DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the West and a trough in the East. The ridge will take its time moving eastward but will do so by the end of the week. That will allow another trough to move its way into the West, which will send pieces of energy eastward through next week.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

The generally active pattern should continue for early April, but to what degree is somewhat uncertain.

The U.S. and European models are now at odds with each other over how far east the main trough will go next week. I will use a blend but favor the GFS, which has been more consistent.

A bigger system will move through over the weekend with widespread precipitation. A couple of impulses will move through next week as well, spreading showers through the country. Temperatures will be somewhat variable with the systems moving through, though areas across the south will stay higher than normal throughout the weekend and next week.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH MON...100 AT NORTH SHORE, CA AND INDIO, CA

LOW MON...2 BELOW ZERO AT ESCOURT STATION, ME

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT MONDAY...MOBILE, AL 1.13 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6- TO 10-DAY PERIOD:

There is a ridge in the West and a trough in the East. The ridge will take its time moving eastward but will do so by the end of the week. That will allow another trough to move its way into the West, which will send pieces of energy eastward through next week.

The U.S. and European models are now at odds with each other over how far east the main trough will go next week. I will use a blend but favor the GFS, which has been more consistent.

A bigger system will move through over the weekend with widespread precipitation. A couple of impulses will move through next week as well, spreading showers through the country. Temperatures will be somewhat variable with the systems moving through, though areas across the south will stay higher than normal throughout the weekend and next week.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT): Isolated showers will fall this week as a couple of disturbances move through. Drought is very much a concern heading into the season and the recent rain isn't enough to turn the momentum around. However, a larger system this weekend could set up a more active pattern through the region going into April which may bring some better precipitation chances.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT): Some streaks of light showers may move through, but most areas will be warm and dry this week, an unfavorable combination for winter wheat. However, a system will move through Friday through the weekend, with potential for widespread showers and thunderstorms.

The weather pattern may be more active next week, but the forecast favors northern areas over the southwestern Plains.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Streaks of showers will linger for much of the week, though it does appear to be drier for much of the region.

A warmup is forecast late week ahead of another big storm system moving through this weekend with widespread showers and thunderstorms and potential for some northern snow again. The weather pattern may stay active next week with more rounds of showers and thunderstorms. If it does, some areas my be a bit too wet to start on early fieldwork.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (CORN/SOYBEANS/COTTON/TRANSPORTATION): A system moved through late Sunday into early Monday which included some severe weather and heavy rainfall. Though some streaks of rain may pass through this week, warmer and drier conditions should be beneficial for drying out soils and doing some early fieldwork. A system will move through this weekend with more showers and thunderstorms.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS): A stalled front across central Brazil has been producing scattered showers, beneficial for the area that has seen very little rainfall previously. The front should stick around most of the week with continued showers, though they may continue to be light. Southern areas may get a boost from some fronts moving through Argentina this week, though heavy rain is not forecast. Soil moisture in the country is generally below normal outside of Mato Grosso, which is not very favorable for developing safrinha corn. This rain should help, but amounts are still below normal in most places.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): A front moved into the country over the weekend and several impulses will move through the country this week and produce beneficial showers for immature corn and soybeans. More of each crop is heading into maturity, so the amount of benefit will continue to be lower as time passes.

Double-crop soybeans will benefit the most from this rainfall. The rain may cause delays to the corn harvest.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT): A system moved into the continent late last week and spread showers eastward over the weekend. That process continues with several impulses working through the south this week. Some fronts may move through over the weekend with showers over the north. Overall conditions for winter wheat are favorable, though the northeast could use more rain now.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT): Above-normal temperatures continue to awaken wheat in largely poor condition with limited soil moisture. An active pattern in Europe will bring some rain through the region this week, but only in patchy locations that should target the northwest more than any others. Eastern Ukraine and southwestern Russia are largely too dry and in need of rainfall.

AUSTRALIA (COTTON/SORGHUM): Cotton and sorghum are maturing and undergoing harvest, hoping for drier weather across the east. However, winter wheat and canola planting will begin in a few weeks and will need more precipitation to build soil moisture. A leftover front and tropical feature will continue rain over Queensland most of this week, getting into northern New South Wales by the end of the week. The rain is forecast to be heavy, which will delay cotton and sorghum harvest and may produce quality issues for both. However, it will be favorable for building soil moisture for wheat and canola. Western areas are forecast to stay unfavorably drier this week.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Isolated showers. Temperatures near normal.

East: Isolated showers. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated showers through Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday, above normal Wednesday, well above normal Thursday-Saturday.

East: Isolated showers through Friday. Scattered showers Saturday. Temperatures near to below normal through Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday, well above normal Friday-Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Sunday-Thursday.

Temperatures above normal Sunday, near to below normal Monday-Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday-Thursday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers through Saturday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Scattered showers Sunday. Mostly dry Monday. Isolated showers Tuesday-Thursday. Temperatures above to well above normal Saturday, near to above normal Sunday-Monday, above normal Tuesday-Thursday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal through Saturday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal through Saturday.

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