Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Several systems moving through the U.S. this week bringing areas of heavy rain and severe weather to the Delta and Midwest, but limited shower chances in the southwestern Plains, drier weather in Argentina, and a poor April forecast for Brazil are the weather factors driving the markets Wednesday.

MORE HEAVY RAIN, SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE MIDWEST

A system moving through the Midwest on Wednesday is bringing more widespread showers and thunderstorms, potential for severe weather and heavy rain. The front to the system will get stuck across the south on Thursday where heavy rain is likely to continue. And then another system will move through Friday into the weekend with more heavy rain and potential severe weather. Though the heavy rain is helping to ease drought in the north, historic flooding potential in the south will cause it to be too wet in the south to do fieldwork. Though drier weather next week should help flood waters recede, temperatures will be falling below normal, making that a slower prospect.

WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

A system is moving through the Central and Southern Plains on Wednesday with scattered showers and thunderstorms and severe weather. The front will get stuck across the south on Thursday with continued showers before a larger storm system moves through on Friday and Saturday. That could be more favorable for southwestern areas to see some precipitation, but may include snow. Drought in Nebraska has been seeing some improvements lately and the southeast could see heavy, flooding rain. But if the weekend system disappoints, drought will continue to grow in the southwest as conditions will be much drier next week.

HEAVY SNOW FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

A mix of rain and snow continues to fall across the Northern Plains on Wednesday, including areas of heavy snow across the eastern Dakotas. When combined with the past weekend's system, they are making for improving soil moisture across the south, but drought still covers large areas of the region and will not be wiped away so easily. Though some showers will move through on Friday, dryness that is forecast through next week won't be helpful either.

MORE HEAVY RAIN, SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE DELTA

A front will move through the Delta on Wednesday with more heavy rain and a high risk of severe weather. The front will get stuck across the area for the rest of the week and heavy rain is in the forecast before another system sweeps through over the weekend with more widespread showers and thunderstorms. Heavy rain will likely lead to possibly historic flooding and delays to fieldwork and planting. Drier conditions are forecast for next week, but so are colder temperatures, which would slow down the retreat of floodwaters.

RAIN MOVING THROUGH BRAZIL, BUT BELOW NORMAL IN APRIL

A front will slowly move north through Brazil this week, spreading scattered showers. Moderate to heavy rain is forecast for some safrinha corn areas, but not all, and soil moisture continues to be below normal in a lot of the country. Time is running out to build soil moisture before wet season rainfall shuts down this month. If the dry season comes too early, damage to pollinating and fill corn could result.

DRIER IN ARGENTINA, FAVORABLE FOR HARVEST

Largely dry conditions this week should help with the maturing process for corn and soybeans as well as harvest in Argentina. Colder air moving in later this week could produce some areas of frost across the south and damage a small portion of the immature crop. Precipitation will increase early next week across the north and everywhere later next week, which may delay harvest.

NORTHERN EUROPE GETTING TOO DRY

Showers continue across south Europe for the rest of the week, with heavier rain in Spain. Northern areas are now starting to turn too dry and could use some rain. A front pushing south through eastern areas this weekend could be somewhat beneficial there, but northwestern areas have not seen much precipitation over the last couple of months and the dryness may be more concerning there.

WAVES OF LIGHT SHOWERS FOR BLACK SEA REGION

Above-normal temperatures have been jarring wheat out of dormancy in largely poor condition with limited soil moisture in much of the Black Sea region. Limited showers continue to move through into next week, but not enough to reverse the overall dry soils in a lot of areas. Some improvements may be noted, however.

MORE HEAVY RAIN IN EASTERN AUSTRALIA

Cotton and sorghum are undergoing harvest, but heavy rain in east Australia has delayed harvest and may produce quality issues for both. However, the heavy rain is favorable for building soil moisture for winter wheat and canola that should start to be planted soon. More heavy rain will move through northeastern areas Wednesday, but then dry weather is forecast. Western areas have been drier and are in need of rain before wheat planting can begin. Some showers are forecast there later this week and weekend.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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