DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There is a trough in the Southwest, one in the Canadian Prairies, and ridges in the East and western Canada. The eastern ridge will die out this weekend, allowing the troughs to combine in the East next week while the ridge takes over the West.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

Another trough will move over the ridge later next week, but the ridge should push the trough eastward over the weekend as a new trough moves into the West and likely restarts a somewhat active weather pattern.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar, though they disagree about some of the details. I will use a blend but favor the European.

The ridge spreading eastward should allow for above-normal temperatures to spread throughout much of the country as well. Cooler temperatures will move into the West with the trough. Some isolated showers will move through eastern areas late next week. Another system is likely to move through northern areas next weekend into the following week.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH THU...106 AT LAREDO, TX

LOW THU...20 BELOW ZERO AT PETER SINKS, UT

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT THURSDAY...MEMPHIS, TN 6.46 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6- TO 10-DAY PERIOD:

There is a trough in the Southwest, one in the Canadian Prairies, and ridges in the East and western Canada. The eastern ridge will die out this weekend, allowing the troughs to combine in the East next week while the ridge takes over the West. Another trough will move over the ridge later next week, but the ridge should push the trough eastward over the weekend as a new trough moves into the West and likely restarts a somewhat active weather pattern.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar, though they disagree about some of the details. I will use a blend but favor the European.

The ridge spreading eastward should allow for above-normal temperatures to spread throughout much of the country as well. Cooler temperatures will move into the West with the trough. Some isolated showers will move through eastern areas late next week. Another system is likely to move through northern areas next weekend into the following week.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT): Recent moderate precipitation in the region has been beneficial for moistening soils in a lot of areas that needed it over the last week, but drought still covers large areas of the region and will not be wiped away so easily. Though some showers will move through on Friday and possibly next week, overall dryness that is forecast through next week won't be helpful for soils.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Showers continued across the south on Thursday and a system riding along a southern front will continue showers across the region Friday and Saturday before leaving. Some very heavy amounts continue through southeastern areas and southwestern areas are getting some precipitation as well, though it will change over to snow for some in the Texas Panhandle. That will not be favorable and promote some cold nights for a few days after the system leaves. Wheat is not particularly vulnerable yet, but it is still not favorable for growth. A drier forecast next week will also not be favorable if areas get missed from the current system.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A front is stuck across the south where heavy rain continued to fall on Thursday. Another system will move through Friday through the weekend with more heavy rain and potential severe weather, especially across the south. Though the heavy rain is helping to ease drought in the north, historic flooding potential in the south will cause it to be too wet to do fieldwork and will take a long time to drain out. Though mostly drier weather next week should help flood waters recede, we could see some isolated showers moving through later next week and temperatures will be falling below normal, making drying a slower prospect.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (CORN/SOYBEANS/COTTON/TRANSPORTATION): A front continues to be stalled across the area Friday and heavy rain and severe weather continue before another system sweeps through over the weekend with more widespread showers and thunderstorms. Heavy rain that has already occurred and continues through the weekend will lead to flooding and delays to fieldwork and planting. Some areas that planted early may need to replant. Drier conditions are forecast for next week but so are colder temperatures, which would slow down the retreat of floodwaters.

BRAZIL (CORN): A front is slowly moving north through the country spreading scattered showers through the weekend. Amounts have been somewhat disappointing, however, and lower-than-normal soil moisture is not favorable for developing safrinha corn. Time is running out to build soil moisture before wet season rainfall shuts down later this month and the forecast is calling for continued below-normal rainfall. If the dry season comes too early, damage to pollinating and filling corn could result.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): Largely dry conditions this week should help with the maturing process for corn and soybeans as well as harvest. Colder air moving in for Friday and Saturday could produce some areas of frost across the south and damage a small portion of the immature crop. Precipitation will return across the north with a small system for late Sunday and Monday but the drier forecast overall is favorable for the end of the season.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT): Showers continue in Spain on Friday. Northern areas are now starting to turn drier and could use some rain. A front pushing south through eastern areas this weekend could be somewhat beneficial there, but northwestern areas have not seen much precipitation over the last couple of months and the dryness may be more concerning. Next week looks to be a much drier period for the continent, though we could see that changing to a more active pattern next weekend, including for those drier northwest areas.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT): Above-normal temperatures have been jarring wheat out of dormancy in largely poor condition with limited soil moisture in much of the region. Limited showers continue to move through into next week, but not enough to reverse the overall dry soils in a lot of areas. Some improvements may be noted, however. A burst of colder air will move through with a system this weekend into early next week and cause frosts for much of next week. Wheat is not very vulnerable to damage, however.

AUSTRALIA (COTTON/SORGHUM/WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Recent heavy rain in northeastern areas of the country have been unfavorable and potentially damaging for unharvested cotton and sorghum, but favorable for increasing soil moisture for the coming winter wheat and canola crops, which should start to be planted over the next couple of weeks. It will be drier for most of next week, allowing more fieldwork to be done. Western areas have been drier and are in need of rain before wheat planting can begin. Some favorable showers will move through this area through Monday.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers south. Temperatures near normal.

East: Scattered showers south. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast:

West: Scattered showers through Saturday, mostly south and very heavy. Mostly dry Sunday-Tuesday. Temperatures near normal Friday, below normal Saturday-Tuesday.

East: Scattered showers through Monday, very heavy south. Mostly dry Tuesday.

Temperatures near to above normal through Saturday, below normal Sunday-Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated showers Wednesday-Sunday. Temperatures below normal Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday-Saturday, above normal Sunday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday-Tuesday. Temperatures near to below normal Friday, below normal Saturday-Monday, near to below normal Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Wednesday-Sunday. Temperatures above normal Wednesday-Sunday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Friday-Sunday. Isolated to scattered showers Monday-Tuesday. Temperatures near to below normal Friday, below normal Saturday-Monday, near normal Tuesday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Tuesday. Temperatures near to above normal through Tuesday.

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