Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Several storms moving through the U.S. but not much precipitation for hard red winter wheat areas, mixed conditions in South America, and warmth and dryness in the Black Sea region are the weather factors driving the markets Thursday.

STORM LEAVING MIDWEST, MORE LINING UP

A big system continues in the eastern Midwest on Thursday after putting down a blizzard in the northwest on Wednesday. The precipitation is favorable for drought areas, but some areas of heavy rain are soaking soils ahead of fieldwork and planting for those in the east. Several systems will move through this weekend into next week with some additional showers.

BLIZZARD PUT DOWN HEAVY SNOW IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

A strong storm brought a band of moderate to heavy snow and some thunderstorms to the Central Plains on Wednesday. That should help with drought where the snow fell, but it remains an issue across the north while southern areas are seeing drought building from a lack of precipitation and strong winds. A couple of smaller systems with very limited precipitation are forecast for Friday into early next week, but will produce very little for the region. Southwestern wheat areas are not forecast to see much of any precipitation until maybe next weekend. With the limited precipitation and occasional bursts of strong winds, conditions for greening winter wheat are not currently favorable.

LIMITED PRECIPITATION IN NORTHERN PLAINS, DROUGHT CONTINUES

A couple of smaller systems will move through the Northern Plains Friday into next week, but with limited showers. Drought continues to be a big concern for the region heading into spring and the active weather pattern has yet to bring through the large precipitation events that are needed to reduce it.

WET SOILS IN THE DELTA GETTING MORE RAIN THIS WEEKEND

Water levels on the Mississippi River are rising again, though flooding is not expected as the rivers to the east are falling again. Soils are likely too wet to work for many areas this week, though. A system will move through on Sunday with another round of heavy thunderstorms and some smaller systems could bring additional rainfall next week to keep soil moisture high.

FRONT STALLED IN CENTRAL BRAZIL

A stalled front across central Brazil will remain somewhat stationary, producing rainfall into next week. While some heavier rain is forecast to fall, models have been over-predicting rainfall recently. Despite this, some needed rain looks to fall in some very dry areas in the east-central safrinha corn areas. West-central areas continue to see beneficial rainfall, but the south is now drier. A system coming up from Argentina may produce showers this weekend into next week, however.

HEAVY RAIN COMING FOR ARGENTINA THIS WEEKEND, EARLY NEXT WEEK

Dry conditions have been in place across Argentina for most of the last two weeks, though a front will move through this weekend into early next week with widespread showers and thunderstorms and some areas of heavy rain. Filling corn and soybeans have had some drier conditions recently and need more rain so this should be somewhat beneficial. It could delay the ongoing harvest, though.

ANOTHER ACTIVE PERIOD FOR EUROPE

Spain has been seeing beneficial rainfall this week, but most of Europe has been dry. However, another system moves into the west on Friday and is forecast to send several pieces of energy through the continent over the weekend and next week with beneficial widespread rainfall. Above-normal temperatures should coax more wheat across the north out of dormancy while causing more rapid growth across the south.

STREAKS OF PRECIPITATION NOT GOOD ENOUGH FOR BLACK SEA REGION

Above-normal temperatures continue to awaken wheat in largely poor condition with limited soil moisture in the Black Sea region. An active pattern in Europe will bring through some rain starting this weekend and continue through next week, but only in patchy locations that should target the northwest more than any other spots.

SOME SHOWERS FOR EASTERN AUSTRALIA

Cotton and sorghum are maturing and undergoing harvest in eastern Australia, hoping for drier weather across the east. However, winter wheat and canola planting will begin in about a month and will need more precipitation to build soil moisture. A front is moving through with scattered showers across the southeast Thursday into Friday. Models have been more generous with rainfall continuing into eastern areas over the weekend and into next week, which may delay harvest but build soil moisture.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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