Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Very warm temperatures and a big spring storm system for the U.S. later this week, mixed conditions in South America, and warmth and dryness in the Black Sea region are the weather factors driving the markets Monday.

VERY WARM IN THE MIDWEST, BIG STORM COMING LATE WEEK

A system continued through the Midwest on Friday with scattered showers. Warm temperatures began to flood the region over the weekend though and will be very warm this week. Any remaining snow in the northwest will melt away. Drought continues to have a grip on much of the region. But a massive storm system is forecast to move through Friday and Saturday, producing widespread showers and thunderstorms, some severe weather, and strong winds. Additional systems are expected to move through behind it next week, which may help somewhat with the drought situation.

BOMB CYCLONE EYEING CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS AFTER WARM WEEK

A system went through the Central and Southern Plains with snow across the far north on Friday and a mix of rain and snow across the south on Saturday. With warm temperatures filling in over the weekend, the snow is quickly melting away, building soil moisture in these limited areas. Drought still covers a large portion of the region, however. Much of this week will be warm and dry, with very limited showers in the southeast on Wednesday. A massive storm system, a bomb cyclone, is forecast to move into the region on Friday and is likely to produce precipitation. However, areas to the north and east are more likely to receive substantial amounts. This region is more likely to see wind and wind damage from the storm instead. An overall lack of precipitation, above-normal temperatures, and strong winds will lead to lowering soil moisture for greening winter wheat and forages.

VERY WARM IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS, SNOW TO END THE WEEK

It was dry in the Northern Plains over the weekend with increasing temperatures. Most of this week will be quiet and warm, but a system that moves through on Friday is forecast to bring scattered showers and snow, and the snow may be heavy in some spots. Strong winds could make for blizzard conditions, as well. With the drought continuing to be an issue heading into spring with no snowpack, this storm would be helpful for building up some soil moisture. Much more is needed, however.

SOIL MOISTURE IN DELTA REGION VERY HIGH

A system went through the Delta region with scattered showers over the weekend, but water levels continue to fall along the Mississippi and most of the tributaries, which should help flood waters recede and soils to dry out somewhat. A small system will move through on Wednesday night with some showers, but a massive storm system moving through the country is likely to produce lines and clusters of thunderstorms for Friday and just to the east on Saturday, which may be more significant and include severe weather. Additional systems next week could also add water to the region, which may slow down early planting.

FRONT MOVING NORTH THROUGH BRAZIL

A front moved into southern Brazil over the weekend, bringing some needed moisture and a break from the heat. The front stays stalled out for a couple of days before lifting northward later in the week and bringing showers up to dry areas in east-central Brazil. The state of Rio Grande do Sul, which is a big producer of full-season corn and soybeans, is filling with poor conditions. While rains fell this weekend, the dryness there continues to be a concern. West-central states continue to see scattered wet-season showers and overall fair conditions.

COOLER AND QUIETER IN ARGENTINA

A front lifted north out of Argentina over the weekend, ending the run of wet weather across the central and south. Northern areas got some rain, but not enough to limit the falling soil moisture there. Temperatures fell behind that front though, wiping out the stressful heat. Though a front will move through with limited showers Monday and Tuesday, overall dry conditions are expected this week.

MORE RAIN NEEDED IN EASTERN EUROPE

Scattered showers around Spain spread to France over the weekend as a multi-piece system spread into the continent. Several pieces of energy will move through this week, producing scattered showers. Northwestern areas that do not need much rain right now will not get overly heavy amounts. But areas around the Mediterranean will receive much more. That includes dry areas around southeastern Europe, though that is more scattered than across Spain and Italy. Very warm temperatures across the continent will allow more of the wheat crop to break dormancy.

DRY BLACK SEA CONDITIONS CONCERNING FOR GREENING WHEAT

Temperatures continue to be very warm in the Black Sea region, encouraging green-up for winter wheat. However, soils are very dry and wheat will find overall poor conditions. An active pattern over Europe will not translate to heavy precipitation across Ukraine or southwestern Russia, but showers will move through and the region will take whatever it can get. Northern sections stand to benefit the most and some areas are likely to remain dry across the south, continuing the poor weather conditions.

EASTERN AUSTRALIA RECOVERING FROM TROPICAL CYCLONE ALFRED

Tropical Cyclone Alfred moved into southern Queensland, Australia on Friday and dumped a ton of rain around Brisbane, where flooding has been most extreme. Cotton and sorghum areas farther inland did not see nearly the heavy rainfall as coastal areas did, but could have seen enough rain to drop quality and push back harvest. Showers continue here in eastern Australia through Wednesday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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