Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- More active weather for the U.S. starting on Friday, but continued dryness in the southwestern Plains, increased rain in South America, and potential rainfall for the Black Sea region are the weather factors driving the markets Wednesday.

SHOWERS INCREASING AHEAD OF BIG SYSTEM IN THE MIDWEST

Streaks of showers will continue in the Midwest for the rest of the week. A warmup is forecast on Friday ahead of another big storm system moving through this weekend with widespread showers, thunderstorms and potential for some northern snow. The weather pattern may stay active next week with more rounds of showers, thunderstorms and snow. If it does, some areas may be a bit too wet to start on early fieldwork, but it may also help with the drought situation.

WARM WITH LIMITED SHOWERS FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Some streaks of light showers may move through the Central and Southern Plains, but most areas continue to be warm and dry this week, an unfavorable combination for winter wheat. However, a system will move through Friday into the weekend, with potential for widespread showers and thunderstorms. The weather pattern may be more active next week, but the forecast favors northern areas over the southwestern Plains, unfavorable for wheat.

LIMITED PRECIPITATION IN NORTHERN PLAINS, MORE POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK

Isolated showers continue to fall in the Northern Plains this week as disturbances move through. Drought is very much a concern heading into the season and the recent rain isn't enough to turn the momentum around. However, a larger system this weekend could clip southern areas with decent precipitation will likely set up a more active pattern through the region going into April, bringing some better precipitation chances.

LIMITED SHOWERS IN THE DELTA

Though some streaks of rain have been passing through the Delta this week, warmer and drier conditions should have been beneficial for drying out soils and doing some early fieldwork. A system will move through Friday into this weekend with more showers and thunderstorms, including potential for severe weather and more heavy rain that could slow progress down.

RAIN INCREASING IN BRAZIL, SOIL MOISTURE BELOW NORMAL

A stalled front across central Brazil has been producing scattered showers, beneficial for the area that has seen very little rainfall previously. The front should stick around into next week with continued showers, though they may be light. Southern areas should get a boost from some fronts moving through Argentina this week, though heavy rain is not forecast. Soil moisture in the country is generally below normal outside of Mato Grosso, which is not very favorable for developing safrinha corn. This rain should help, but amounts are still below normal in most places.

WAVES OF RAIN MOVING THROUGH ARGENTINA

Several impulses continue to move through Argentina this week, producing beneficial showers for immature corn and soybeans. A front will move through this weekend and wipe out the showers, leaving behind dry conditions next week. More of each crop is heading into maturity, so the amount of benefit will continue to be lower as time passes. Double-crop soybeans will benefit the most from this rainfall, a smaller percentage of the overall soybean crop. The rain may cause delays to the corn harvest.

SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN EUROPE

Showers continue across southern Europe for the rest of the week, being largely beneficial for winter wheat there. Some fronts may move through over the weekend with showers over the north, with showers lingering in the east next week, but drier conditions are expected farther west. Overall conditions for winter wheat are favorable, though the northeast could use more rain. Early fieldwork for corn and other spring-sown crops in the northwest should see beneficial conditions.

STREAKS OF PRECIPITATION NOT GOOD ENOUGH FOR BLACK SEA REGION

Above-normal temperatures continue to awaken wheat in largely poor condition with limited soil moisture in much of the Black Sea region. An active pattern in Europe is bringing some rain through the region this week, but only in patchy locations that should target the northwest more than others. Eastern Ukraine and southwestern Russia are largely too dry and in need of rainfall. Some streaks of showers may begin this weekend, and pulses of showers may move through next week, which would be helpful.

HEAVY RAIN IN EASTERN AUSTRALIA

Cotton and sorghum are maturing and undergoing harvest, hoping for drier weather across eastern Australia. However, winter wheat and canola planting will begin in a few weeks and will need more precipitation to build soil moisture. A leftover front and tropical feature will continue rain over Queensland most of this week, getting into northern New South Wales by the end of the week. The rain has been heavy, which will delay cotton and sorghum harvest and may produce quality issues for both. However, it will be favorable for building soil moisture for wheat and canola. Western areas are forecast to stay unfavorably drier into next week.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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