Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Several systems moving through the U.S. this week bringing areas of heavy rain to the Delta and Midwest, but limited shower chances in the southwestern Plains, the end of heavy rain in Argentina, and a poor April forecast for Brazil are the weather factors driving the markets Tuesday.

MORE HEAVY RAIN FOR THE MIDWEST

Widespread showers and thunderstorms moved through the Midwest over the weekend, including some severe weather and heavy rain. Northwestern areas saw improved soil moisture and drought reduction. A system moving through Tuesday and Wednesday should bring more widespread showers and thunderstorms, potential for severe weather, and heavy rain. The front to the system will get stuck across the south on Thursday where heavy rain is likely to continue. And then another system will move through Friday into the weekend with more heavy rain and potential severe weather. Though the heavy rain is helping to ease drought, it is getting too wet in some areas to do fieldwork, and temperatures will be falling below normal behind the weekend system for next week.

POTENTIAL SHOWERS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

A system is moving through the Central and Southern Plains Tuesday into Wednesday with scattered showers and thunderstorms, and potential for severe weather. The front will get stuck across the south on Thursday with continued showers before a larger storm system moves through Friday and Saturday. That could be more favorable for southwestern areas, getting some showers there. Drought in Nebraska is seeing some improvements lately and the southeast could see heavy, flooding rain. But if the weekend system disappoints, drought will continue to grow in the southwest as conditions will be much drier next week.

HEAVY SNOW FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

A mix of rain and snow will fall across the Northern Plains through Wednesday, including areas of heavy snow, mostly across the eastern Dakotas. When combined with the past weekend's system, the precipitation is making for improving soil moisture across the south, but drought still covers large areas of the region and will not be wiped away so easily. Though some showers will move through on Friday, dryness that is forecast through next week won't be helpful either.

MORE HEAVY RAIN FOR THE DELTA

A system brought scattered showers and thunderstorms, some severe weather, and heavy rain to the Delta over the weekend, which exited early Monday. Another system will move through on Wednesday with more heavy rain and severe weather potential. A front should linger across the area for the rest of the week and showers may continue before another system sweeps through over the weekend with more widespread showers and thunderstorms. Heavy rain could lead to localized flooding and delays to fieldwork and planting. Drier conditions are forecast for next week.

RAIN MOVING THROUGH BRAZIL, BUT BELOW NORMAL IN APRIL

A front coming up from Argentina will slowly move north through Brazil this week, spreading scattered showers. Moderate to heavy rain is forecast for some safrinha corn areas, but soil moisture continues to be below normal in a lot of the country. Time is running out to build soil moisture before wet season rainfall shuts down this month. If it is too early, damage to pollinating and fill corn could result.

DRIER IN ARGENTINA

A front brought scattered showers through Argentina over the weekend, being favorable for immature corn and soybeans. However, that is an increasingly smaller percentage of the crop as it continues to head into maturity. Largely dry conditions this week should help with the maturing process as well as fieldwork. Colder air moving in later this week could produce some areas of frost across the south.

SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS SOUTHERN EUROPE

Showers continued across southern Europe over the weekend while some northern areas also saw light showers moving through with a couple of fronts. Showers will linger across the south for most of the week, though northern areas are now starting to turn drier and could use some rain. A front pushing south through eastern areas this weekend could be somewhat beneficial there, but northwestern areas have not seen much precipitation over the last couple of months.

WAVES OF LIGHT SHOWERS FOR BLACK SEA REGION

Above-normal temperatures continue to awaken wheat in largely poor condition with limited soil moisture in much of the Black Sea region. Limited showers continue to move through, but not enough to reverse the overall dry soils in a lot of areas. Some improvements may be noted, however.

MORE HEAVY RAIN IN EASTERN AUSTRALIA

Cotton and sorghum are maturing and undergoing harvest, but heavy rain in eastern Australia has delayed harvest and may produce quality issues for both. However, the heavy rain is favorable for building soil moisture for wheat and canola that should start to be planted in April. More heavy rain will move through northeastern areas Tuesday and Wednesday. Western areas have been drier and are in need of rain before wheat planting can begin. Some minor showers are forecast there later this week and weekend.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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