Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Very warm temperatures and a big spring storm system for the U.S., mixed conditions in South America, and warmth and dryness in the Black Sea region are the weather factors driving the markets Thursday.

VERY WARM IN THE MIDWEST, BIG STORM COMING

Very warm temperatures are in place across the Midwest this week. Drought continues to have a grip on much of the region. But a massive storm system will move through Friday and Saturday, producing widespread showers and thunderstorms, some severe weather, northwestern snow, and strong winds that could create blizzard conditions. Additional systems are expected to move through behind it next week, which will probably include a band of heavy snow during the middle of next week. The forecast precipitation may help with the drought situation in some areas.

BOMB CYCLONE MOVING INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY

Drought still covers a large portion of the Central and Southern Plains, a risk for winter wheat. A massive storm system will move into the region on Friday and is likely to produce precipitation. However, areas to the north and east are more likely to receive substantial amounts while this region will see strong winds and wind damage from the storm instead. An overall lack of precipitation, above-normal temperatures, and strong winds will lead to lowering soil moisture for greening winter wheat and forages. There may be a better chance for precipitation in needed areas in the middle of next week.

VERY WARM IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS, SNOW TO END THE WEEK

It continues to be quiet and warm in the Northern Plains, but a system that moves through on Friday is forecast to bring scattered showers and snow, and the snow may be heavy in the eastern Dakotas. Strong winds could create blizzard conditions. With the drought continuing to be an issue heading into spring with no snowpack, this storm would be helpful for building up some soil moisture. Much more is needed, however. Southeastern areas will get a shot at more precipitation from another big storm in the middle of next week.

SOIL MOISTURE IN DELTA REGION VERY HIGH

Water levels continue to fall along the Mississippi and most of the tributaries and some areas are drying out enough for early planting in the Delta. A small system is bringing some showers through a small area early Thursday, but a massive storm system moving through the country is likely to produce lines and clusters of thunderstorms for Friday and Saturday, which may be severe. Another system in the middle of next week could also add water to the region. If areas get enough rain, it could slow down planting.

FRONT STALLED IN SOUTH-CENTRAL BRAZIL

A front stays stalled across south-central Brazil and will only drift slightly northward over the next couple days. Scattered showers that are occurring are much-needed, but east-central Brazil is not forecast to see much rainfall for the next week and safrinha corn is suffering in hot and dry conditions there. The southern state of Rio Grande do Sul, which is a big producer of full-season corn and soybeans, is filling its crops with poor conditions. West-central states continue to see scattered wet-season showers and overall fair conditions.

GETTING DRIER IN ARGENTINA

A front moved through Argentina with limited showers across central areas earlier this week, but overall dry conditions are expected for the next week. Temperatures are milder the next couple of days, but could be stressful for areas that have been drier next week, particularly across the north. Southern and central areas can handle some drier conditions after the recent heavy rainfall.

SEVERAL SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH EUROPE

A series of systems continues to move across the southern end of Europe through this weekend, producing scattered showers. Northwestern areas that do not need much rain right now are staying drier. Recent warm temperatures have allowed more of the wheat crop to break dormancy, doing so in fairly good condition in most areas. Temperatures rise again next week in overall drier conditions. We will see storms moving back into western areas by late next week, though. Spain should continue to see beneficial rainfall as well.

STREAKS OF PRECIPITATION IN THE BLACK SEA REGION

Temperatures continue to be very warm in the Black Sea region, encouraging green-up for winter wheat. However, soils are very dry, and wheat will find overall poor conditions. An active pattern over Europe will only produce streaks of precipitation across Ukraine and southwestern Russia going into next week. Northern sections stand to benefit the most and some areas are likely to remain dry across the south, continuing the poor weather conditions.

EASTERN AUSTRALIA STILL RECOVERING FROM TROPICAL CYCLONE ALFRED

Eastern Australia continues to recover from Tropical Cyclone Alfred and its flooding rain around Brisbane. Cotton and sorghum areas farther inland saw scattered showers and areas of heavy rainfall earlier this week, and could have seen enough rain to drop quality and push back harvest. Drier conditions going into next week should be more favorable for recovery.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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