Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A big system moving through the U.S. this weekend and more for next week will produce heavy rain in the Delta and Midwest, but continued dryness in the southwestern Plains, the end of heavy rain in Argentina and lower soil moisture in Brazil are the weather factors driving the markets Friday.

HEAVY RAIN FORECAST FOR THE MIDWEST

Streaks of showers continue in the Midwest on Friday and a warmup is forecast ahead of another big storm system moving through this weekend with widespread showers and thunderstorms with potential for some northern snow. The weather pattern will stay active with two more storms for next week with more rounds of showers, thunderstorms and potential snow. This may lead to a lot of precipitation in some areas and places being too wet to start on early fieldwork, but it may also help with the drought situation.

WARM WITH LIMITED SHOWERS FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Some streaks of light showers have moved through the Central and Southern Plains, but most areas have been warm and dry this week, an unfavorable combination for winter wheat. A system will move across the region through the weekend, with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Another storm will likely roll through in the middle of next week with another over the weekend, but the forecast favors northern and eastern areas over the southwestern Plains, unfavorable for wheat.

LIMITED PRECIPITATION IN NORTHERN PLAINS, MORE POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK

Isolated showers continue to fall across the northern Plains on Friday. Saturday will be the best day for heavier precipitation, which will occur across the south. Two more storm systems should move through next week and weekend, bringing more precipitation chances. However, drought is very much a concern heading into the season, even with the precipitation being forecast.

HEAVY RAIN FORECAST FOR THE DELTA

Though some streaks of rain have been passing through the Delta region this week, warmer and drier conditions should have been beneficial for drying out soils and doing some early fieldwork. A system will move across the region this weekend with a couple of waves of showers and thunderstorms, including potential for severe weather and more heavy rain, and more is forecast for next week that could slow progress down.

SOIL MOISTURE STILL LOW FOR SAFRINHA CORN IN BRAZIL

A stalled front across central Brazil has been producing scattered showers since last week, beneficial for the area that has seen very little rainfall previously. The front should stick around into next week with continued showers, though they will be light. Southern areas are getting a boost from some fronts moving through Argentina, which continues into next week. Soil moisture in the country is generally below normal outside of Mato Grosso, which is not very favorable for developing safrinha corn. This rain should help, but amounts are still below normal in most places.

LAST WAVE OF RAIN MOVING THROUGH ARGENTINA THIS WEEKEND

Several impulses have moved through Argentina this week, producing beneficial showers for immature corn and soybeans. A front will move through this weekend and wipe out the showers, leaving behind mostly dry conditions for next week. More of each crop is heading into maturity, so the amount of benefit will continue to be lower as time passes. Double-crop soybeans will benefit the most from this rainfall, a smaller percentage of the overall soybean crop. The rain may have caused delays to the corn harvest.

SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN EUROPE

Showers have been consistent across southern Europe for most of the week, being largely beneficial for winter wheat there. Two fronts will move through over the weekend with showers over the north, and lingering showers in the east next week, but drier conditions farther west. Overall conditions for winter wheat are favorable, though the northeast could use more rain. Early fieldwork for corn and other spring-sown crops in the northwest should see beneficial conditions.

BLACK SEA REGION MAY SEE INCREASED RAINFALL NEXT WEEK

Above-normal temperatures continue to awaken wheat in largely poor condition with limited soil moisture in much of the Black Sea region. An active pattern in Europe brought some rain through the region this week, but only in patchy locations that have favored the northwest. Eastern Ukraine and southwestern Russia are largely too dry and in need of rainfall. Some streaks of showers may begin in these areas this weekend and pulses of showers may move through next week, which would be helpful.

HEAVY RAIN IN EASTERN AUSTRALIA

Cotton and sorghum are maturing and undergoing harvest, but heavy rain has been moving over Queensland most of this week and got into northern New South Wales as well. That system finally moves off the coast this weekend. The rain has been too heavy, which will delay cotton and sorghum harvest and may produce quality issues for both. However, it will be favorable for building soil moisture for wheat and canola that should start to be planted next month. The remnants of Tropical Cyclone 28 will move through in the middle of next week with more heavy rain potential as well. Western areas are forecast to stay largely drier through next week.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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