Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Heavy rain, flooding, and severe weather from the Southern Plains through the Midwest, but limited shower chances in the southwestern Plains, drier weather in Argentina, and a poor April forecast for Brazil are the weather factors driving the markets Friday.

HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES FOR THE SOUTHERN MIDWEST

A front is stuck across the southern Midwest where heavy rain continued to fall on Thursday. Another system will move through Friday through the weekend with more heavy rain and potential severe weather, especially across the south. Though the heavy rain is helping to ease drought in the north, historic flooding potential in the south will cause it to be too wet to do fieldwork and will take a long time to drain out. Though mostly drier weather next week should help flood waters recede, we could see some isolated showers moving through later next week and temperatures will be falling below normal, making drying a slower prospect.

WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Showers continued across the Southern Plains on Thursday and a system riding along a front will continue across the region Friday and Saturday before leaving. Some very heavy amounts continue through southeastern and southwestern areas are getting some precipitation as well, though it will change over to snow for some in the Texas Panhandle. That will not be favorable and promote some cold nights for a few days after the system leaves. Wheat is not particularly vulnerable yet, but it is still not favorable for growth. A drier forecast next week will also not be favorable if areas get missed from the current system.

NORTHERN PLAINS GETTING DRIER AGAIN

Recent moderate precipitation in the Northern Plains has been beneficial for moistening soils in a lot of areas that needed it over the last week, but drought still covers large areas of the region and will not be wiped away so easily. Though some showers will move through on Friday and possibly next week, overall dryness that is forecast through next week won't be helpful for soils.

MORE HEAVY RAIN, SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE DELTA

A front continues to be stalled across the Delta Friday and heavy rain and severe weather continue before another system sweeps through over the weekend with more widespread showers and thunderstorms. Heavy rain that has already occurred and continues through the weekend will lead to flooding and delays to fieldwork and planting. Some areas that planted early may need to replant. Drier conditions are forecast for next week, but so are colder temperatures, which would slow down the retreat of floodwaters.

RAIN MOVING THROUGH BRAZIL, BUT BELOW NORMAL IN APRIL

A front is slowly moving north through Brazil, spreading scattered showers through the weekend. Amounts have been somewhat disappointing, however, and lower-than-normal soil moisture is not favorable for developing safrinha corn. Time is running out to build soil moisture before wet season rainfall shuts down later this month and the forecast is calling for continued below-normal rainfall. If the dry season comes too early, damage to pollinating and filling corn could result.

DRIER IN ARGENTINA, FAVORABLE FOR HARVEST

Largely dry conditions in Argentina this week should help with the maturing process for corn and soybeans as well as harvest. Colder air moving in for Friday and Saturday could produce some areas of frost across the south and damage a small portion of the immature crop. Precipitation will return across the north with a small system for late Sunday and Monday, but the drier forecast overall is favorable for the end of the season.

NORTHERN EUROPE GETTING TOO DRY

Showers continue in Spain on Friday. Northern Europe is now drier and could use some rain. A front pushing south through eastern areas this weekend could be somewhat beneficial there, but northwestern areas have not seen much precipitation over the last couple of months and the dryness may be more concerning. Next week looks to be a much drier period for the continent, though we could see that changing to a more active pattern next weekend, including for those drier northwest areas.

WAVES OF LIGHT SHOWERS FOR BLACK SEA REGION

Above-normal temperatures have been jarring wheat out of dormancy in largely poor condition with limited soil moisture in much of the Black Sea region. Limited showers continue to move through into next week, but not enough to reverse the overall dry soils in a lot of areas. Some improvements may be noted, however. A burst of colder air will move through with a system this weekend into early next week and cause frosts for much of next week. Wheat is not very vulnerable to damage, however.

RECENT HEAVY RAIN IN EASTERN AUSTRALIA

Recent heavy rain in northeastern Australia has been unfavorable and potentially damaging for unharvested cotton and sorghum, but favorable for increasing soil moisture for the coming winter wheat and canola crops, which should start to be planted over the next couple of weeks. It will be drier for most of next week, allowing more fieldwork to be done. Western areas have been drier and are in need of rain before wheat planting can begin. Some favorable showers will move through this area through Monday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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