Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A progressive pattern in the U.S. that will bring warmth and more storm systems through the country, hot and dry conditions in parts of Brazil and the end of heavy rain in Argentina are the weather factors driving the markets Friday.

STORM WEAKENING AS IT MOVES THROUGH MIDWEST

A strong spring storm brought widespread precipitation to the Midwest earlier this week. A smaller system is moving through Friday with showers that are falling apart throughout the day. Two more systems are forecast to move through next week and the second one for late next week and weekend could be another big one. Temperatures are in a roller coaster type of pattern as several systems move through. Between systems, temperatures will be quite warm, quickly melting snow.

TWO-PART SYSTEM CONTINUES IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

A system is moving through the Central Plains Friday with snow across the north. A secondary piece to the system will move through the Southern Plains with showers on Saturday. Temperatures continue to waffle with the systems moving through, including rising over the weekend into early next week that could be significantly warm. Two more systems will move through next week, though only the one late next week is forecast to produce significant precipitation.

NORTHERN PLAINS QUIETER WITH RISING TEMPERATURES

A system clipped the far southern Northern Plains with snow on Thursday. Temperatures will rise again over the weekend. With the warmth and overall lack of precipitation, drought continues to be an issue for much of the region, which may grow over the next week. The next best chance for precipitation occurs with a larger system late next week.

SOIL MOISTURE IN DELTA REGION STAYING WELL STOCKED

Water levels on the Mississippi and Ohio Rivers are lower than they were last week but remain high, and soil moisture is still an issue for spring planting. A smaller system will move through over the weekend, and a couple more systems are forecast for next week. That could ignite some more flooding and keep water levels and soil moisture high, disrupting early planting.

HOT AND DRY SOUTHERN, EASTERN BRAZIL

Wet-season showers have been consistent in and around Mato Grosso in the middle of Brazil. But other areas have been much drier and hotter, leading to harsher conditions for immature corn and soybeans and the newly planted safrinha crop. A front will move up from Argentina this weekend and slowly push north next week, which may provide some better showers for southern and eastern areas.

HEAVY RAIN IN ARGENTINA ENDS THIS WEEKEND

Wet conditions from stalled fronts have reduced any further damage from the dry and hot conditions in early February for Argentina, but have led to a flooding issue in some areas as well. Northern areas have not had nearly as much rainfall and high temperatures near or eclipsing 100 degrees have caused undue stress for immature corn and soybeans this week. A stalled front will lift north through the country this weekend, leading to cooler and drier conditions next week.

MORE RAIN NEEDED IN EASTERN EUROPE

Scattered showers have been consistent in Spain all week while other areas were drier, favorable in the northwest, but not for portions of the east that are still too dry as wheat begins to green up. A system will move through Europe this weekend into next week, likely in several impulses. That is forecast to spread showers through much of the winter wheat growing areas on the continent.

DRY BLACK SEA CONDITIONS CONCERNING FOR GREENING WHEAT

Temperatures continue to be very warm in the Black Sea region, encouraging green-up for winter wheat. However, soils are very dry, and wheat will find overall poor conditions. The storm track has been well off to the north this week, keeping most of the region unfavorably dry. There appears to be a better chance for meaningful rain later next week.

TROPICAL CYCLONE ALFRED HITTING EASTERN AUSTRALIA

The cotton and sorghum crops in Australia are heading toward maturity with early harvest starting up. Tropical Cyclone Alfred will move into southern Queensland on Friday, which may produce major impacts for unharvested cotton and sorghum. Coastal areas should get the brunt of the storm, but heavy rain may continue inland and through northern New South Wales over the weekend as well.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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