DTN Ag Weather Brief
DTN Ag Weather Brief
There is a ridge across much of the U.S. with a trough in the Pacific Northwest. The trough will continue to send some energy eastward through next week. A trough will build over southern Canada next week and put pressure on the ridge, which will try to oppose it as best as it can, but be forced down into the Southeast.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:The trough will continually build across the West and deepen, keeping the storm track busy next week. The ridge looks like it will try to push back northwest late next week, but the trough will move through next weekend before reloading in the Pacific Northwest the following week.
The U.S. and European models are fairly similar, but differ with the details. I will use a blend but favor the European.
A system will move through the country mid next week across the south, another will go through the country over the weekend. Cold in the Northwest will push south through most of next week. Warmth will try to hold on over the Southeast and push back northwest ahead of the weekend storm before that moves through. Another round of cold air is likely to follow through much of the country.
NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:HIGH THU...97 AT RIO GRANDE VILLAGE, TX
LOW THU...28 BELOW ZERO AT DUNKIRK, MT
24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT THURSDAY...CHARLESTON, WV 3.44 INCHES
US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6- TO 10-DAY PERIOD:There is a ridge across much of the U.S. with a trough in the Pacific Northwest. The trough will continue to send some energy eastward through next week. A trough will build over southern Canada next week and put pressure on the ridge, which will try to oppose it as best as it can, but be forced down into the Southeast. That will cause the trough to continually build across the West and deepen, keeping the storm track busy. The ridge looks like it will try to push back northwest late next week, but the trough will move through next weekend before reloading in the Pacific Northwest the following week.
The U.S. and European models are fairly similar, but differ with the details.
I will use a blend but favor the European.
A system will move through the country mid next week across the south, another will go through the country over the weekend. Cold in the Northwest will push south through most of next week. Warmth will try to hold on over the Southeast and push back northwest ahead of the weekend storm before that moves through. Another round of cold air is likely to follow through much of the country.
MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT): Cold air will be hard to get rid of this month. The primary storm track will be to the south, but some precipitation will move through this month as well, especially Friday into Saturday. Any and all precipitation will help the drought situation.
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT): A system moving through Friday and Saturday is unlikely to bring much precipitation through, but temperatures will fall behind it. The weather pattern will be active next week, bringing through multiple chances for precipitation. If snow does not fall across enough of an area, the cold air will be a concern for winterkill on wheat.
MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT): A system will move through Friday night and Saturday, spreading a mix of precipitation types across the region. Cold air in the Northern Plains will move into the region behind the system, replacing the general warmth from this week. That pushes the storm track to the south, but will still clip at least the southern end of the region with precipitation with a couple storms next week. Another system may move through more of the region next weekend.
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (TRANSPORTATION): An active weather pattern in February is likely to keep water levels up going into spring. Multiple storm systems will move through the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys with showers over the next couple of weeks and maintain or increase water levels. At some point, it may get a little too high in some spots.
BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS): Wet season showers in central Brazil have been much spottier this week, offering up another window for fieldwork to get done.
However, showers are still going across productive areas in the west and south and could lengthen delays for some. Showers are forecast to extend their coverage next week, but should be able to be worked around. Fieldwork is well behind the normal pace and the window is very short for making for timely planting of safrinha corn, which is being watched closely.
ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): A front moved through southern areas on Wednesday, bringing through some heavier rain to areas that have seen very little over the last several weeks. That should help to stabilize crop conditions, but not make for much of a turnaround. Another period of hot and dry weather continues through the weekend. A front will move through early-mid next week, with better chances for rain over northern crop areas, which would be beneficial after the last couple of weeks of heat. However, that wouldn't help many other areas across the south. There is potential for more rain farther south later next week or weekend and beyond, however.
EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT): It has been drier for much of this week, but areas in the west will see showers developing into next week. That would favor Spain, Italy, and parts of northern Africa with needed precipitation for vegetative wheat. But France will stay too wet. And areas in the east will remain too dry.
BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT): Wheat went dormant in good condition in the west, but poor condition in the east, particularly in southwestern Russia. Showers haven't been heavy or consistent enough to boost soil moisture. A system brought areas of moderate rain and snow earlier this week, but missed others and much more is needed before wheat breaks dormancy this spring. The forecast is for dry conditions for the next two weeks. Though temperatures are forecast to be cooler than they have been, there are no risks of significant cold that would be a large concern for winterkill on exposed wheat. However, models are starting to focus on a period mid-to-late February that could be more concerning for cold.
AUSTRALIA (COTTON/SORGHUM): Isolated showers continue to move through southeastern areas this week, helping immature cotton and sorghum where they hit. Multiple areas of tropical activity continue over northern sections of Australia, but are generally not a concern for southern or eastern farming areas as of the current forecast.
EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)
Summary:
West: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.
East: Scattered showers. Temperatures above normal.
Forecast:
West: Scattered showers Friday night-Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday. Scattered showers Monday night-Tuesday. Temperatures near to below normal north and above normal south through Saturday, near to below normal Sunday-Monday, below normal Tuesday.
East: Mostly dry Friday. Scattered showers Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday-Monday.
Scattered showers Tuesday. Temperatures near to below normal north and above normal south through Saturday, near to below normal Sunday-Tuesday.
6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday-Thursday, mostly south. Scattered showers Friday-Sunday. Temperatures below normal Wednesday-Friday, below normal north and above normal south Saturday, below normal Sunday.
Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)
Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to well above normal.
Forecast: Mostly dry Friday. Isolated showers Saturday, southeast Sunday.
Isolated to scattered showers Monday-Tuesday. Temperatures near to well above normal Friday, near to below normal north and well above normal south Saturday, near to below normal Sunday-Tuesday.
6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Friday. Isolated to scattered showers Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday.
Temperatures below to well below normal Wednesday-Thursday, below normal north and above normal south Friday-Saturday, below normal Sunday.
Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...
Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures near to above normal.
Forecast: Isolated showers north through Monday. Isolated showers Tuesday.
Temperatures near to above normal through Sunday, above normal Monday-Tuesday.
Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...
Summary: Isolated showers west. Temperatures near to above normal.
Forecast: Scattered showers through west through Saturday. Scattered showers Sunday-Tuesday. Temperatures near to above normal through Saturday, near normal Sunday-Tuesday.
Teresa Wells can be reached at Teresa.Wells@dtn.com
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