USDA Reports Summary
USDA Cuts US Corn Ending Stocks, Boosts Corn Exports by 100 MB
This article was originally published at 11:01 a.m. CDT on Monday, April 10. It was last updated with additional information at 11:33 a.m. CDT on Monday, April 10.
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OMAHA (DTN) -- USDA cut domestic corn ending stocks more sharply than pre-report estimates and boosted corn exports by 100 million bushels.
Ending stocks for corn in the 2024-25 crop were lowered to 1.465 billion bushels (bb) with 100 million more bushes of export demand.
USDA released its latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) and Crop Production reports on Thursday.
Thursday's U.S. ending stocks estimates were bullish for corn and soybeans and moderately bearish for wheat, according to DTN Lead Analyst Rhett Montgomery. World ending stocks estimates from USDA were slightly bullish for corn, neutral for soybeans and neutral for wheat, he said.
Stay tuned throughout the morning and refresh this page often, as we will be sending a series of updates with the important highlights from Thursday's reports, including commentary from our analysts.
You can also view the full reports here:
-- Crop Production: https://www.nass.usda.gov/…
-- World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE): http://www.usda.gov/…
CORN
The big changes in domestic corn came in demand as production numbers and old-crop carryover held pat.
Corn production for the 2024-25 crop was held at 14.867 billion bushels. USDA held the national yield at 179.3 bushels per acre. Harvested acres were 82.9 million.
For demand, projected total Feed and Residual use is 5.75 bb, down 25 million bushels. Ethanol use is forecast at 5.5 bb, the same as last month. Total domestic use is forecast at 12.64 bb, down 25 mb.
Corn exports are pegged at 2.55 bb, up 100 mb from March.
Ending stocks for the 2024-25 crop were 1.465 bb, down 75 mb from March.
The farmgate price for 2024-25 was $4.35 a bushel, the same as last month.
Globally, USDA also held pat on production for both Brazil and Argentina. Brazil's production was held at 126 million metric tons (mmt) and exports held at 44 mmt. Argentina's production was maintained at 50 mmt and exports at 36 mmt. Trade analysts had expected slightly lower production in Argentina.
Globally, 2024-25 corn beginning stocks came in at 314.33 million metric tons, up 0.38 mmt. Global ending stocks were pegged at 287.65 mmt, down 1.29 mmt. USDA raised global exports 2.32 mmt to 188.68 mmt.
SOYBEANS
USDA lowered ending stocks for the old-crop 2024-25 by 5 million bushels to 375 mb, within the range of pre-report expectation. USDA got there by making numerous small changes.
Soybean production was unchanged, but imports climbed by 5 mb to 25 mb. That raised overall supply to 4.734 bb. Crush use is 10 mb higher. USDA shifted 3 mb from seed use and instead plugged it into the residual category. The result was 10 mb more total usage, at 4.359 bb, and a 5-mb reduction to ending stocks. The national average farm gate price was unchanged at $9.95 per bushel.
Globally, USDA boosted ending stocks by 1.06 million metric tons to 122.47 mmt. Brazil and Argentina production was left unchanged at 169 mmt and 49 mmt respectively.
For the 2023-24 marketing year, USDA raised Brazilian production by 1.5 mmt to 154.5 mmt, reflecting a review of usage data.
In the report summary, USDA notes some tariff impacts for soybean oil, noting that soybean exports for oil are forecast higher on export sales data, but domestic use of bean oil for biofuel is forecast lower due to the pace of use. "However, stronger use is forecast for the last part of the marketing year due to tariffs impacting imports of other biofuel feedstocks, like used cooking oil," the report stated.
WHEAT
USDA estimates increased U.S. wheat ending stocks for the 2024-2025 season at 846 million bushels from 819 mb in March. USDA cut total use by 17 million bushels, down from 1.989 mb last month.
Imports were increased from 140 mb to 150 mb in April, while USDA trimmed exports by 15 mb.
Average wheat farm gate price was estimated at $5.50 per bushel, unchanged from March.
Globally, 2024-25 wheat ending stocks were estimated at 260.7 million metric tons, increased from 260.08 mmt in the March estimate.
In South America, USDA estimates Argentina's ending stocks at 4.44 mmt, a slight decrease from 4.5 mmt in March. Brazil's ending stocks are estimated at 1.48 mmt. Australian ending stocks were estimated at 3.72 mmt, up from 3.22 mmt last month.
Ukrainian ending stocks are estimated at 1.49 mmt, a decrease from 1.69 mmt in March. Russian ending stocks were bumped up from 10.34 mmt to 11.34 mmt.
USDA estimated Russian exports at 44.0 mmt, a drop from 45.0 mmt in March. Ukraine's exports were pegged at 16.0 mmt, down from 15.5 mmt in March.
On the imports side of the balance sheet, USDA estimated China at 3.5 mmt, down from 6.5 mmt in March.
LIVESTOCK
Beef production for 2025 was increased by 15 million pounds, as heavier carcass weights and an increase in bull and cow slaughter speeds is more than offsetting the reduction in fed cattle slaughter, said DTN Livestock Analyst ShayLe Stewart.
"The quarterly steer price projection portion of the report was especially interesting, as steer prices in the second quarter are now expected to average $204, which is $6 more than last month's estimate. Steer prices in the third quarter are expected to average $206, which is $8 more than last month's estimate. And steer prices in the fourth quarter of 2025 are expected to average $207, which is $7 higher than last month's projection. 2025 beef imports were reduced by 15 million pounds, and 2025 beef exports were reduced by 135 million pounds."
Thursday's WASDE report shared unpleasant news for the hog and pork markets for 2025, Stewart said.
"Pork production for 2025 was decreased by 350 million pounds, as the latest Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report showed a reduction in the pig crop for 2024 and showed indications of lower farrowings for much of 2025. Unfortunately, weaker export demand has pushed quarterly hog prices lower throughout the year. Hog prices in the second quarter are expected to average $63, which is $2 lower than last month's estimate. Hog prices in the third quarter are expected to average $65, which is $3 lower than last month's estimate. And hog prices in the fourth quarter are expected to average $54, which is $2 lower than last month's estimate. Pork imports for 2025 fell by 10 million pounds, and pork exports for 2025 fell by 265 million pounds."
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Join us for DTN's webinar at 12:30 p.m. CDT Thursday, April 10, as we discuss USDA's new estimates considering recent market events. Questions are welcome, and registrants will receive a replay link for viewing at their convenience. Register here for Thursday's April WASDE report webinar here: https://www.dtn.com/….
| U.S. ENDING STOCKS (Million Bushels) 2024-25 | ||||||
| Apr | Avg | High | Low | Mar | 2023-24 | |
| Corn | 1,465 | 1,506 | 1,605 | 1,405 | 1,540 | 1,763 |
| Soybeans | 375 | 381 | 413 | 320 | 380 | 342 |
| Wheat | 846 | 822 | 854 | 795 | 819 | 696 |
| WORLD ENDING STOCKS (million metric tons) 2024-25 | ||||||
| Apr | Avg | High | Low | Mar | 2023-24 | |
| Corn | 287.7 | 288.0 | 290.0 | 285.0 | 288.9 | 314.0 |
| Soybeans | 122.5 | 122.0 | 124.0 | 121.0 | 121.4 | 112.6 |
| Wheat | 260.7 | 260.8 | 262.0 | 259.8 | 260.1 | 269.5 |
| WORLD PRODUCTION (million metric tons) 2024-25 | ||||||
| Apr | Avg | High | Low | Mar | 2023-24 | |
| CORN | ||||||
| Argentina | 50.0 | 49.3 | 51.0 | 48.0 | 50.0 | 51.0 |
| Brazil | 126.0 | 126.1 | 129.7 | 124.0 | 126.0 | 119.0 |
| SOYBEANS | ||||||
| Argentina | 49.0 | 48.7 | 49.5 | 47.5 | 49.0 | 48.2 |
| Brazil | 169.0 | 168.9 | 170.0 | 167.5 | 169.0 | 153.0 |
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