Ag Weather Forum

Spring flood outlooks for river basins in the contiguous U.S. are being issued -- a sign that, even in the midst of bitter cold and snow, milder conditions are ahead. For the vast portion of the country that lies within the Missouri River basin, this year's flood outlook has good news in terms of flooding itself, but also brings a point of concern when it comes to soil moisture.

Just looking at flood potential, the National Weather Service Spring Flood Outlook, which was posted Thursday, Feb. 13, 2025, calls for below-normal spring flood conditions. Spring flood information is important because most river basin flooding occurs in the months of March, April and May. The National Weather Service noted, "Information can help decision makers and those with river interests prepare, in order to protect life and property." So, from the aspect of concern over a flood threat to land and buildings in flood-risk areas, that's a favorable outlook for this coming spring season.

However, the reason for that below-normal flood threat brings a point of concern when it comes to thinking about the 2025 crop season. The reason for the below-normal flood threat is, quoting from the National Weather Service commentary, "... due to ongoing drought conditions." And indeed, the Missouri River basin has more intense dryness and drought in effect ahead of spring 2025 than the basin had a year ago.

The U.S. Drought Monitor Feb. 11, 2025, showed almost 81% of the Missouri River basin was in some phase of dryness or drought. That includes 65.8% in D1 to D4 (Moderate, Severe, Extreme or Exceptional Drought) compared with only 22.8% of the basin at these drought levels last year. Also in the Missouri basin, close to one-third (32.4%) of the basin is in the more severe drought stages of D2 to D4 versus just 5.5% in mid-February 2024. The Drought Severity and Coverage Index (DSCI) for the basin this year in mid-February is 186, more than double the DSCI value of 82 in the basin at the same time a year ago.

We're of course not looking at just a small part of U.S. crop country when the Missouri River basin is considered. The Missouri basin takes in all the farmland in Nebraska and Montana; a large majority of South Dakota; around one-third of Iowa; much of the productive northern half of Kansas; most of northern and western Missouri; central and western North Dakota; a portion of southwestern Minnesota; and much of the crop production in Colorado and Wyoming.

Snowfall in winter storms since the first of the year has brought only light amounts of actual moisture at best. Bitter cold air means the ratio of snowfall to liquid moisture is close to 20 inches of snow to 1 inch of liquid moisture. That's "champagne powder" if you're on the ski slopes, but it means very little when it comes to the soil moisture profile.

This scenario means spring precipitation will have more importance for farmland in the Missouri River basin as we look ahead to the 2025 growing season. The dryness now in effect, with its implications for row-crop conditions later, is definitely the other side of the coin when it comes to a lower-than-normal flood outlook.

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