Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Heavy rain and severe weather from the Southern Plains through the Midwest, but limited shower chances in the southwestern Plains, drier weather in Argentina, and a poor April forecast for Brazil are the weather factors driving the markets Thursday.

HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES FOR THE MIDWEST

A system that moved through the Midwest on Wednesday brought widespread precipitation and severe weather, as well as heavy rain. The front to the system will get stuck across the south on Thursday where heavy rain is likely to continue. Then another system will move through Friday into the weekend with more heavy rain and potential severe weather, especially across the south. Though the heavy rain is helping to ease drought in the north, historic flooding potential in the south will cause it to be too wet to do fieldwork and will take a long time to drain out. Though mostly drier weather next week should help flood waters recede, temperatures will be falling below normal, making that a slower prospect.

WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

A system brought scattered showers to the Central and Southern Plains over the last couple of days, but mainly to eastern areas. The front to that system will get stuck across the south on Thursday with continued showers before a larger storm system moves through Friday and Saturday. That could be more favorable for getting showers into southwestern areas, though not all areas will be hit with meaningful precipitation, and it may include some snow. A couple of colder days that follow will bring frosty conditions to the southwestern Plains wheat areas and will not be favorable, either. Drought in Nebraska has been seeing some improvements lately and the southeast could see heavy, flooding rain. But if the weekend system disappoints, drought will continue to grow in the southwest as conditions will be much drier next week.

NORTHERN PLAINS GETTING DRIER AGAIN

Recent moderate precipitation in the Northern Plains has been beneficial for moistening soils in a lot of areas that needed it over the last week, but drought still covers large areas of the region and will not be wiped away so easily. Though some showers will move through on Friday, overall dryness that is forecast through next week won't be helpful for soils.

MORE HEAVY RAIN, SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE DELTA

A front that moved into the Delta on Wednesday brought severe weather and heavy rain. The front will remain stuck across the area for the rest of the week and heavy rain and some severe weather continue before another system sweeps through over the weekend with more widespread showers and thunderstorms. Heavy rain will lead to flooding and delays to fieldwork and planting. Some areas that planted early may need to replant. Drier conditions are forecast for next week but so are colder temperatures, which would slow down the retreat of floodwaters.

RAIN MOVING THROUGH BRAZIL, BUT BELOW NORMAL IN APRIL

A front is slowly moving north through Brazil this week, spreading scattered showers. Moderate to heavy rain has not been falling and the forecast has been poor for safrinha corn areas. Soil moisture continues to be below normal in a lot of the country and time is running out to build soil moisture before wet season rainfall shuts down this month. If the dry season comes too early, damage to pollinating and filling corn could result.

DRIER IN ARGENTINA, FAVORABLE FOR HARVEST

Largely dry conditions in Argentina this week should help with the maturing process for corn and soybeans as well as harvest. Colder air moving in for Friday and Saturday could produce some areas of frost across the south and damage a small portion of the immature crop. Precipitation will return across the north with a small system for late Sunday and Monday, but the drier forecast overall is favorable for the end of the season.

NORTHERN EUROPE GETTING TOO DRY

Showers continue across southern Europe for the rest of the week, with heavier rain in Spain. Northern areas are now starting to turn drier and could use some rain. A front pushing south through eastern areas this weekend could be somewhat beneficial there, but northwestern areas have not seen much precipitation over the last couple of months and the dryness may be more concerning. Next week looks to be a much drier period for the continent, though we could see that changing to a more active pattern next weekend.

WAVES OF LIGHT SHOWERS FOR BLACK SEA REGION

Above-normal temperatures have been bringing wheat out of dormancy in largely poor condition with limited soil moisture in much of the Black Sea region. Showers continue to move through into next week, but not enough to reverse the overall dry soils in a lot of areas. Some improvements may be noted, however. A burst of colder air will move through with a system this weekend into early next week and cause some frosts. Wheat is not very vulnerable to damage, however.

RECENT HEAVY RAIN IN EASTERN AUSTRALIA

Recent heavy rain in northeastern Australia has been unfavorable and potentially damaging for unharvested cotton and sorghum, but favorable for increasing soil moisture for the coming winter wheat and canola crops, which should start to be planted over the next couple of weeks. Western areas have been drier and are in need of rain before wheat planting can begin. Some favorable showers will move through this area through the weekend.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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