Ag Weather Forum

Winter wheat in the Southern Plains is dealing with stressful conditions right as the crop comes out of dormancy. At the end of the 2024 fall season, wheat conditions in the Southern Plains states of Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas were looking favorable, with 55% of the Kansas crop, 48% of the Oklahoma crop and 52% of the Texas crop rated either good or excellent.

The situation is not as robust now. Crop progress and ratings reports from the three states for the week ended Sunday, March 16, 2025, show the Kansas wheat crop rated 48% good to excellent, Oklahoma's wheat rated 46% good to excellent and the Texas wheat crop rated just 28% good to excellent. What's also concerning is that in the three states, Kansas has 17% of its wheat crop now rated poor to very poor, Oklahoma 29% poor to very poor and Texas wheat showing 39% poor to very poor. Those ratings are all below a year ago, when the good to excellent ratings totals were at 55% in Kansas, 46% in Texas and 61% in Oklahoma.

Sagging crop ratings relate directly to a lack of precipitation during late winter into early spring. The past 30 days have been mainly dry across the U.S. Plains, with measured precipitation largely no more than 20% of normal. That lack of moisture has developed right at the time when the winter wheat crop is coming out of dormancy ahead of its spring growth and yield-developing stages.

High winds over the dry Plains have added to crop stress. Last week's intense storm system brought violent winds to the Southern Plains with wind velocity surpassing 80 mph in Texas on Friday, March 14. The high winds draw out even more moisture from topsoil, which already had far less than its average amount.

The atmospheric pattern is not favoring the winter wheat growth scenario either due to a lack of moisture inflow from the large, warm bodies of water off the southern U.S. and Mexico coasts. "The lack of moisture return from the Gulf is pretty typical when we're in such a progressive pattern," said DTN Ag Meteorologist John Baranick.

Forecasts do not offer much when it comes to moisture for winter wheat, either. Another intense storm system this week brings light snow, but actual precipitation is likely to be no more than around one-quarter of an inch. And, again, strong winds are featured across the entire central U.S.

This stressful scenario now moves into an uncomfortable decision time for Southern Plains wheat growers -- whether to abandon acreage or not. That's a question that didn't have to be dealt with last year, but it's there now -- a constant just like the strong mid-March winds.

More details on the prospects for this week's storm system are available here: https://www.dtnpf.com/…

Bryce Anderson can be reached at bryce.anderson@dtn.com

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