Ag Weather Forum

A cold front is working off the East Coast on Monday, April 7, finally clearing the country after leading to a long-duration rainstorm over the past week. The front got going in the Plains and Midwest on Tuesday, April 1, and stalled from northeast Texas up through the Ohio Valley on Wednesday, April 2. Multiple disturbances riding along the front helped produce widespread severe weather and nearly continuous rainfall for four or five days. The front finally got moving over the weekend and is now heading off the coast, but not before dumping some additional heavy rainfall in parts of the Southeast.

Discounting the rain yet to fall, through 10 a.m. CDT Monday, April 7, rainfall amounts over the past seven days have added up to more than four inches in a widespread area from northeastern Texas and southeastern Oklahoma northeast through southern Ohio and into West Virginia. Some portions of the Southeast in Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia also saw amounts over four inches. However, it was the widespread rainfall over eight inches that encompassed much of Arkansas, western Tennessee, and the western half of Kentucky that is drawing the most attention. In this area, amounts exceeded 12 inches in several spots and came with rounds of severe weather to boot.

Massive flood warnings and damage have already been observed and the threats are not over, even though rain has ended. Power outages, washed-out roads and bridges, and damage to agriculture have already been noted, but it's not done yet.

Water levels on rivers and creeks throughout the region are either in or forecast to be in major flood stage this week. That includes large sections of the Ohio and Mississippi rivers as well. This massive amount of water will take a long time to leave. Forecasts for smaller creeks and rivers are set to crest this week. But for the Ohio and Mississippi, especially farther downstream, those crests may not happen until this weekend or next week. River forecasts can be found from the National Weather Service here: https://water.noaa.gov/….

That is assuming no other rain falls in the basin and adds to the devastation. Much of this week is forecast to be dry. However, a small system will bring scattered showers to the region Wednesday and Thursday, with possible lingering showers over eastern sections like Kentucky on Friday. Rainfall is forecast to be widely scattered and overall, not heavy, but there could be some moderate streaks of those receiving a little more than half of an inch and any amount of rain would delay flood waters from receding. A more-active weather pattern is shaping up for the second half of April, which could exacerbate conditions. Flooding is likely to be an issue in this region for weeks.

To read about this weather's effect on river transportation of grain, see DTN Cash Basis Analyst Mary Kennedy's column here: https://www.dtnpf.com/… .

Some stories regarding damages from the flooding and severe weather:

Arkansas -- https://www.kark.com/…

Tennessee -- https://www.al.com/…

Kentucky -- https://www.courier-journal.com/…

To find more weather conditions and your local forecast from DTN, head over to https://www.dtnpf.com/…

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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