Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Very warm temperatures and a big spring storm system for the U.S. later this week, mixed conditions in South America, and warmth and dryness in the Black Sea region are the weather factors driving the markets Wednesday.

VERY WARM IN THE MIDWEST, BIG STORM COMING LATE WEEK

Very warm temperatures are in place across the Midwest this week. Drought continues to have a grip on much of the region. But a massive storm system is forecast to move through Friday and Saturday, producing widespread showers and thunderstorms, some severe weather, northwestern snow, and strong winds that could create blizzard conditions. Additional systems are expected to move through behind it next week, which will probably include a band of heavy snow during the middle of next week. The forecast precipitation may help with the drought situation.

BOMB CYCLONE EYEING CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS AFTER WARM WEEK

Drought still covers a large portion of the Central and Southern Plains. Much of this week is warm and dry, with very limited showers in the southeast on Wednesday. A massive storm system is forecast to move into the region on Friday and is likely to produce precipitation. However, areas to the north and east are more likely to receive substantial amounts while southwestern areas will see strong winds and wind damage from the storm instead. An overall lack of precipitation, above-normal temperatures and strong winds will lead to lowering soil moisture for greening winter wheat and forages. There may be a better chance for precipitation in needed areas in the middle of next week.

VERY WARM IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS, SNOW TO END THE WEEK

It continues to be quiet and warm in the Northern Plains, but a system that moves through on Friday is forecast to bring scattered showers and snow, and the snow may be heavy in the eastern Dakotas. Strong winds could create blizzard conditions. With the drought continuing to be an issue heading into spring with no snowpack, this storm would be helpful for building up some soil moisture. Much more is needed, however. Southeastern areas will get a shot at more precipitation from another big storm in the middle of next week.

SOIL MOISTURE IN DELTA REGION VERY HIGH

Water levels continue to fall along the Mississippi and most of the tributaries, which should help flood waters recede and soils to dry out somewhat. A small system will move through on Wednesday night with some showers, but a massive storm system moving through the country is likely to produce lines and clusters of thunderstorms for Friday and Saturday, which may be more significant and include severe weather. Another system in the middle of next week could also add water to the region, all of which may slow down early planting.

FRONT STALLED IN BRAZIL

A front stays stalled across south-central Brazil and will only drift slightly northward over the next couple days. Scattered showers that are occurring are much-needed, but east-central Brazil is not forecast to see much rainfall anymore. The southern state of Rio Grande do Sul, which is a big producer of full-season corn and soybeans, is filling its crops with poor conditions. West-central states continue to see scattered wet-season showers and overall fair conditions.

FRONT MOVING THROUGH ARGENTINA, GETTING DRIER

Though a front is moving through with limited showers across central Argentina early Wednesday, overall dry conditions are expected for the next week. Temperatures are milder the next couple of days, but could be stressful for areas that have been drier next week, particularly across the north. Southern and central areas can handle some drier conditions after the recent heavy rainfall.

MORE RAIN NEEDED IN EASTERN EUROPE

A series of systems will continue to move through Europe this week, producing scattered showers, particularly across the south and east. Northwestern areas that do not need much rain right now are only getting light amounts. Warm temperatures have allowed more of the wheat crop to break dormancy, doing so in fairly good condition in most areas. Temperatures rise again next week in overall drier conditions. We will see storms moving back into western areas by late next week, though. Spain should continue to see beneficial rainfall as well.

DRY BLACK SEA CONDITIONS CONCERNING FOR GREENING WHEAT

Temperatures continue to be very warm in the Black Sea region, encouraging green-up for winter wheat. However, soils are very dry, and wheat will find overall poor conditions. An active pattern over Europe will only produce streaks of precipitation across Ukraine and southwestern Russia. Northern sections stand to benefit the most and some areas are likely to remain dry across the south, continuing the poor weather conditions.

EASTERN AUSTRALIA RECOVERING FROM TROPICAL CYCLONE ALFRED

Eastern Australia continues to recover from Tropical Cyclone Alfred and its flooding rain around Brisbane. Cotton and sorghum areas farther inland have seen scattered showers and areas of heavy rainfall, and could have seen enough rain to drop quality and push back harvest. Drier conditions going into next week should be more favorable for recovery.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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