DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There is a trough in the East with a ridge from the West into northern Canada. Another trough is in the Gulf of Alaska. The ridge will push eastward this weekend, kicking out the trough.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

A more progressive pattern is expected with the Gulf of Alaska trough moving eastward through North America early next week. Another small trough will move through midweek. We'll see a trough get into the Southwest with a secondary one in the Pacific Northwest next weekend.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar with the overall pattern, though they disagree about some of the details. I will use a blend but favor the European.

A system should go through mid-late week with the trough, being more like a clipper. Another system is likely for the weekend into the following week.

Temperatures will generally be warmer west and cooler east, but the degree to which is still being assessed by models.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH THU...104 AT RIO GRANDE VILLAGE, TX AND CIBOLA, AZ

LOW THU...0 AT PITTSBURG, NH

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT THURSDAY...CHARLOTTE, NC 0.69 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6- TO 10-DAY PERIOD:

There is a trough in the East with a ridge from the West into northern Canada. Another trough is in the Gulf of Alaska. The ridge will push eastward this weekend, kicking out the trough. This will kick start a more progressive pattern with the Gulf of Alaska trough moving eastward through North America early next week. Another small trough will move through midweek. We'll see a trough get into the Southwest with a secondary one in the Pacific Northwest next weekend.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar with the overall pattern, though they disagree about some of the details. I will use a blend but favor the European.

A system should go through mid-late week with the trough, being more like a clipper. Another system is likely for the weekend into the following week.

Temperatures will generally be warmer west and cooler east, but the degree to which is still being assessed by models.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A system will bring scattered showers this weekend. And a couple of systems will bring showers next week.

Recent precipitation has been improving soil moisture in many areas, but long-term drought remains a problem heading into the season. Spring planting will be increasing, though temperature swings could cause some to pause a bit and wait for more consistent warmth.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Dry conditions this week with rising temperatures have been favorable for fieldwork and planting, but not wheat development. Isolated showers are possible this weekend and next week, but forecasts are not very consistent and do not suggest large amounts of rain and that could lead to large losses of soil moisture with temperatures largely above normal.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Flooding continues across the southern end of the region, which was slowed from receding from scattered showers and thunderstorms over the last couple of days. Fieldwork is also on hold for a while as it takes a long time to drain fields and local rivers from flood stage. Another system will move through Sunday and Monday, but likely with limited precipitation. Another is forecast for later next week that could have more widespread rain and thunderstorms. Overall below normal rainfall through next week, even with these couple of systems moving through, should be more beneficial for draining soils. Temperatures will continue to fluctuate quite a bit though, and may give some pause for doing fieldwork or planting until more consistent warmth settles in.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (CORN/SOYBEANS/COTTON/TRANSPORTATION): Extreme wetness and flooding continues for a while across the north. Some additional showers will be possible with a couple of systems next week, but below-normal precipitation should overall aid the draining process. Fieldwork will be slow to recover and some replanting will have to be done due to the flooding.

BRAZIL (CORN): A front moving through this week has been producing scattered showers, but mostly light and scattered instead of the heavy and widespread rain that the country needs. Another pair of fronts will move through next week with much of the same. We continue to forecast below-normal rainfall through the end of the month, with much of the rain being dependent upon fronts moving up from Argentina, typical for this time of year. Models seem to think these fronts could contain significant precipitation, but that has not panned out so far. That below-normal rainfall forecast is not favorable for corn, as many areas still have below-normal soil moisture heading into the primary pollination period.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): A front will move through Friday and Saturday, but with more spotty showers and mostly across the south. The same goes for a front early next week. Both corn and soybeans continue to mature across the country and the overall drier forecast is more favorable for harvest. Passing fronts at times could cause some occasional delays, however.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Eastern areas have seen some periods of showers this week. Recent fronts have been bringing in some colder air to the east as well, causing areas of snow and frost. Areas in the northwest have been very dry the last couple of months and need some rain. The pattern will become much more active starting this weekend as systems rapidly move through the continent next week with widespread rainfall. That is much more favorable for wheat, but may cause some delays to early spring planting.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Cold air this week has been causing frosts.

While wheat is not very vulnerable to the cold temperatures, it will not be good for crop development. Scattered showers have been moving through recently as well. While improvements to soil moisture should be noted, long-term drought still extends through much of the region for early wheat development. A more active period next week in Europe may bring additional showers, but the heavier rainfall should be off to the west.

AUSTRALIA (COTTON/SORGHUM/WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Western areas have seen improvements to soil moisture as winter wheat and canola planting should commence shortly. Northeastern areas have seen much needed drier weather after last week's heavy rainfall that may have caused damage and delays to the cotton and sorghum harvest. The rainfall was good for some areas that have been much drier ahead of wheat and canola planting. Western areas will see some showers this weekend. Southeastern areas are still too dry and need to see some rain prior to fall planting, but their next chance doesn't come until late next week.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Isolated showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

East: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast:

West: Mostly dry Friday-Saturday. Isolated showers Sunday-Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday. Temperatures near to above normal through Saturday, above normal Sunday-Monday, near to below normal Tuesday.

East: Mostly dry Friday-Saturday. Isolated showers Sunday-Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday. Temperatures near to below normal through Saturday, near to above normal Sunday-Monday, near to below normal Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Wednesday. Isolated to scattered showers Thursday-Friday. Mostly dry Saturday-Sunday. Temperatures near to below normal Wednesday-Saturday, near to above normal Sunday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Saturday. Isolated showers Sunday-Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday. Temperatures above normal through Sunday, near to above normal Monday-Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday-Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Saturday. Scattered showers Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal Wednesday-Sunday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Friday. Isolated showers Saturday-Sunday. Mostly dry Monday. Isolated showers Tuesday. Temperatures near to above normal through Saturday, near normal Sunday-Tuesday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Tuesday. Temperatures near to above normal through Tuesday.

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