Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Above-normal temperatures in the U.S., increasing showers in central Brazil and heavy rain for parts of Argentina are the weather factors driving the markets Tuesday.

ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES, LIMITED SHOWERS FOR THE MIDWEST

Temperatures rose in the Midwest over the weekend and will stay warm most of the week. Several clippers will move through this week, but with overall limited precipitation. Cooler temperatures will likely move through eastern areas behind a system this weekend. A larger system is forecast for the middle of next week, followed by milder air.

WARM BUT QUIET IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Warm conditions have melted the remaining snow in the Central and Southern Plains. Several clippers will pass by to the north this week, but outside of a few spotty showers, it should be drier. A small system will move into the region on Sunday with more potent showers across the south and a larger system is forecast for early-mid next week with more widespread showers.

VERY WARM IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS

Temperatures remain very warm in the Northern Plains. Clipper systems moving through several times this week may bring some winds and brief showers, but most areas will stay warm and dry this week. Temperatures are likely to fall next week, but not nearly to the same degree we saw last week.

WATER LEVELS CRESTING ON THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER

It was largely dry over the weekend, allowing water levels to crest in many areas of the Mississippi and Ohio Valley Rivers. Southern areas saw heavier rain, though. Water levels should start falling later this week and weekend, but barge traffic may still be slower with the flooding along the Ohio and Mississippi Rivers and their tributaries. A drier pattern this week should help the rivers to fall into a more manageable range.

RAIN FOR CENTRAL BRAZIL

Favorable weather the last couple of weeks have allowed producers to catch up to the normal pace for soybean harvest and safrinha corn planting in central Brazil. Some of the crop is deemed late planted, but it is typical for this time of year. However, the drier conditions that have allowed for the progress are somewhat stressful for the newly planted corn. Showers will be scattered this week, typical for this time of year, though areas in the east and south will have much lower coverage, unfavorable for any immature full-season crops or newly planted safrinha crops.

HEAVY RAIN IN ARGENTINA

Hot and dry conditions over the weekend were very stressful for corn and soybeans in Argentina. However, a front moved into the far south and will remain in southern states for the next couple of days. That has already produced some heavy rainfall and will continue to do so until the front gets pushed north on Thursday or Friday, wiping out the heat. Another system will move through this weekend with more widespread rain and leave a front over the country that looks to stay active next week. Hot and dry conditions in January and much of February have caused some damage for both corn and soybeans, though more favorable weather is forecast into early March.

MORE RAIN NEEDED IN EASTERN EUROPE

Scattered showers that moved through western Europe over the weekend are spreading eastward into drier areas of the continent this week, but not with much intensity. Rainfall has been favorable in Spain, but not in France or the UK, which have been very wet for a long time. Showers wane this weekend across the east and some dry days are forecast into next week, at least for a little while.

COLD AIR IN THE BLACK SEA THREATENS WINTER WHEAT

Cold temperatures in the Black Sea region last week will be slow to erode this week. Areas near the Caucuses, which do not have much protective snow cover have been and continue to be at risk for winterkill. Limited snowfall this week will not add much protection. Drought continues to be a major concern as the winter crop should be awakening from dormancy over the next several weeks in mostly poor condition in the east. More precipitation is needed, but the prospects are low until late next week.

DRIER IN AUSTRALIA

Temperatures are increasing in Australia this week and will be stressful for immature cotton and sorghum. Systems will be largely passing by well to the south with limited or no precipitation this week. Tropical Cyclone Alfred is forecast to stay well north of the main cotton and sorghum areas this week but will be watched to see if it moves into Queensland next week.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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