Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- More active weather for the U.S. starting on Friday with a multipiece storm system, but continued dryness in the southwestern Plains, increased rain in Argentina but a lower forecast in Brazil, and potential rainfall for the Black Sea region are the weather factors driving the markets Thursday.

SHOWERS INCREASING AHEAD OF BIG SYSTEM IN THE MIDWEST

Streaks of showers continue to increase for the next couple of days in the Midwest. A warmup is forecast on Friday ahead of another big storm system moving through this weekend with widespread showers, thunderstorms and potential for some northern snow. The weather pattern should stay active next week with more rounds of showers, thunderstorms and snow. This may lead to a lot of precipitation in some areas and places being too wet to start on early fieldwork, but it may also help with the drought situation.

WARM WITH LIMITED SHOWERS FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Some streaks of light showers will continue to move through the Central and Southern Plains Thursday and Friday, but most areas in the region have been warm and dry this week, an unfavorable combination for winter wheat. However, a system will move through this weekend with potential for widespread showers and thunderstorms, but probably miss southwestern wheat areas. Another storm will likely roll through in the middle of next week, but again the forecast is to miss the southwest.

LIMITED PRECIPITATION IN NORTHERN PLAINS, MORE POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK

Isolated showers continue to fall in the Northern Plains this week as disturbances move through. Saturday may be the best day for heavier precipitation, which would occur across the south. That system will likely set up a more active pattern through the region going into April, bringing some better precipitation chances. Drought is very much a concern heading into the season, even with the precipitation being forecast.

HEAVY RAIN FORECAST FOR THE DELTA AGAIN

Though some streaks of rain have been passing through the Delta this week, warmer and drier conditions should have been beneficial for drying out soils and doing some early fieldwork. A system will move through Friday through this weekend with more showers and thunderstorms, including potential for severe weather and more heavy rain that could slow progress down.

FORECAST TURNS LIGHTER IN BRAZIL FOR SAFRINHA CORN

A stalled front across central Brazil has been producing scattered showers, beneficial for the area that has seen very little rainfall previously. The front should stick around into next week with continued showers, though they may be light. Southern areas may get a boost from some fronts moving through Argentina, though heavy rain is not forecast, and models have recently dropped the rainfall amounts through next week. Soil moisture in the country is generally below normal outside of Mato Grosso, which is not very favorable for developing safrinha corn.

LAST WAVE OF RAIN MOVING THROUGH ARGENTINA THIS WEEKEND

Several impulses continue to move through Argentina this week, producing beneficial showers for immature corn and soybeans. A front will move through this weekend and wipe out the showers, leaving behind dry conditions for next week. More of each crop is heading into maturity, so the amount of benefit will continue to be lower as time passes. Double-crop soybeans will benefit the most from this rainfall, a smaller percentage of the overall soybean crop. The rain may cause delays to the corn harvest.

SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN EUROPE

Showers continue across southern Europe for the rest of the week, being largely beneficial for winter wheat there. Some fronts may move through over the weekend with showers over the north, with showers lingering in the east next week, but drier conditions farther west. Overall conditions for winter wheat are favorable, though the northeast could use more rain. Early fieldwork for corn and other spring-sown crops in the northwest should see beneficial conditions.

BLACK SEA REGION MAY SEE INCREASED RAINFALL NEXT WEEK

Above-normal temperatures continue to awaken wheat in largely poor condition with limited soil moisture in much of the Black Sea region. An active pattern in Europe is bringing some rain through the region this week, but only in patchy locations that have favored the northwest. Eastern Ukraine and southwestern Russia are largely too dry and in need of rainfall. Some streaks of showers may begin this weekend, and pulses of showers may move through next week, which would be helpful.

HEAVY RAIN IN EASTERN AUSTRALIA

Cotton and sorghum are maturing and undergoing harvest, hoping for drier weather across eastern Australia. However, winter wheat and canola planting will begin in a few weeks and will need more precipitation to build soil moisture. A leftover front and tropical feature will continue rain over Queensland, getting into northern New South Wales for a couple of days too before moving off the coast this weekend. The rain has been and should continue to be heavy, which will delay cotton and sorghum harvest and may produce quality issues for both. However, it will be favorable for building soil moisture for wheat and canola. Western areas are forecast to stay unfavorably drier into next week.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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