Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Flooding in the Mid-South and Midwest and some additional showers moving in this week, limited rain for the southwestern Plains, and limited showers in Brazil are the weather factors driving the markets Tuesday.

COLDER, SOME RAIN FOR SOGGY MIDWEST

Heavy rain led to widespread, intense flooding across the southern end of the Midwest last week. That will pause thoughts of fieldwork for a while as it takes a long time to drain fields and local rivers from flood stage. Some showers will move through mid-late this week but should not be heavy for too many areas. Cold temperatures early this week will give way to much higher readings later this week and weekend. The pattern will change back to a more active one next week with seesawing temperatures and systems moving through bringing scattered showers. Southern areas will not particularly like to see more rainfall anytime soon, but areas in the north, which have seen improvements in soil moisture and reductions in drought will find it more favorable prior to planting.

DRIER FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Much of the Central and Southern Plains received good precipitation from a long, drawn-out system last week except for western Kansas, which did not see much. Cold air that filtered in behind the system produced areas of frosts and freezes over the weekend into early this week. Wheat is not particularly vulnerable, but some damage may have occurred. Dry conditions are forecast this week with rising temperatures, favorable for fieldwork and planting, but not wheat development. Some precipitation is possible this weekend and next week, but forecasts are not very consistent.

LIMITED SHOWERS FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS

Isolated showers will pass through the Northern Plains Tuesday and Wednesday and a system is likely to bring scattered showers this weekend. Recent precipitation has been improving soil moisture in many areas, but long-term drought remains a problem heading into the season. There are still some chances going forward for an active pattern to help, but so far it hasn't.

FLOODING IN THE DELTA, SOME SHOWERS LATER THIS WEEK

Some areas of the Delta saw more than 10 inches of rain across the northern half of the region due to last week's rainstorm, which will take a long time to drain from fields and for local rivers to fall below flood stage. Some showers will move through northern areas mid-late this week, but a more active weather pattern next week could continue flooding potential. Fieldwork will be put on hold while floodwaters recede, which may take quite a long time. Some replanting will have to be done.

FRONTS MOVING THROUGH BRAZIL, BUT LIMITED RAINFALL

A front moving through Brazil this week will produce scattered showers, but mostly light and scattered instead of the heavy and widespread rain that the country needs. Another pair of fronts will move through next week. We continue to forecast below-normal rainfall through the end of the month, with much of the rain being dependent upon fronts moving up from Argentina, typical for this time of year. That below-normal forecast is not favorable for corn, where many areas still have below-normal soil moisture heading into the primary pollination period.

DRIER IN ARGENTINA, FAVORABLE FOR HARVEST

Frosts were noted across southern Argentina last Friday and Saturday, which may have caused some damage to a small portion of the crop there. A system brought showers for northern areas on Sunday and Monday. Another front will move through Friday and Saturday, but with more spotty showers. The same goes for a front early next week. Both corn and soybeans continue to mature across the country and the overall drier forecast is more favorable for fieldwork. Passing fronts at times could cause some occasional delays, however.

NORTHERN EUROPE TOO DRY

Eastern Europe saw some showers over the weekend, which continues this week as a couple more fronts move through. These fronts are also bringing in some colder air, causing areas of northeastern frost for a couple of days. Areas in the northwest have been very dry the last couple of months and need some rain. The pattern may become much more active starting this weekend as systems rapidly move through the continent next week with widespread rainfall. That is much more favorable for wheat but may cause some delays to early spring planting.

WAVES OF LIGHT SHOWERS, COLDER FOR BLACK SEA REGION

Cold air moved into the Black Sea region over the weekend and will continue to be in place most of the week. Northern areas are seeing frosts. While wheat is not very vulnerable to the cold temperatures, it will not be good for crop development. Scattered showers have been moving through recently and continue in waves this week with a few more fronts dropping through. While improvements to soil moisture should be noted, drought still extends through much of the region for early wheat development.

DRIER IN EASTERN AUSTRALIA

Western Australia saw showers over the weekend, improving soil moisture as winter wheat and canola planting should commence shortly. Eastern areas saw much needed drier weather over the weekend after last week's heavy rainfall that may have caused damage and delays to the cotton and sorghum crops. The rainfall was good for some areas here that have been much drier ahead of wheat and canola planting. This week will be much drier, though western areas will see some showers this weekend. Southeastern areas are still too dry and need to see some rain prior to fall planting.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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