Ag Weather Forum

The last several months have seen a big improvement in drought conditions over the eastern Midwest. Back in late October, some phase of dryness or drought covered more than 88% of the National Weather Service Ohio Valley River Forecast Center region, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. That dryness notably affected corn yields. USDA's 2024 annual crop summary showed the Ohio corn yield at 177 bushels per acre (bpa), 21 bpa less than in 2023. Other states in the Ohio Valley had yield declines as well, ranging from 5 to 20 bpa less than 2023.

The scene, at least in terms of drought assessment, is much more favorable in early 2025. The late-January U.S. Drought Monitor placed just 26% of the National Weather Service Ohio Valley forecast region in some phase of dryness or drought -- about 70% less than at the end of October 2024. Even the hardest-hit portion of the region -- southeast Ohio, northern West Virginia and southwest Pennsylvania -- has shown improvement of three drought categories, from Exceptional Drought (D4) to Moderate Drought (D1).

Several short- and longer-term atmospheric features have helped bring moisture back to the Ohio Valley region. In late September 2024, the Ohio Valley's location placed it in line for favorable rains from the remnants of Hurricane Helene compared with the catastrophic flooding that occurred in the southern Appalachians. Additional periods of moisture occurred as the atmosphere became more active across the Midwest during the last three months of 2024.

"The active pattern in late fall and since has been more due to the MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation) and Pacific Trough scenario in the northern Pacific," DTN Ag Meteorologist John Baranick said.

That viewpoint is echoed by Ohio State Climatologist Aaron Wilson. "I would say that conditions have improved when it comes to precipitation and some impacts on the surface, including soil moisture, pasture conditions and water levels since early November," Wilson said in an email. "The improvements began as the pattern became more active in November and December."

Looking to the remainder of winter and into the spring season, climate and weather experts agree that La Nina in the Pacific Ocean, which developed later than expected, has begun to influence the Ohio Valley's moisture fortunes. One of La Nina's notable features is a storm track configuration that focuses on precipitation in the eastern Midwest. "We have been waiting for this (La Nina) pattern to really kick in, and signs are there for sure," Wilson said.

NOAA Central Region Climate Services Director Doug Kluck agreed that La Nina is likely to have a greater impact on Ohio Valley precipitation during the last few weeks of winter and into spring. "Often, it is the late winter into early spring (February-March) that La Nina has the largest impact across the Ohio Basin and surrounding areas," Kluck said in an email.

Baranick noted that La Nina could enhance an expected stormy pattern over the central U.S. during the first half of February. A stormy pattern suggests a collection of chances for additional precipitation across the Midwest. "Yeah, it's going to be quite the active pattern ... offering up multiple chances for rain and snow events. We've got seemingly four (storm systems) in the pipeline for the next 10 days or so," Baranick said. "If La Nina can hang on, this would extend farther out as well."

Drought is not over in the Ohio Valley, though. In the driest pockets of the region, livestock owners are still hauling water to cattle. There is also not much mud in the countryside due to precipitation soaking into a dry soil profile. And for Wilson, this lack of muddy fields means there is still room for more drought relief ahead of spring. "We still need multiple weeks of above-average precipitation to get what I would call a decent ground (moisture) situation for this year's planting season," Wilson said.

Bryce Anderson can be reached at bryce.anderson@dtn.com

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