DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There is a trough in the West, one in the Canadian Prairies, and ridges in the East and North Pacific. The ridges will contain the troughs for a couple of days. But the eastern ridge will die out, allowing the troughs to combine and get stuck in the East for next week.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

The eastern trough will be reinforced by another moving over the ridge by late in the week. The western ridge should push the trough eastward the following week, as a new trough moves into the West and likely restarts an active weather pattern.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar, though they disagree about some of the details. I will use a blend but favor the European.

Colder air continues across the eastern half of the country while the West warms up under the ridge early next week. A reinforcing trough later next week could bring some additional showers to eastern areas and hold off the warmer air from advancing eastward for a couple of days. Warmer air should eventually spread eastward over the weekend or early the following week.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH WED...107 AT LA PUERTA, TX

LOW WED...14 BELOW ZERO AT PETER SINKS, UT

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT WEDNESDAY...LANSING, MI 1.73 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6- TO 10-DAY PERIOD:

There is a trough in the West, one in the Canadian Prairies, and ridges in the East and North Pacific. The ridges will contain the troughs for a couple of days. But the eastern ridge will die out, allowing the troughs to combine and get stuck in the East for next week, being reinforced by another trough moving over the ridge by late in the week. The western ridge should push the trough eastward the following week, as a new trough moves into the West and likely restarting an active weather pattern.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar, though they disagree about some of the details. I will use a blend but favor the European.

Colder air continues across the eastern half of the country while the West warms up under the ridge early next week. A reinforcing trough later next week could bring some additional showers to eastern areas and hold off the warmer air from advancing eastward for a couple of days. Warmer air should eventually spread eastward over the weekend or early the following week.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT): Recent moderate precipitation in the region has been beneficial for moistening soils in a lot of areas that needed it over the last week, but drought still covers large areas of the region and will not be wiped away so easily. Though some showers will move through on Friday, overall dryness that is forecast through next week won't be helpful for soils.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A system brought scattered showers over the last couple of days, but mainly to eastern areas. The front to that system will get stuck across the south on Thursday with continued showers before a larger storm system moves through Friday and Saturday. That could be more favorable for getting showers into southwestern areas, though not all areas will be hit with meaningful precipitation and it may include some snow. A couple of colder days that follow will bring frosty conditions to the southwestern Plains wheat areas and will not be favorable, either. Drought in Nebraska has been seeing some improvements lately and the southeast could see heavy, flooding rain. But if the weekend system disappoints, drought will continue to grow in the southwest as conditions will be much drier next week.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A system that moved through on Wednesday brought widespread precipitation and severe weather, as well as heavy rain. The front to the system will get stuck across the south on Thursday where heavy rain is likely to continue. And then another system will move through Friday through the weekend with more heavy rain and potential severe weather, especially across the south. Though the heavy rain is helping to ease drought in the north, historic flooding potential in the south will cause it to be too wet to do fieldwork and will take a long time to drain out. Though mostly drier weather next week should help flood waters recede, temperatures will be falling below normal, making that a slower prospect.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (CORN/SOYBEANS/COTTON/TRANSPORTATION): A front that moved in on Wednesday brought severe weather and heavy rain. The front will get stuck across the area for the rest of the week and heavy rain and some severe weather continue before another system sweeps through over the weekend with more widespread showers and thunderstorms. Heavy rain will lead to flooding and delays to fieldwork and planting. Some areas that planted early may need to replant. Drier conditions are forecast for next week but so are colder temperatures, which would slow down the retreat of floodwaters.

BRAZIL (CORN): A front is slowly moving north through the country this week, spreading scattered showers. Moderate to heavy rain has not been falling and the forecast has been poor for safrinha corn areas. Soil moisture continues to be below normal in a lot of the country and time is running out to build soil moisture before wet season rainfall shuts down this month. If the dry season comes too early, damage to pollinating and filling corn could result.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): Largely dry conditions this week should help with the maturing process for corn and soybeans as well as harvest. Colder air moving in for Friday and Saturday could produce some areas of frost across the south and damage a small portion of the immature crop. Precipitation will return across the north with a small system for late Sunday and Monday but the drier forecast overall is favorable for the end of the season.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT): Showers continue across the south for the rest of the week, with heavier rain in Spain. Northern areas are now starting to turn drier and could use some rain. A front pushing south through eastern areas this weekend could be somewhat beneficial there, but northwestern areas have not seen much precipitation over the last couple of months and the dryness may be more concerning. Next week looks to be a much drier period for the continent, though we could see that changing to a more active pattern next weekend.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT): Above-normal temperatures have been jarring wheat out of dormancy in largely poor condition with limited soil moisture in much of the region. Limited showers continue to move through into next week, but not enough to reverse the overall dry soils in a lot of areas. Some improvements may be noted, however. A burst of colder air will move through with a system this weekend into early next week and cause some frosts. Wheat is not very vulnerable to damage, however.

AUSTRALIA (COTTON/SORGHUM/WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Recent heavy rain in northeastern areas of the country have been unfavorable and potentially damaging for unharvested cotton and sorghum, but favorable for increasing soil moisture for the coming winter wheat and canola crops, which should start to be planted over the next couple of weeks. Western areas have been drier and are in need of rain before wheat planting can begin. Some favorable showers will move through this area through the weekend.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

East: Scattered showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast:

West: Scattered showers through Saturday, mostly south and very heavy. Mostly dry Sunday-Monday. Temperatures near normal Thursday-Friday, near to below normal Saturday, below normal Sunday-Monday.

East: Scattered showers through Monday, very heavy south. Temperatures above normal through Saturday, near to below normal Sunday, below normal Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Tuesday. Isolated showers Wednesday-Saturday.

Temperatures below normal Tuesday-Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday-Saturday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday-Monday. Temperatures near to below normal Thursday-Friday, below normal Saturday-Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Tuesday-Saturday. Temperatures near to below normal Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday, above normal Thursday-Saturday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers north Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Sunday. Isolated to scattered showers Monday. Temperatures near to above normal Thursday, near to below normal Friday, below normal Saturday-Monday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Monday. Temperatures near to above normal through Monday.

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