Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A progressive pattern in the U.S. that will bring more storm systems through the country, good rain but only in parts of central Brazil and the end of heavy rain in Argentina are the weather factors driving the markets Thursday.

MORE STORMS COMING THROUGH MIDWEST IN BUSY MARCH PATTERN

A strong spring storm brought widespread precipitation to the Midwest over the last couple of days, including heavy northwestern snow and strong winds that caused blizzard conditions. A smaller system will follow it Thursday night and Friday with more scattered showers and potential for snow. Two more systems are forecast to move through next week, and the second one for late next week and weekend could be another big one. Temperatures are in a roller coaster type of pattern as several systems move through. Between systems, temperatures will be quite warm, quickly melting snow.

NEXT SYSTEM ENTERS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY

A big spring storm moved through the Central and Southern Plains on Tuesday with widespread precipitation, severe weather across the south, heavy snow across the north and strong winds that may have caused some damage. Another system will move through Thursday and Friday with snow across the north. A secondary piece to the system will move through southern areas with showers on Saturday. Temperatures continue to waffle with the systems moving through, including rising over the weekend into early next week that could be significantly warm. Two more systems will move through next week, though only one late next week is forecast to produce significant precipitation.

NORTHERN PLAINS QUIETER, HIGHER TEMPERATURES COMING

A system will push by to the south of the Northern Plains Thursday but may only clip the far southern areas of the region with snow. Temperatures will rise again behind that system. With the warmth and lack of precipitation, drought continues to be an issue for much of the region, which may grow over the next week. The next best chance for precipitation occurs with a larger system late next week.

SOIL MOISTURE IN DELTA REGION STAYING WELL STOCKED

Water levels started falling on the Mississippi and Ohio Rivers late last week and weekend, but high soil moisture in the Delta is still an issue. A big storm moved through with widespread moderate to heavy rain earlier this week. A smaller system will move through over the weekend and a couple more systems are forecast for next week. That could ignite some more flooding over the next couple of weeks and keep water levels and soil moisture high, disrupting early planting.

HOT AND DRY SOUTHERN, EASTERN BRAZIL

Wet-season showers have been consistent in and around Mato Grosso in the middle of Brazil. But other areas have been much drier and hotter, leading to harsher conditions for immature corn and soybeans and the newly planted safrinha crop. A front will move up from Argentina this weekend and early next week, which may provide some better showers for more areas, especially across the south.

HEAVY RAIN IN ARGENTINA ENDS THIS WEEKEND

Wet conditions from stalled fronts have reduced any further damage from the dry and hot conditions in early February for much of Argentina, but have also led to a flooding issue in some areas. A stalled front and parade of systems will continue to sweep across southern and central areas for the next couple of days, easing more drought concerns, but potentially causing more flooding as well. Northern areas have not had nearly as much rainfall and high temperatures near or eclipsing 100 degrees Fahrenheit have caused undue stress in these areas for immature corn and soybeans. The front will lift north through the country this weekend, leading to cooler and drier conditions next week.

MORE RAIN NEEDED IN EASTERN EUROPE

Scattered showers continue in Spain for the rest of this week while other areas in Europe are drier, favorable in the northwest, but not for portions of the east that are still too dry. A system will move through the continent this weekend into next week, likely in several impulses. That is forecast to spread showers through much of the winter wheat growing areas on the continent.

DRY BLACK SEA CONDITIONS CONCERNING FOR GREENING WHEAT

Temperatures continue to be very warm in the Black Sea region, encouraging green-up for winter wheat. However, soils are very dry and greening wheat will find overall poor conditions. The storm track has been well off to the north this week, keeping most of the region unfavorably dry. There appears to be a better chance for meaningful rain later next week.

TROPICAL CYCLONE ALFRED HITTING EASTERN AUSTRALIA

The cotton and sorghum crops in Australia are heading toward maturity with early harvest starting up. Tropical Cyclone Alfred is just off the east coast and is forecast to move into southern Queensland on Friday, which may produce major impacts for unharvested cotton and sorghum. Coastal areas should get the brunt of the storm and are already being affected by the storm.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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