas across the south are going to have many chances for bringing more water through, delaying planting and drowning winter wheat. Limited areas of drought across the northwest will have opportunity for further reduction. Temperatures will continue to swing with systems moving through.

POTENTIAL FOR NEEDED RAIN IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

It was largely dry for the Central and Southern Plains over the weekend, favorable for planting. But with temperatures like summer across the south, it has not been favorable for developing winter wheat. The region should start to get more active again this week with a couple of systems moving through. Southwestern areas that have been somewhat drier lately need to see more rain and they may get it with a system that comes through this weekend, which is targeting this area with moderate to heavy rain and thunderstorms. The pattern next week also looks favorable for bringing more rain chances through the region.

LIMITED SHOWERS, BUT MANY CHANCES FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS

Scattered showers went through the Northern Plains over the weekend and isolated showers should continue Monday. Though the weather pattern has been active and soil moisture has improved in a lot of areas, long-term drought still remains across much of the region and will not go away easily. Another system moving through later this week could bring some showers, but there is one that should move through over the weekend or early next week that has a chance for at least eastern areas to receive needed rainfall. While temperatures are riding a roller coaster this week, they should trend below normal next week, which may delay the rising of soil temperatures and planting.

DRIER IN THE DELTA

It was drier in the Delta over the weekend, allowing for better conditions to drain excessive water out of soils. Flooding along the Mississippi will take a lot of time. A more active weather pattern this weekend and next week could create further flood conditions and limit potential for fieldwork, causing delays and potential damage.

FRONTS MOVING THROUGH BRAZIL, QUESTIONABLE RAINFALL

A front moved into southern Brazil over the weekend, bringing some much-needed heavier rain. Additional fronts moving up from Argentina should be supplying continued rainfall through next week. If these fronts produce what is being forecast, that should benefit pollinating corn. If they under-produce, then the below-normal soil moisture will be called upon to provide needed moisture too early and that could damage the corn.

SOME RAIN FOR SOUTHERN ARGENTINA

A front brought moderate rain to southern Argentina on Friday. Another will do something similar on Monday into Tuesday. Another front will move through late this week. The country will likely get drier next week. Both corn and soybeans continue to mature across the country and would prefer drier weather to harvest so some delays may occur.

WET PATTERN FOR EUROPE

A system moved into western Europe over the weekend, bringing some needed rain to the northwest, but more will be needed for winter wheat. Several systems will move through over the next two weeks, which should provide some beneficial rainfall for much of the continent. Temperatures will generally be above normal through this active period, favoring developing winter wheat as well as rising soil temperatures for spring planting. However, the wetter forecast could make planting a slow process.

LIMITED SHOWERS FOR BLACK SEA REGION

Temperatures rose in the Black Sea region over the weekend and should be above normal for the next two weeks. Systems regularly moving through Europe will lose a lot of their moisture as they move through the region and some this week will miss completely. The lower precipitation forecast is not favorable for much of eastern Ukraine and southwestern Russia that are still trying to recover from long-term drought.

DRIER IN EASTERN AUSTRALIA

Western Australia saw more rainfall over the weekend, helping prep soils for winter wheat and canola planting. Northeastern areas have seen some drier weather after heavy rain, creating mostly favorable conditions as well. The southeast has been much drier and is in need of some rain. These areas should get some rainfall near the coast later this week and weekend. But northeastern areas may start to get too dry again with little rainfall in the forecast for the rest of the month.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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