DTN Ag Weather Brief
DTN Ag Weather Brief
There is a ridge across the Eastern U.S. with a trough in the Southeast, another in Canada, and a big one in the West. The pattern remains progressive and the western trough will produce a major spring storm over the next couple of days.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:The pattern remains rather progressive with troughs and ridges continually pushing through North America through the end of March. Each trough will create a storm system.
The U.S. and European models are fairly similar, though the GFS is weaker with a system next week. I will use a blend but favor the European.
After a big system leaves this weekend, another big system is forecast to move through the country during the middle of next week and should produce more showers. This one is more likely to produce heavier snow for a larger area from the Central Plains to the Midwest. Temperatures will generally be very warm early next week ahead of the system, but fall significantly behind it. Those that see snow will likely be cooler than the rest, but warm temperatures are forecast to fill back in behind the system at the end of next week.
NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:HIGH WED...104 AT FAITH RANCH, TX
LOW WED...8 BELOW ZERO AT PETER SINKS, UT
24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CST WEDNESDAY...SAN FRANCISCO, CA 0.45 INCHES
US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6- TO 10-DAY PERIOD:There is a ridge across the Eastern U.S. with a trough in the Southeast, another in Canada, and a big one in the West. The pattern remains rather progressive with troughs and ridges continually pushing through North America through the end of March. Each trough will create a storm system and the one in the West will produce a major storm over the next few days.
The U.S. and European models are fairly similar, though the GFS is weaker with a system next week. I will use a blend but favor the European.
After a big system leaves this weekend, another big system is forecast to move through the country during the middle of next week and should produce more showers. This one is more likely to produce heavier snow for a larger area from the Central Plains to the Midwest. Temperatures will generally be very warm early next week ahead of the system, but fall significantly behind it. Those that see snow will likely be cooler than the rest, but warm temperatures are forecast to fill back in behind the system at the end of next week.
MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT): It continues to be quiet and warm, but a system that moves through on Friday is forecast to bring scattered showers and snow, and the snow may be heavy in the eastern Dakotas. Strong winds could create blizzard conditions. With the drought continuing to be an issue heading into spring with no snowpack, this storm would be helpful for building up some soil moisture. Much more is needed, however. Southeastern areas will get a shot at more precipitation from another big storm in the middle of next week.
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT): Drought still covers a large portion of the region. A massive storm system will move into the region on Friday and is likely to produce precipitation. However, areas to the north and east are more likely to receive substantial amounts while this region will see strong winds and wind damage from the storm instead. An overall lack of precipitation, above-normal temperatures, and strong winds will lead to lowering soil moisture for greening winter wheat and forages. There may be a better chance for precipitation in needed areas in the middle of next week.
MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT): Very warm temperatures are in place this week. Drought continues to have a grip on much of the region. But a massive storm system will move through Friday and Saturday, producing widespread showers and thunderstorms, some severe weather, northwestern snow, and strong winds that could create blizzard conditions. Additional systems are expected to move through behind it next week, which will probably include a band of heavy snow during the middle of next week. The forecast precipitation may help with the drought situation in some areas.
DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (CORN/SOYBEANS/COTTON/TRANSPORTATION): Water levels continue to fall along the Mississippi and most of the tributaries and some areas are drying out enough for early planting. A small system is bringing some showers through a small area early Thursday, but a massive storm system moving through the country is likely to produce lines and clusters of thunderstorms for Friday and Saturday, which may be severe. Another system in the middle of next week could also add water to the region. If areas get enough rain, it could slow down planting.
BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS): A front stays stalled across the south-central and will only drift slightly northward over the next couple days. Scattered showers that are occurring are much-needed, but east-central Brazil is not forecast to see much rainfall for the next week and safrinha corn is suffering in hot and dry conditions there. The southern state of Rio Grande do Sul, which is a big producer of full-season corn and soybeans, is filling its crops with poor conditions. West-central states continue to see scattered wet-season showers and overall fair conditions.
ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): A front moved through with limited showers across central areas earlier this week, but overall dry conditions are expected for the next week. Temperatures are milder the next couple of days, but could be stressful for areas that have been drier next week, particularly across the north. Southern and central areas can handle some drier conditions after the recent heavy rainfall.
EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT): A series of systems continues to move across the southern end of the continent through this weekend, producing scattered showers. Northwestern areas that do not need much rain right now are staying drier. Recent warm temperatures have allowed more of the wheat crop to break dormancy, doing so in fairly good condition in most areas. Temperatures rise again next week in overall drier conditions. We will see storms moving back into western areas by late next week, though. Spain should continue to see beneficial rainfall as well.
BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT): Temperatures continue to be very warm, encouraging green-up for winter wheat. However, soils are very dry and wheat will find overall poor conditions. An active pattern over Europe will only produce streaks of precipitation across Ukraine and southwestern Russia going into next week. Northern sections stand to benefit the most and some areas are likely to remain dry across the south, continuing the poor weather conditions.
AUSTRALIA (COTTON/SORGHUM): Eastern areas continue to recover from Tropical Cyclone Alfred and its flooding rain around Brisbane. Cotton and sorghum areas farther inland saw scattered showers and areas of heavy rainfall earlier this week, and could have seen enough rain to drop quality and push back harvest.
Drier conditions going into next week should be more favorable for recovery.
EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)
Summary:
West: Mostly dry. Temperatures well above normal.
East: Mostly dry. Temperatures well above normal.
Forecast:
West: Mostly dry Thursday. Scattered showers Friday-Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday-Monday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Saturday, near to below normal Sunday, above to well above normal Monday.
East: Mostly dry Thursday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms Friday night-Sunday. Mostly dry Monday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Saturday, near to above normal Sunday-Monday.
6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Tuesday. Scattered showers Wednesday-Saturday.
Temperatures above to well above normal Tuesday-Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday-Friday, near to above normal Saturday.
Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)
Summary: Isolated showers southeast. Temperatures above to well above normal.
Forecast: Mostly dry Thursday. Isolated to scattered showers Friday. Mostly dry Saturday-Monday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Friday, near to below normal Saturday, near to above normal Sunday, above to well above normal Monday.
6- to 10-day outlook: Scattered showers Tuesday night-Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Friday. Isolated showers Saturday. Temperatures above to well above normal Tuesday, falling Wednesday, below normal Thursday, near normal Friday, above normal Saturday.
Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...
Summary: Isolated showers north. Temperatures near normal.
Forecast: Scattered showers north through Monday. Temperatures near to below normal through Saturday, near to above normal Sunday-Monday.
Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...
Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.
Forecast: Scattered showers through Monday. Temperatures near to above normal through Monday.
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